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Old 11-21-2021, 07:21 PM  
MMXcalibur MMXcalibur is offline
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How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
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Old 12-08-2021, 12:49 PM   #421
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Bills beat NE next go around assuming NE has to pass in that game.

Chiefs win out its theirs, that's not so simple though. If they get past the Chargers then I have pretty great faith we beat Cinc, Pitt at home, Denver

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Old 12-08-2021, 12:52 PM   #422
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The Patriots will lose 2 to 3 more times. Jfc people...
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Old 12-08-2021, 12:54 PM   #423
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That's the difference between Indy and some other run-first teams. I think Wentz CAN beat them.

The problem is his pass-catchers. Hilton's a corpse at this point and Pittman's banged up. They just don't have many weapons for him. Doyle and Pascal just don't bring much to the table. Parris Campbell is hurt and I'm not convinced he's worth a shit anyway.
Wentz CAN beat them. He CAN also lose to the Jags.

He's just not that good on a game-to-game basis.
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Old 12-08-2021, 01:03 PM   #424
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Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brother View Post
The Patriots will lose 2 to 3 more times. Jfc people...
we have to finish with a better record, as we won't have a better conference record.
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Old 12-08-2021, 02:10 PM   #425
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Whatever. You are not beating pats defense this year unless you have a stud QB that can. Tua is not and will get exposed.
The Dolphins literally beat them week 1 of this season.. with Tua.
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Old 12-08-2021, 02:10 PM   #426
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Patriots will not lose again. D and run game are just too dominant right now with the weather turning.
Yea, the weather conditions at Lucas Oil stadium are well known for being brutal...
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Old 12-08-2021, 02:15 PM   #427
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Who do you have them losing to?
Bills should lose to the Bucs, and I can see them losing to the Patriots again.

I have the Ravens losing 4 of their last 5. Their schedule is brutal.
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Old 12-08-2021, 03:51 PM   #428
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Originally Posted by ThaVirus View Post
The Dolphins literally beat them week 1 of this season.. with Tua.
That's gonna leave a mark...
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Old 12-08-2021, 05:24 PM   #429
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The Dolphins literally beat them week 1 of this season.. with Tua.
Tua was outplayed by Mac Jones in week 1 despite Patriots losing 17-16. What cost the Patriots that game was 4 fumbles of which they lost 2.

Both teams have improved since then but Tua was contained in that game and Patriots defense has gotten better. Not saying Dolphins can't win but even though Tua has played well this year, I don't expect him to do that great against this Patriots defense if the game is meaningful to New England.
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Old 12-08-2021, 05:56 PM   #430
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Originally Posted by arrwheader View Post
Bills beat NE next go around assuming NE has to pass in that game.

Chiefs win out its theirs, that's not so simple though. If they get past the Chargers then I have pretty great faith we beat Cinc, Pitt at home, Denver

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Even the Chiefs winning out only makes it a coin flip at this point. We'll need the Pats, Titans, and Ravens to all drop one (and the Pats only have four to play).
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Old 12-08-2021, 05:59 PM   #431
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There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.
I'm late to the party, but I think you're ignoring that getting the bye (which the Pats are likely to do) roughly doubles your chances of winning the Super Bowl. That's why all the models have them so far ahead.
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Old 12-08-2021, 06:02 PM   #432
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Even the Chiefs winning out only makes it a coin flip at this point. We'll need the Pats to drop two (and they only have four to play) and the Titans to drop one.
?

If we win out NE only has to lose one.
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Old 12-08-2021, 06:07 PM   #433
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Covid makes these prediction models less reliable than they typically are. It could get very chaotic once these games with huge playoff implications are impacted by positive cases.
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Old 12-08-2021, 06:08 PM   #434
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?



If we win out NE only has to lose one.
Yeah, you're correct. Clicked the wrong button.
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Old 12-08-2021, 06:10 PM   #435
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Obviously I prefer the Chargers miss them of the three, but man I'd love to hear the media's excuses for Lamar and Ravens
It’s gonna be injuries, and rightfully so. They’re decimated, and have had enormous amounts of luck to get to their current record. If their team had only half the injuries they currently do, they may still be clinging to the one seed.
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