***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Probing the robustness of the claimed effect of complete lockdown: a modeling artifact?https://t.co/MufHOxUTE3

From Vincent Chin, John Ioannidis, Martin Tanner, Sally Cripps

— METRICStanford (@METRICStanford) August 11, 2020

Not totally sure how I feel about this, need to digest and read again before I comment.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Most of those studies are using the ****ing cruise ship as their model and come out with a 25% MOE. Excuse me for not taking those models seriously.

I'm talking about the studies they did on whole towns in Germany and Italy.

Also we know IFR is generally from .5%-1% at least in the early days when people weren't socially distancing. You can use that to calculate the actual spread.

It always seems to come in around 10x actual cases vs. confirmed. Now it could be 5x sure. But it's not 1x.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by O.city

There's some interesting data about the 20-30 percent going around. I think or atleast hope it's correct. We'd be closer to the end of this than we think.

It doesn't mean we can open wide back to normal, but it would allow us to ideally get pretty close to it.

Kids going back to school is going to open up a whole bunch of new households who were otherwise socially distancing and not in the 20-30%.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

There's some interesting data about the 20-30 percent going around. I think or atleast hope it's correct. We'd be closer to the end of this than we think.

It doesn't mean we can open wide back to normal, but it would allow us to ideally get pretty close to it.

If HI begins at 20 to 30%, and we are close to that, when would you expect cases to begin really dropping, and at what rate?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

If HI begins at 20 to 30%, and we are close to that, when would you expect cases to begin really dropping, and at what rate?

Honestly, I don't know.

I would think it would be similar to what we saw in NYC and are seeing in Houston and Miami at this point, or atleast are beginning to see.

I hate to bring it up again, but Sweden might be an example of how we'd see it drop once it hits that rate as thats about where they're seroprevalance puts them at.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

If HI begins at 20 to 30%, and we are close to that, when would you expect cases to begin really dropping, and at what rate?

It's tough because some areas are probably close to it while others aren't, so making a blanket statement about where "we" are isn't really all that informative.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Honestly, I don't know.

I would think it would be similar to what we saw in NYC and are seeing in Houston and Miami at this point, or atleast are beginning to see.

I hate to bring it up again, but Sweden might be an example of how we'd see it drop once it hits that rate as thats about where they're seroprevalance puts them at.

At this point, I think Belarus is a better example. They did jack shit. Sweden did (and is doing) a lot, even if it wasn't as extreme as what everyone else did.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Kids going back to school is going to open up a whole bunch of new households who were otherwise socially distancing and not in the 20-30%.

I just don't think so, if thats all we relax. We've not seen that else where really yet

[O.city]

Don't be put off by the giant nose - it's a great piece. A way back to normalcy in weeks, not years?

Thank you @alexismadrigal and @yayitsrob for this and everything.https://t.co/i77lZgiJpL

— Peter Walker (@PeterJ_Walker) August 14, 2020

Long read but good one.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's tough because some areas are probably close to it while others aren't, so making a blanket statement about where "we" are isn't really all that informative.

Yeah, it's just such a large ass diverse area we're looking at.

There is a great breakdown statistically of Louisiana. They were thought to have a 2nd peak, but when broken down, it wasn't a "2nd" one as much as it's just areas not been hit getting their first.

No where has really had a 2nd wave yet so that gives me hope that immunity is playing some part.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

At this point, I think Belarus is a better example. They did jack shit. Sweden did (and is doing) a lot, even if it wasn't as extreme as what everyone else did.

I hadn't looked at them until now. I haven't seen a curve like that any where else.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

I hadn't looked at them until now. I haven't seen a curve like that any where else.

Yeah, I hadn't paid much attention either until I ran across this site:

https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid

If you scroll back and forth on the map, you'll see the Belarus is the only country in the world that stays yellow the whole time. I'm kind of surprised they haven't been more of a focus, though I don't know if there are data quality issues there or something that make it a non-ideal case study.

EDIT: And Nicaragua as well it seems. Haven't dug into them much, but they stay yellow as well.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, I hadn't paid much attention either until I ran across this site:

https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid

If you scroll back and forth on the map, you'll see the Belarus is the only country in the world that stays yellow the whole time. I'm kind of surprised they haven't been more of a focus, though I don't know if there are data quality issues there or something that make it a non-ideal case study.

EDIT: And Nicaragua as well it seems. Haven't dug into them much, but they stay yellow as well.

I don't know how much I'd trust any info coming out of Belarus.

[Donger]

Any attempt to get coronavirus herd immunity would lead to massive death tolls, Fauci warns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/healt...day/index.html

[O.city]

Yeah, that CNN article is kinda blah.

If it takes 70-90 percent to get there, we're a ways off but we'd be seeing things in Belarus or Sweden, or Italy or anywhere thats opened up a little even after a spike go off the rails.