***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

Is Hamas banned from the thread or has he just not been around?

I'm guessing he just got tired of having the same arguments over and over again.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

A few observations on Mask wearing.

In my area- Jackson County- I was only seeing maybe 20% of the people wearing mask at stores. Now it is mandetory and for a few weeks now- most everyone had one, even if they were not wearing it properly.

Spent the day up in St. Joe this week. Did not see more than a handful wearing mask.

Got new tires today- and only 1 person, plus myself had a mask on out of 20 folks in and out.

It varies place to place. Here, you go into a store and it seems like 90%+ are wearing masks. Went to church Sunday and of the 250 people allowed to be in the room, I couldn't find a single person not wearing one. Even some of the drug zombies downtown are wearing them.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

herd immunity, mostly based on faulty assumptions that are now being shown as such.

I would love to see where factually herd immunity has been proven to be attainable. Please share that peer reviewed empirical data .

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yep. Between CA, FL and TX they have over 600 of those. We are just under 200 more deaths this Wednesday compared to last Wednesday so while we are rising we aren't spiking.

As cases have been rolling off in those states for a couple of weeks now we have to hope the deaths start doing the same soon.

This about the time I said we would find out about deaths and we are seeing a rise. And yes I hope it doesn't go higher this is all tragic and I feel for those families that have lost a loved one.

The bad news is Florida is suspending their testing for a week because of the hurricane so we won't have any idea about cases for awhile. Just horrible timing for a state that is already in a shit storm.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

I would love to see where factually herd immunity has been proven to be attainable. Please share that peer reviewed empirical data .

In history? Are you insane? This is not some kookie new concept. The entire point of a vaccine is to achieve herd immunity.

The idea that herd immunity is NOT attainable for COVID is a bit whacky. We have zero evidence to back up such an assertion and a ton of evidence to the contrary.

We have a study from Singapore that shows that people exposed to SARS 17 years ago have retained cross immunity for the coronavirus. The whole "antibodies fade quickly" thing has been shown to be misleading at best. (o.city has posted MANY MANY times on this topic)

There is no study on herd immunity and this virus because it is still too new. We may be seeing the effects of herd immunity in Sweden right now but it's just too soon to say for certain.,

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well good news bad news I guess...

Good news: Cases are down 5k compared to last Wednesday

Bad News: Deaths were just short of 1.5k for the first time in almost 2 months

Hopefully we don't see much more of a rise in deaths

Texas changed their reporting and you are seeing the result of that with their numbers. Worldometers shows 300+ for Texas but the real figure is over 200 less.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Texas changed their reporting and you are seeing the result of that with their numbers. Worldometers shows 300+ for Texas but the real figure is over 200 less.

Could you explain this please? What'd they change?

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Could you explain this please? What'd they change?

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news/rele.../20200727.aspx

The Texas Department of State Health Services is improving the reporting of fatalities due to COVID-19 by identifying them through the cause of death listed on death certificates. This method allows fatalities to be counted faster with more comprehensive demographic data. Using death certificates also ensures consistent reporting across the state and enables DSHS to display fatalities by date of death, providing the public with more information about when deaths occurred. The change will be reflected in today’s data when posted online.

A fatality is counted as due to COVID-19 when the medical certifier, usually a doctor with direct knowledge of the patient, determines COVID-19 directly caused the death. This method does not include deaths of people who had COVID-19 but died of an unrelated cause. Death certificates are required by law to be filed within 10 days.

DSHS previously counted COVID-19 fatalities as they were reported publicly by local and regional health departments after they received a notification and verified the death. The length of time that process takes varies by jurisdiction and does not provide timely demographic information on most fatalities.

As of Monday, death certificate data has identified 5,713 fatalities among Texas residents, including 44 newly reported today. That compares with 5,038 deaths reported Sunday under the previous method. DSHS will continue to post the number of additional fatalities reported each day. Fatalities are reported based on where the person lived.

If you want the accurate data for Texas go to...

