***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Dirk you were taking about the school studies, I think the Iceland one was the best. They looked at the genetics of where each positive got it.

Thanks I just read some of it. It kind of mirrors the SK study where under 10 seem less likely.



Btw here is tweet thread from an epidemiologist who went over the latest school\child studies.

1. Updated thread on children and #COVID19, summarising the latest research.

Summary: schools can only reopen safely if community transmission is low, otherwise outbreaks will occur.#SchoolReopening #edutwitter #edchat #edchatEU #auspol #Schulen #école #enfants

— Dr Zoë Hyde (@DrZoeHyde) July 25, 2020

[petegz28]

Okay so the two had filled out paperwork but never got tested. Not sure how they got notified and not sure if it was a drive-up test like the one was or not

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[MahomesMagic]

Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.

Yes, that makes complete sense.

[lewdog]

I am willing to donate my plasma for convalescent plasma in treatment for COVID. I don't know much about donating plasma in general. Does anyone here do it?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Don't be a coward and just call out pete for being a liar.

I wasn't implying he was lying. However, he does have a tendency of taking things at face value without actually trying to understand the reality of the situation, which is why I was asking what exactly was actually known vs. what was conjecture.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, that makes complete sense.

Actually it makes more sense than you obviously are giving it credit for. While it is hyperbole to state something like this is "over" it is reasonable to use excess deaths as a more accurate gauge than what we are currently using for reporting. When you have a disease that is so heavily weighted toward the elderly with comorbidities, there is going to be a certain skew to the data that can be overcome by looking at excess deaths. For example, an 85 year old with cancer that gets covid and dies, or a 90 year old with severe diabetes has covid and dies. You are going to count them as COVID deaths because there is no way to know on an individual basis how long each would live... but by looking at excess deaths we can see on a larger scale how the numbers are truly playing out.

It isn't perfect though because it doesn't account for immediate lockdown related increases (abuse, suicide, etc) or lockdown related decreases (dui, etc) and the of course it all gets skewed down the road due to the number of people who have ignored other health issues due to fear of going to a doctor or the hospital.

[KCUnited]

So are we all gathering on mt stoopid looking down on the cdc just for school reopenings or the rest of the other stuff they've said as well?

[Demonpenz]

Salvy and Solar back to back.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Actually it makes more sense than you obviously are giving it credit for. While it is hyperbole to state something like this is "over" it is reasonable to use excess deaths as a more accurate gauge than what we are currently using for reporting. When you have a disease that is so heavily weighted toward the elderly with comorbidities, there is going to be a certain skew to the data that can be overcome by looking at excess deaths. For example, an 85 year old with cancer that gets covid and dies, or a 90 year old with severe diabetes has covid and dies. You are going to count them as COVID deaths because there is no way to know on an individual basis how long each would live... but by looking at excess deaths we can see on a larger scale how the numbers are truly playing out.

It isn't perfect though because it doesn't account for immediate lockdown related increases (abuse, suicide, etc) or lockdown related decreases (dui, etc) and the of course it all gets skewed down the road due to the number of people who have ignored other health issues due to fear of going to a doctor or the hospital.

Yes, it's rather hyperbolic to say it will be over in four weeks when we are presently seeing new daily cases three times what is was. In March. We are also seeing a rather dramatic uptick in new deaths, which follows the new case growth.

Hopefully, we can get that under control to some extent soon.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, it's rather hyperbolic to say it will be over in four weeks when we are presently seeing new daily cases three times what is was. In March. We are also seeing a rather dramatic uptick in new deaths, which follows the new case growth.

Hopefully, we can get that under control to some extent soon.

So, clearly you missed the entire point being made by me about excess deaths as a metric.

If you instead just care to attack his premise as being ridiculous... it depends on what he means by "over." If you look at UK data they were on an upswing until they hit a peak and 4 weeks later were clearly halfway down the curve to normal death rates (actually slightly lower). So, 4 weeks is not at all a ridiculous timeframe. I don't personally have that point of view mostly because I look at the US regionally or state by state, I'm not really concerned with the overall picture as it doesn't really mean much data wise. It would not be out the question though for enough of the US to be over the curve that the areas that are not there yet would have little effect on the overall picture. (It's not my belief that it will happen in that timeframe but somewhat plausible)

[Donger]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

So, clearly you missed the entire point being made by me about excess deaths as a metric.

If you instead just care to attack his premise as being ridiculous... it depends on what he means by "over." If you look at UK data they were on an upswing until they hit a peak and 4 weeks later were clearly halfway down the curve to normal death rates (actually slightly lower). So, 4 weeks is not at all a ridiculous timeframe. I don't personally have that point of view mostly because I look at the US regionally or state by state, I'm not really concerned with the overall picture as it doesn't really mean much data wise. It would not be out the question though for enough of the US to be over the curve that the areas that are not there yet would have little effect on the overall picture. (It's not my belief that it will happen in that timeframe but somewhat plausible)

No, I didn't miss it. I just haven't seen any indication that we're going to see excess deaths get to near zero in four weeks.

What we are seeing is substantial new case growth, and we are beginning to see new death growth.

The UK doesn't look anything like us.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, I didn't miss it. I just haven't seen any indication that we're going to see excess deaths get to near zero in four weeks.



What we are seeing is substantial new case growth, and we are beginning to see new death growth.



The UK doesn't look anything like us.

That simply may be a function of our political structure. It would be more accurate to compare the UK (or other country) to an individual state like New York etc...

And to be clear, he is not referencing excess deaths overall but on a weekly basis(I think). It will be closer to 6 months or even a year(possibly longer but with the heavy weighting toward the elderly it should be relatively quick) before the excess deaths overall are back in line.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

[Donger]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That simply may be a function of our political structure. It would be more accurate to compare the UK (or other country) to an individual state like New York etc...

And to be clear, he is not referencing excess deaths overall but on a weekly basis(I think). It will be closer to 6 months or even a year(possibly longer but with the heavy weighting toward the elderly it should be relatively quick) before the excess deaths overall are back in line.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

No, it's a function of comparing numbers. Yes, the UK curve looks much like New York's. It looks nothing like the US' (now) curves.

I looked that guy up. I'm not sure that I'd give his predictions much credence, to be blunt:

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...nobel-laureate

March 23, 2020
9:13 PM

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/no...-deaths-621407

Nobel laureate: surprised if Israel has more than 10 coronavirus deaths
Israeli Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt has predicted that no more than ten Israelis will succumb to COVID-19 – and even less with the new restrictions – since the number of cases is so few.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, it's a function of comparing numbers. Yes, the UK curve looks much like New York's. It looks nothing like the US' (now) curves.

I looked that guy up. I'm not sure that I'd give his predictions much credence, to be blunt:

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...nobel-laureate

March 23, 2020
9:13 PM

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/no...-deaths-621407

Nobel laureate: surprised if Israel has more than 10 coronavirus deaths
Israeli Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt has predicted that no more than ten Israelis will succumb to COVID-19 – and even less with the new restrictions – since the number of cases is so few.

He nailed China and Sweden. He said they would get to about 6000. Meanwhile, Imperial College and IHME predicted 90000 to 100000 dead in Sweden by July 1st.

Levitt> Neil "Bird Flu" Ferguson