***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Discuss Thrower]

Maybe if young people thought about the great patriotic selfless sacrifices they're making then 11% of them wouldn't consider suicide.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

70-80% are basically completely isolating, only going to the grocery store with masks, or outside activities

Say what now?

[suzzer99]

That's the whole theory behind 20-30% being effective herd immunity. That some segment of society has effectively removed themselves from the herd for now by isolating a lot more, and being careful when they are out.

Well also there's some buffer. So maybe it's like 60% work from home office drones like me - taking lots of precautions, who are very unlikely to get it unless they get complacent. Also retired/at-risk people who are being careful. Nursing homes have much better protocols now. Etc.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

This article makes a lot of the points. This is the first pandemic with massive social distancing. It's a whole new ballgame.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

That's the whole theory behind 20-30% being effective herd immunity. That some segment of society has effectively removed themselves from the herd for now by isolating a lot more, and being careful when they are out.

Well also there's some buffer. So maybe it's like 60% work from home office drones like me - taking lots of precautions, who are very unlikely to get it unless they get complacent. Also retired/at-risk people who are being careful. Nursing homes have much better protocols now. Etc.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

This article makes a lot of the points. This is the first pandemic with massive social distancing. It's a whole new ballgame.

For once, I hope Fauci is wrong:

Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that, because of a “general anti-science, anti-authority, anti-vaccine feeling,” the U.S. is “unlikely” to achieve herd immunity even after a vaccine is available.

[suzzer99]

There's a lot of confusion on this. It all comes down to how you define "herd immunity".

1) Traditional herd immunity: enough people get it that the virus dies on its own w/o any special measures - 60-70% for covid, maybe more with overshoot. This value is endemic to the virus and the local population behavior and density. It assumes normal behavior.

2) Whatever you call what we're doing now ("effective herd immunity"?) where roughly 60% stay mostly isolated out of the "herd": cases drop, maybe we wait it out until a vaccine. This number is very malleable based on behavior.

The problem with 2 obviously is the virus never really goes away, people get complacent, then we get this slow burn back to traditional herd immunity.

So I don't think you ever get to virus over w/o a vaccine or traditional herd immunity. But it does explain this phenomenon where cases seem to start dropping once you hit 20-30% of the population infected. There just aren't that many more people in the pool who could potentially get it.

Hence my concern about schools opening up a new segment (parents, teachers, teenagers) to the pool that currently is mostly out of the pool (not all parents, but a good chunk of them). I know plenty of parents who are taking the virus very seriously and really don't want to send their kids back to in-person classes, but they're still having a really tough decision about what to do right now in places where schools are giving the either/or option.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

“COVID-19 is the first disease in modern times where the whole world has changed their behavior and disease spread has been reduced,” Britton noted. That made old models and numbers obsolete. Social distancing and other reactive measures changed the R0 value, and they will continue to do so. The virus has certain immutable properties, but there is nothing immutable about how many infections it causes in the real world.

What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Mo positive rate back down to 10 % for the last week so we're getting better

This is another one of those stats that you get a different number for depending on the source. The MO DHSS website says we're approaching 12%

[O.city]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

There's a lot of confusion on this. It all comes down to how you define "herd immunity".

1) Traditional herd immunity: enough people get it that the virus dies on its own w/o any special measures - 60-70% for covid, maybe more with overshoot. This value is endemic to the virus and the local population behavior and density. It assumes normal behavior.

2) Whatever you call what we're doing now ("effective herd immunity"?) where roughly 60% stay mostly isolated out of the "herd": cases drop, maybe we wait it out until a vaccine. This number is very malleable based on behavior.

The problem with 2 obviously is the virus never really goes away, people get complacent, then we get this slow burn back to traditional herd immunity.

So I don't think you ever get to virus over w/o a vaccine or traditional herd immunity. But it does explain this phenomenon where cases seem to start dropping once you hit 20-30% of the population infected. There just aren't that many more people in the pool who could potentially get it.

Hence my concern about schools opening up a new segment (parents, teachers, teenagers) to the pool that currently is mostly out of the pool (not all parents, but a good chunk of them). I know plenty of parents who are taking the virus very seriously and really don't want to send their kids back to in-person classes, but they're still having a really tough decision about what to do right now in places where schools are giving the either/or option.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

For sure

But I also think your 60% that are locked down is pretty optimistic atleast in our area it is. Kids and parents school aged haven’t been all locked down for sure. They’ve had summer baseball and other gatherings and here we are.

Again, Sweden never closed schools of those under 16 and are where they are. So we will see but based on everything that’s come out study wise I don’t think schools will be the mass casualty everything thinks

[O.city]

You’d have to look into mobility data and such to see movements but based on the Little I’ve seen once things open, people move around

A lot

[Megatron96]

Sweden reported cases dropping back towards zero:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...n?country=~SWE

Interesting note: Sweden had almost exactly ONE month of what you could call a 'spike' in cases, then immediately dropped back to their previous reported case rate (under 1,000/day) and since JUL 8 they've averaged less than 500/day.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

You’d have to look into mobility data and such to see movements but based on the Little I’ve seen once things open, people move around

A lot

Google makes it kind of a pain to look back more than a month or so, but I was able to dig up the link to their mobility report from the end of March. At that point, they had the U.S. at -47% for retail, -22% for grocery, -51% for transit, and -38% for workplaces. By comparison, the most recent one was -15% retail, -4% grocery, -22% for transit, and -16% for workplaces. So very generally speaking, we're "social distancing" about half as much these days as we were during the full lockdown (though retail and grocery are less than half).

I wish they had restaurants in there. That's a big one that seems like it would be important to monitor.

[Donger]

Georgia school district reports 108 Covid-19 cases

The Cherokee County School District reported 80 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 1,106 students and staff quarantined as a result of those cases, for the week.

That number is almost triple the number of students and staff that were confirmed Covid-19 positive the prior week and double the number in quarantine.

In the first two weeks of school, the district has reported a total of 108 confirmed cases of Covid-19 among students and staff. Last week, 28 positive cases of Covid-19 were reported and 563 were in quarantine.

On Wednesday, Woodstock High School announced it would temporarily close in-person learning after identifying 14 positive cases.

In-person classes are tentatively set to resume there on Aug. 31. In-person classes are also set to resume on Aug. 31 at Etowah High School, which also had to temporarily stop in-person learning on Tuesday.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Google makes it kind of a pain to look back more than a month or so, but I was able to dig up the link to their mobility report from the end of March. At that point, they had the U.S. at -47% for retail, -22% for grocery, -51% for transit, and -38% for workplaces. By comparison, the most recent one was -15% retail, -4% grocery, -22% for transit, and -16% for workplaces. So very generally speaking, we're "social distancing" about half as much these days as we were during the full lockdown (though retail and grocery are less than half).

I wish they had restaurants in there. That's a big one that seems like it would be important to monitor.

Just people in general knowing what’s going on they’re gonna be cautious ish.

Which with all we’ve seen happen now I think we pretty much know is enough to control this without the need for lockdowns

[O.city]

You also don’t necessarily need HI to slow this thing down. The closer you get to it the slower it will go

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

You also don’t necessarily need HI to slow this thing down. The closer you get to it the slower it will go

Where did you see that number that showed Missouri was approaching the 10% mark?

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/drjarlov/status/...813125634?s=21