***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SupDock]

https://rebelem.com/covid-19-the-nov...onavirus-2019/

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by RN47

I enjoy listening to Dr. Z podcasts; here he interviews an epidemiologist regarding the novel corona-virus. Worth a listen, IMO.

BLUF: No vaccines for about a year for this one; it's going to do what it will. Particle masks / N95 masks are merely a gesture for those not infected. If you already have it, it will help prevent you spreading to others...

Z Dogg is the man

Case update:

As of 7 PM March 1, GMT +8 there are 89,768 (+2,788 today vs +1,799 yesterday) confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Donger

That isn't how it's calculated. It's called case fatality rate, if memory serves, and it's deaths divided by total cases. And, yes, it varies. If using just known outcomes, you could also say that ~50% of those who contract the virus (90,000 and 45,000) recover. We better hope that the recovery rate (when known) ends up being better than ~50%, because that will mean ~50% deaths.

It’s sort of pointless to worry about death rates at this point since the impact it has ranges from nothing to death and chances are a lot of people fall (or will fall) into the category of positive but not sick enough to ever get diagnosed. Which is one of the reasons that it will be hard to contain. But also one of the reasons trying to identify a mortality rate is a bit of a waste of time at this point. Not diminishing anything here — just saying it is impossible to know if it is .02%, 2.0%, or 20% at this point.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Donger

That isn't how it's calculated. It's called case fatality rate, if memory serves, and it's deaths divided by total cases. And, yes, it varies. If using just known outcomes, you could also say that ~50% of those who contract the virus (90,000 and 45,000) recover. We better hope that the recovery rate (when known) ends up being better than ~50%, because that will mean ~50% deaths.

No, you couldn’t. If a person hasn’t either recovered or died then they don’t yet have an “outcome”.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Schnitzel

It’s silly to compare number of recoveries to number of deaths in the Western World at the moment, because the real outbreak in Europe happened during last week and it takes at least two weeks to officially recover.

Yeah, that's a good theory. If true, then it might also mean that if it's going to kill you, it does it pretty quickly. That would explain the high death rates now in Italy and South Korea.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by wazu

No, you couldn’t. If a person hasn’t either recovered or died then they don’t yet have an “outcome”.

Sure you could. Recovered is a known outcome. So, we know that there have been 90,000 cases and 45,000 recoveries. So, recovery is ~50%. That is accurate, but that doesn't mean that it will stay at "only" 50% recovery (let's hope not).

[Donger]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

It’s sort of pointless to worry about death rates at this point since the impact it has ranges from nothing to death and chances are a lot of people fall (or will fall) into the category of positive but not sick enough to ever get diagnosed. Which is one of the reasons that it will be hard to contain. But also one of the reasons trying to identify a mortality rate is a bit of a waste of time at this point. Not diminishing anything here — just saying it is impossible to know if it is .02%, 2.0%, or 20% at this point.

No, we do know, based on the figures we have. It's 3.4% overall. Will that change? Almost certainly.

[SuperBowl4]

I just came back from a paint store. All disposable masks were GONE/SOLD OUT!

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Strongside

If anything like this were to ever get too far out of hand I'll just load up the family and head to the hunting cabin. Hybrid gas/wind/solar generator, guns and ammo for days, completely in the middle of nowhere, and enough game meat in the freezer to last a year.

That said, I'm sure we're going to look back on this and laugh when it's the first episode of VH1's "I Love the 20's."

Do you have enough gas to get there? Also if the roads are blocked you're screwed.

[suzzer99]

Iran could be our look at what happens when a country doesn't take drastic steps to keep people off the streets/contain this thing. 34 deaths so far including people high up in govt. 2 people in AUS and one in NYC who recently returned from Iran have tested positive.

It seems very likely there are more deaths that aren't diagnosed. Infected rate is almost meaningless imo in a country that isn't aggressively testing everyone with symptoms.

We could soon have another data point outside Wuhan as to what it looks like when this goes supernova in a population.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, we do know, based on the figures we have. It's 3.4% overall. Will that change? Almost certainly.

What we know now is that it's a minimum of 3.4%. If everyone with an open case survives, it's 3.4%. If everyone with an open case dies, it's 49.1%. Based on what we see with closed cases, the best bet is 6.3%. But as noted earlier, it'll likely vary due to some issues like timing of the virus arrival in different areas and whether those Chinese precincts are accurately reporting deaths.

[Mennonite]

Who knew the Apocalypse would involve so much math?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Do you have enough gas to get there? Also if the roads are blocked you're screwed.

This is what I was thinking.

If there's any looting or riots in KCMO I'm outta here first sign.

I wonder if I could boat my way down the river from Harrisonville to Stockton, too.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Mennonite

Who knew the Apocalypse would involve so much math?

The Four Horsemen are Add, Subtract, Multiply, and Divide.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Mennonite

Who knew the Apocalypse would involve so much math?

Why do you think they teach math?