***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Third Eye]

Originally Posted by TLO

A lot of this person's takes/information have been on point. Some not so much, nobody is batting .1000 right now.

If nobody is getting even 10% right, we are in real trouble.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Donger

The NYT acknowledges the 52,000 excess deaths, so why did this person say what they said about the NYT?

Because people like to say things?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Third Eye

If nobody is getting even 10% right, we are in real trouble.

Heh. Ooops.

[Donger]

It's even in the NYT article:

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. It is likely that most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself, given the dangerousness of the virus and the well-documented problems with testing. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's even in the NYT article:

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. It is likely that most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself, given the dangerousness of the virus and the well-documented problems with testing. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

So you're denying that what ethical skeptic is saying is rational?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

So you're denying that what ethical skeptic is saying is rational?

I'm denying what this person is claiming:

NYT is denying that lockdown deaths have occurred.

As you can see, the NYT is not denying that lockdown deaths have occurred at all.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by TLO

A lot of this person's takes/information have been on point. Some not so much, nobody is batting .1000 right now.

Conspiracy theorists gonna conspiracy theory, agenda driven tweeter gonna post their agenda.

You do realize how most of those kind of people work don't you? Throw in enough facts/truth here and there to keep you on the line.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Covid-19 is a terrible disease, and the primary goal should be to minimise deaths. How is this done? The key is age. The risk of Covid-19 mortality varies more than a thousandfold between the oldest and youngest members of society.

The pandemic will not be over until we reach herd immunity, either through a vaccine or through natural infections. Herd immunity is not a strategy but a proven scientific phenomenon, and to deny that is as silly as denying gravity. With the right strategy, we can even use it to save lives.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ainst-covid-19

It is inappropriate to either exaggerate or dismiss the seriousness of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is still impossible to know what percentage is needed to reach herd immunity or how many people will eventually die, and no respectable epidemiologist will make such claims. Nor do we know how long it will take to get a vaccine, which could be anything from six months to never. The one important thing that we do know is the enormous risk difference by age. Covid-19 is a formidable enemy, and in any war, one must take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses. That weakness is the near inability of the virus to kill younger people. Hence, it is the young adults among us that must stand in the front line as we fight this enemy. If not, we will have many more casualties than necessary.

Martin Kulldorff is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. He studies infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety.

This should have been the strategy all along. I'd be willing to bet that MANY more lives would have been saved had we focused our attention on the vulnerable instead of spreading mass hysteria early on.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

This should have been the strategy all along. I'd be willing to bet that MANY more lives would have been saved had we focused our attention on the vulnerable instead of spreading mass hysteria early on.

Easier said than done , the elderly and sick need people to take care of them, if you reduce the amount of infections in those care takers you reduce the risk of the weak getting it and you try and do that by social distancing and masks but this stuff only works if people buy in when it comes to exponential growth it only takes a few people of to not buy in To make a mess of any plan.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Easier said than done , the elderly and sick need people to take care of them, if you reduce the amount of infections in those care takers you reduce the risk of the weak getting it and you try and do that by social distancing and masks but this stuff only works if people buy in when it comes to exponential growth it only takes a few people of to buy I. To mess things up.

Yes but you only reduce the number of infections at any given MOMENT not overall unless you mitigate successfully all the way until there is a vaccine. My posit has always been that it is far easier to get people to buy in and protect the vulnerable over a shorter time period then it is if we drag it out for a year.

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Europe's Top Health Officials Say Masks Aren't Helpful in Beating COVID-19


https://fee.org/articles/europes-top...ting-covid-19/

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Yes but you only reduce the number of infections at any given MOMENT not overall unless you mitigate successfully all the way until there is a vaccine. My posit has always been that it is far easier to get people to buy in and protect the vulnerable over a shorter time period then it is if we drag it out for a year.

How do you do it , people keep saying protect the vulnerable but I haven’t heard a viable solution that people would also be willing to pay for or make the sacrifices to put into effect.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's even in the NYT article:

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. It is likely that most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself, given the dangerousness of the virus and the well-documented problems with testing. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

“We’re not saying it’s COVID but it’s obviously COVID.”

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Monticore

How do you do it , people keep saying protect the vulnerable but I haven’t heard a viable solution that people would also be willing to pay for or make the sacrifices to put into effect.

You could start by not throwing them into nursing homes filled with infected people.

[TLO]

The Don holding a press conference starting in about 5 minutes. Expected to sign several executive orders today.