***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by petegz28

There is no concern over icu beds for covid at the moment. Trust me.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yup

[sedated]

Originally Posted by O.city

Just FYI, the Moderna vaccine has been under development since 2003 and the original Sars outbreak. So there you go, 17 years.

Huh? They couldn't get it finalized for 17 years but when a new disease comes around they manage to get it ready for distribution in a matter of months?

[Pants]

Originally Posted by sedated

Huh? They couldn't get it finalized for 17 years but when a new disease comes around they manage to get it ready for distribution in a matter of months?

They probably shelved it due to the fact that both MERS and SARS were curbed before they could spread due to their relatively slow spread.

[TLO]

Interesting read on IFR

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5352

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Interesting read on IFR

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5352

On another note the Worldometer numbers were better this week

[R Clark]

Tin foil hat time , they had a vaccine ready or close when this hit

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by sedated

Huh? They couldn't get it finalized for 17 years but when a new disease comes around they manage to get it ready for distribution in a matter of months?

How do you test for safety/efficacy when there is no pandemic or subjects to RCT? Ethically you don’t.

[petegz28]

This is a neat trick....

Shelby County woman who passed away 6 months ago gets letter saying she is COVID-19 positive

https://www.kens5.com/article/news/i...M4y7h1rBtfXO8Y

Whittington said when he called the health department, he was told she took a COVID-19 test June 20th, which was clearly impossible. She was cremated.

[TLO]

The IHME model is doubling down.

410,451 COVID-19 deaths
based on Current projection scenario by January 1, 2021

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

This is a neat trick....

Shelby County woman who passed away 6 months ago gets letter saying she is COVID-19 positive

https://www.kens5.com/article/news/i...M4y7h1rBtfXO8Y

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by TLO

We still have people up here being notified that they tested positive after they missed their scheduled test.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

We still have people up here being notified that they tested positive after they missed their scheduled test.

I know a few people like that. But then again I was told I was lying when I mentioned it on here so you must be lying.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

The IHME model is doubling down.

So they think roughly 1,800 deaths a day between now and then give or take?

Considering we have only seen 1,500 deaths a day twice in the last few months I'd say this is yet again another bullshit model.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

The IHME model is doubling down.

Originally Posted by petegz28

So they think roughly 1,800 deaths a day between now and then give or take?

Considering we have only seen 1,500 deaths a day twice in the last few months I'd say this is yet again another bullshit model.

Even using the highest level in this last wave of the 7 day average we would fall almost 100,000 deaths short of their target. The 7 day moving average was last at 1,800 in May and has never broken 1,200 since then.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Even using the highest level in this last wave of the 7 day average we would fall almost 100,000 deaths short of their target. The 7 day moving average was last at 1,800 in May and has never broken 1,200 since then.

With a vaccine on the horizon, as well as improved treatments for those seriously ill, I don't really see it. Even looking at mortality rates from 3 or 4 months ago compared to today for those hospitalised it's a night and day difference.