***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

Any attempt to get coronavirus herd immunity would lead to massive death tolls, Fauci warns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/healt...day/index.html

Though I value his expert opinion, I've grown a bit frustrated at statements like this. Yes, we all agree that if 80-90% of people "got COVID" it would be a hugely shitty situation.

The questions are 1) what percentage of people have already gotten it but never known it and 2) what percentage are already immune due to cross immunity.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Though I value his expert opinion, I've grown a bit frustrated at statements like this. Yes, we all agree that if 80-90% of people "got COVID" it would be a hugely shitty situation.

The questions are 1) what percentage of people have already gotten it but never known it and 2) what percentage are already immune due to cross immunity.

Just because we've seen how shit can get sideways, after digging in on the stuff about it, I'd like to correct #2 or specify.

Based on cross reactivity, it's not technically immunity in the sense that you won't contract the virus, moreso in that if you get it, it'll be more likely mild or asymptomatic.

It's somewhat semantical, but with this stuff you kind of have to be precise.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Though I value his expert opinion, I've grown a bit frustrated at statements like this. Yes, we all agree that if 80-90% of people "got COVID" it would be a hugely shitty situation.

The questions are 1) what percentage of people have already gotten it but never known it and 2) what percentage are already immune due to cross immunity.

I asked this earlier, but upon what data is the HI percentage taken? I would imagine recovered and still alive.

If so, that's 2,844,000. That's .86% of the population.

Multiply by 10 per the CDC? 8.6%

Natural immunity? Who knows?

[O.city]

The fact that areas that have had a spike early have reopened in whatever fashion they have and not had problems has to have something to do with a certain amount of immunity.

I think it also means that while we may be at a certain level to keep it down, people are being cautious and distancing etc. We aren't yet at a level of wide open is available.

So its a bit skewed.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

I asked this earlier, but upon what data is the HI percentage taken? I would imagine recovered and still alive.

If so, that's 2,844,000. That's .86% of the population.

Multiply by 10 per the CDC? 8.6%

Natural immunity? Who knows?

I'm drawing back a decade so I may be off here, but HI includes deaths as those are no longer potential vectors of infection.

Again, could be way off, but IIRC, it's all about a potential stop in infection.

But without it, you'd have to look at serology numbers and apparently even those are an undercount

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm drawing back a decade so I may be off here, but HI includes deaths as those are no longer potential vectors of infection.

Again, could be way off, but IIRC, it's all about a potential stop in infection.

But without it, you'd have to look at serology numbers and apparently even those are an undercount

Yes, I suppose that the dead can't get infected. But nor do they interact with people who are still alive.

Unless zombies.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm drawing back a decade so I may be off here, but HI includes deaths as those are no longer potential vectors of infection.

Again, could be way off, but IIRC, it's all about a potential stop in infection.

But without it, you'd have to look at serology numbers and apparently even those are an undercount

Have you seen anything recently about how long IgG antibodies are detectable in the blood?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by O.city

I just don't think so, if thats all we relax. We've not seen that else where really yet

Because kids have gone back to school yet in most places. You can be as vigilant as you want. But if your teenager brings it back to the house you're probably going to get it.

[O.city]

https://assets.researchsquare.com/fi...v1_stamped.pdf

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S...674(20)31008-4

This is good news, we can put to rest the "we're not immune, vaccines won't work etc" stuff.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Because kids have gone back to school yet.

They have all over Europe and some never didn't go to school in those places, so the whole "we have more spread now" doesn't hold up IMO.

We will see though.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://assets.researchsquare.com/fi...v1_stamped.pdf

This is good news, we can put to rest the "we're not immune, vaccines won't work etc" stuff.

Things aren't going back to normal bro

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by stumppy

I don't know how much I'd trust any info coming out of Belarus.

Same for Nicaragua. I'm on some Nicaraguan expat forums. It's a complete cluster****. No one has any idea what's happening.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by O.city

They have all over Europe and some never didn't go to school in those places, so the whole "we have more spread now" doesn't hold up IMO.

We will see though.

Europe has like 20x less cases than us per capita. I'd feel a lot better about back to school here if we had that low of an outbreak.

The point is if we're saying 20-30% will get us to herd immunity, that's only because 70-80% are basically completely isolating, only going to the grocery store with masks, or outside activities. Like me basically. But if I had a teenager that was sent back to school - I'd be back in the more vulnerable to get it pool.

That HS in GA had to shut down after 2 days. The list of quarantined kids in Cherokee County is already a mile long.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Things aren't going back to normal bro

We shall see.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Europe has like 20x less cases than us per capita. I'd feel a lot better about back to school here if we had that low of an outbreak.

The point is if we're saying 20-30% will get us to herd immunity, that's only because 70-80% are basically completely isolating, only going to the grocery store with masks, or outside activities. Like me basically. But if I had a teenager that was sent back to school - I'd be back in the more vulnerable to get it pool.

That HS in GA had to shut down after 2 days. The list of quarantined kids in Cherokee County is already a mile long.

They do now, they didn't when they went back to school.

If they've gone back and cases have continually dropped, doesn't that say something ?

If that amount gets us to HI, that says nothing about the other whatever percent. You think 80% of the population is isolating?