***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The reality is there were going to be a shit ton of new cases regardless of what we do at this point. The FL & TX vs CA approach proves this. We aren't locking the country down again nor should we for a disease that kills mainly elderly and has low risk to everyone else.

Seems we have once again forgotten the goal of flattening the curve.

Its also worth noting the new case numbers keep popping up from areas that haven't been though it yet.

“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters Tuesday. “That would have less people infected. That would ultimately have less deaths. You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”

[Pasta Little Brioni]

All that's being done is buying time. This thing is going to tear through everyone eventually.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The reality is there were going to be a shit ton of new cases regardless of what we do at this point. The FL & TX vs CA approach proves this. We aren't locking the country down again nor should we for a disease that kills mainly elderly and has low risk to everyone else.

Seems we have once again forgotten the goal of flattening the curve.

Its also worth noting the new case numbers keep popping up from areas that haven't been though it yet.

Had we done what we should have during or after the first lockdown, we'd be better off with cases. But it is what it is at this point. Just gotta hope to keep deaths somewhat low and that hospitals don't overwhelm.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

All that's being done is buying time. This thing is going to tear through everyone eventually.

I 100% don't understand this mentality. Do you deny that IFRs are far lower today than they were 4 months ago? And do you see some reason that that trend won't continue? There's tons of positive news lately both on the vaccine and therapeutic fronts, so it seems pretty obvious that the longer you keep infection rates low, the better things will be.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

Had we done what we should have during or after the first lockdown, we'd be better off with cases. But it is what it is at this point. Just gotta hope to keep deaths somewhat low and that hospitals don't overwhelm.

I wont argue that a 6 week hard lock down out the gate wouldn't have mitigated most of this, but that is 100% hindsight that almost no one thought was necessary back in early March.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by O.city

Had we done what we should have during or after the first lockdown, we'd be better off with cases. But it is what it is at this point. Just gotta hope to keep deaths somewhat low and that hospitals don't overwhelm.

Was never going to happen here.

[KS Smitty]

Anecdotal story of a 20 year old via Facebook:

Since July 1st I have been the sickest I have ever been. For those that do not know, I tested positive for Coronavirus at the beginning of the month. But, I failed to get better. After two ER trips, chest x-rays, and CT scans it was learned I needed more intensive care and I was transferred to KU Med in Kansas City. Imagine being 20 years old and getting told you’re not only part of a pandemic, but you’re going to a hospital two hours from home for who knows how long and you cannot have any visitors, not even parents. I spent three days in ICU, five days in isolation in a covid wing, and now I’m on day 3 of progressive care. It was learned I have developed an incredibly destructive secondary infection in my right lung due to my Covid infection. I’ve spent the last 9 days with a chest tube hanging out between my ribs draining liquid infection. Yes, it hurts. At all times. It was recently discovered that the secondary infection has done enough damage to require surgery to remove most of if not all of my lung, as it is now too infected to survive. Hopefully I will have surgery sometime this week so I can begin the long road to recovery.
Friends, especially those of my age, please use my experience as an example. I am 2 weeks away from turning 21 years old. We are not immune and we are not invincible to this disease because we are young and healthy. I never thought it a million years I would get sick. I went out, I hung out with friends, I never wore a mask. And now I regret it all. We are still at risk. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Stay safe.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I wont argue that a 6 week hard lock down out the gate wouldn't have mitigated most of this, but that is 100% hindsight that almost no one thought was necessary back in early March.

It isn't hindsight when it was being said at the time that this is how to do it.

I think the lockdown we did was fine, we shoulda let cases get lower before we blasted out.

Now we are dealing with it. It is waht it is.

[petegz28]

Kansas Governor is threatening lockdown next week

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It isn't hindsight when it was being said at the time that this is how to do it.

I think the lockdown we did was fine, we shoulda let cases get lower before we blasted out.

Now we are dealing with it. It is waht it is.

Okay so say we let cases get lower. What would make you think they wouldn't rise again when we re-opened?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay so say we let cases get lower. What would make you think they wouldn't rise again when we re-opened?

If they're low enough, you can track and trace them out and attempt to keep it from becoming community spread embedded.

Once that happens it's too late.

If you have them on a downward trend then slowly reopen you would hope you could keep them low.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

If they're low enough, you can track and trace them out and attempt to keep it from becoming community spread embedded.

Once that happens it's too late.

If you have them on a downward trend then slowly reopen you would hope you could keep them low.

I think that's a very myopic view to be honest. It assumes you can lock down harder and stay locked down longer without any ancillary effects or unintended consequences. Just saying.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

If they're low enough, you can track and trace them out and attempt to keep it from becoming community spread embedded.

Once that happens it's too late.

If you have them on a downward trend then slowly reopen you would hope you could keep them low.

Are you saying that a planned, and followed, phased reopening plan works?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I 100% don't understand this mentality. Do you deny that IFRs are far lower today than they were 4 months ago? And do you see some reason that that trend won't continue? There's tons of positive news lately both on the vaccine and therapeutic fronts, so it seems pretty obvious that the longer you keep infection rates low, the better things will be.

I can think of several possible reasons IFR is lower now than 4 months ago:

1. younger population catching it
2. at risk people isolating better
3. nursing homes much better prepared
4. better treatments
5. masks and being careful may keep severity down
6. warmer weather (for now) may keep severity down
7. less super spreader events keeping initial dose and severity down

Those first three are the big one. There's no such thing as an IFR of a representative slice of the entire population anymore, since older and more at-risk people are behaving different. So this idea of a blanket IFR is mostly academic now imo. It's all about the demographics of your current case population.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay so say we let cases get lower. What would make you think they wouldn't rise again when we re-opened?

If you get them low enough, efforts like contact tracing can largely keep it under control. Most of the rest of the developed world has been able to do it that way.

But to your point, the U.S. populace has shown that we're unwilling to subject ourselves to the measures necessary to contract trace effectively, and we're unwilling to voluntarily abide by guidelines.

So I've pretty much given up on anything but a vaccine. We're the pity of the world at this point, and it just is what it is.