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83

At the rate Texas is currently going (if it holds), the positive test rate should drop to below 5% within a month. I'm sure people will claim that is due to shutting down and bars and mask wearing but since restaurants are open and mask wearing is spotty at best here... I would think there is more to it than just that.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Texas changed their reporting and you are seeing the result of that with their numbers. Worldometers shows 300+ for Texas but the real figure is over 200 less.

That's good but what is the change and why?

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

In history? Are you insane? This is not some kookie new concept. The entire point of a vaccine is to achieve herd immunity.



The idea that herd immunity is NOT attainable for COVID is a bit whacky. We have zero evidence to back up such an assertion and a ton of evidence to the contrary.



We have a study from Singapore that shows that people exposed to SARS 17 years ago have retained cross immunity for the coronavirus. The whole "antibodies fade quickly" thing has been shown to be misleading at best. (o.city has posted MANY MANY times on this topic)



There is no study on herd immunity and this virus because it is still too new. We may be seeing the effects of herd immunity in Sweden right now but it's just too soon to say for certain.,

You know I was referencing Covid 19 only and herd immunity without a vaccine. If we have a vaccine we don't need to have herd immunity via exposure. But I believe you know that is what I was talking about as are the "others"

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

You know I was referencing Covid 19 only and herd immunity without a vaccine. If we have a vaccine we don't need to have herd immunity via exposure. But I believe you know that is what I was talking about as are the "others"

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk

What I don't understand is why you would think herd immunity can't be achieved without a vaccine?

If you say it can;t be achieved without x number of lives lost, that is a reasonable assertion... but just saying herd immunity is unattainable without a vaccine is a bit odd given what we currently know.

[suzzer99]

This article has an interesting take on what "herd immunity" actually means with covid.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

But she declines to endorse any particular numeric threshold for herd immunity. She’s not comfortable with the idea of a single number at all. What’s important to her, rather, is that people are not misled by the idea of herd immunity. In the context of vaccination, herd-immunity thresholds are relatively fixed and predictable. In the context of an ongoing pandemic, thinking of this threshold as some static concept can be dangerously misleading.

“COVID-19 is the first disease in modern times where the whole world has changed their behavior and disease spread has been reduced,” Britton noted. That made old models and numbers obsolete. Social distancing and other reactive measures changed the R0 value, and they will continue to do so. The virus has certain immutable properties, but there is nothing immutable about how many infections it causes in the real world.

What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.

Basically while covid innate herd immunity may be something like 60-70%, effective herd immunity could be as low as 20% - assuming all the office drones like me keeping working from home and being careful.

However it seems to be the case that as soon as cases let up, people let their guard down, and the virus plows into a new fresh field of uninfected people. Schools re-opening could be that field.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm guessing he just got tired of having the same arguments over and over again.

I couldn't figure out when he last logged in. If I remember correctly, he had some health issues going on, lymphoma perhaps? I hope he is ok.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Wow, you're an idiot. You want me to admit I was "wrong" on ideological issues that you disagree with... do you understand how any of this works?

Donger and others have taken a dogmatic stance against herd immunity, mostly based on faulty assumptions that are now being shown as such. I simply think more lives would have been saved and with a higher quality of life had we taken a vastly different approach. It will be a year or two before we have anything resembling "proof" on who was right.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

I guess you missed the memo, Donger only deals in "facts". Sure they are only his interpretation of "facts" but that doesn't stop him making the claim repeatedly.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

This article has an interesting take on what "herd immunity" actually means with covid.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/





Basically while covid innate herd immunity may be something like 60-70%, effective herd immunity could be as low as 20% - assuming all the office drones like me keeping working from home and being careful.

However it seems to be the case that as soon as cases let up, people let their guard down, and the virus plows into a new fresh field of uninfected people. Schools re-opening could be that field.

If there is that much innate immunity, even with opening everything up, the models would have to correct for it and things would be alot different. It's all about chains in transmission and with that much stoppage points, it's not like a brush fire.

At this point, we just don't know for sure.

They also kinda missed on the modeling where people are ping pong balls bouncing all around. For the most part, we have our select groups and areas we go.