***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

Even if we take the numbers from today or yesterday the death % is 1.8% which in my under 65 study equates to 0.36% so if anything although yes the case numbers are up (which includes a mixture of untested probably cases) the death rate is down quite a bit from original thoughts back in March or April.
This would actually make pneumonia much deadlier on death scale, pneumonia just isn't as spreadable apparently considering about 50k die each year from it in the US.

the deaths lag 4 to 6 weeks...


We're just rolling into them again.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

I fully expected total deaths to shrink as we moved through time.

I wasn't talking about the total deaths.


Daily deaths. Should have been obvious to anyone by simply reading the post I quoted.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Arizona looking better and Texas and Florida appear to be plateauing but now other states are starting to potentially take off

Just not good

I guess we know which cities are next.

Dr. Birx warned leaders in a private phone call today that 11 major cities seeing increases in COVID-19 and should take “aggressive” steps to stop outbreaks.

They are Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Indy, Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New Orleans, Pitts. & St. Louis.

— Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) July 23, 2020

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by jdubya

What happens to the numbers if you eliminate Covid deaths from pts from nursing homes/convalescent hospitals?

Would be pretty curious to see that. Not sure where to find that number of nursing home Covid deaths though.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I guess we know which cities are next.

Dr. Birx warned leaders in a private phone call today that 11 major cities seeing increases in COVID-19 and should take “aggressive” steps to stop outbreaks.

They are Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Indy, Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New Orleans, Pitts. & St. Louis.

— Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) July 23, 2020

St. Louis has already taken it on the chin. That's not good.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

St. Louis has already taken it on the chin. That's not good.

New Orleans has as well.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by TLO

There's a lot of research that actually shows it has some sort of protective effect.

Top 10 Things Science Can't Explain

The layer of nicotine in my lungs creates an impenetrable barrier for teh COVID.

SMOKE 'EM IF YOU GOT' EM

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I guess we know which cities are next.

Dr. Birx warned leaders in a private phone call today that 11 major cities seeing increases in COVID-19 and should take “aggressive” steps to stop outbreaks.

They are Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Indy, Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New Orleans, Pitts. & St. Louis.

— Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) July 23, 2020

Why on Earth is that "private" information?

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is. But i used what was given to me based on worldometers USA coronavirus numbers.

I wanted to see what the US death rate would be if we removed the anomalies of NY and NJ which are far and away higher than the rest of the country.

So after removing those states you divide 3,452,310 (cases) by 97,197 (reported deaths) and this gives you a 2.8% death rate. But I also wanted to see the death rate of people under 65 years old, considering we know that roughly 80% of the deaths are the elderly over 65+. You take 20% of 2.8% and that gives you a death rate of 0.56% for anyone under 65. And of course as you lower the age your percentage would go down further. Just some interesting numbers I found earlier.

No Thats Not How This Works GIF from No GIFs

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

No Thats Not How This Works GIF from No GIFs

I'd bet my prostate that KCrockaholic does not have a degree in statistics.

[KCrockaholic]

You guys didn't like my stats but also have no numbers to refute it

I purely used numbers from worldometers minus NY and NJ out of my own curiosity. If there's an issue with statistics here, talk to the numbers.

Some would rather live in fear than enjoy the possibilities of joy towards positive signs of progress and maybe things aren't quite as bad as the TV says they are. Suddenly we're defending the TV.

[BWillie]

Rut roh. Not sure how accurate this is, but I've never seen serious/critical cases above 15-17k before. It is at 19k+ right now. Perhaps the deaths of 2k+ a day are coming.

I just want to see Mahomes play football. That's it. I'll sacrifice Jayhawk basketball season even, just get football figured out.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

You guys didn't like my stats but also have no numbers to refute it

I purely used numbers from worldometers minus NY and NJ out of my own curiosity. If there's an issue with statistics here, talk to the numbers.

Some would rather live in fear than enjoy the possibilities of joy towards positive signs of progress and maybe things aren't quite as bad as the TV says they are. Suddenly we're defending the TV.

[MahomesMagic]

In just a few short months Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s unique response to the Covid-19 pandemic, has gone from unknown physician and technocrat to a household celebrity in Sweden and in countries around the world. He is beloved by some (people have even had tattoos made with his face) and intensely disliked by others. Today he is suntanned and relaxed, having just returned from his summer holiday, and wearing an open-necked polo shirt. Here is a summary of what he said:

- In terms of migrants, travel and urban areas Sweden is more similar to the Netherlands and the UK than Norway or Finland
- Lockdown may have made a difference, but closing schools and people being out of work is also bad for public health
- Numbers of new infections arriving at the same time seems to make a big difference, so Stockholm half-term travellers to the Alps a big factor for Stockholm epidemic
- Eradication is not an option, ‘we have to learn to live with this disease’
- Evidence for masks still very weak, and they may yet be counterproductive. With all the trends going sharply down, it would make no sense to introduce them now
- Additional immunity such as T cells playing a substantial role in slowing spread – ‘what we see right now is a rapid fall in the number of cases, and of course some kind of immunity has to be involved in that as nothing else has changed.’
- Sweden will be better placed than other countries to limit further waves and outbreaks because of higher immunity

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

I mean, I'm not sure his math checks out but the point remains. This is a virus that devours old people. Young people, even middle aged people in their 40's with no comorbidities have very little risk. Children have almost no risk.

But as a society we struggle with nuance and exceptions to the rule.

With that said, I'm a staunch supporter of masks and that this thing is about to get out of control in a few months. Old people need to be protected by whatever means necessary. If I was in charge, I would not allow people 60+ years to even work or people with a pre-existing condition. These individuals would get stipends or UBI. The rest of the population, keep on trucking. I would tell families to think about limiting any get togethers especially with old nana and grandpa. They might be lonely over zoom, but at least they aren't dead. I would try to enact case law against individuals that know they have coronavirus but still maintained contact with an elderly person making them potentially liable for their death (ok not sure how you could prove it but we could figure something out to scare people from killing their grandparents)