***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Also, take a look around Europe right now. Yeah, they did a great job and got it under control...only to be having problems now.

It's a god damn respiratory virus. At some point, it's gonna do what they all ****ing do.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Japan had big spikes in April and last month, despite largely being mask compliant.

You know what else they didn't do? Quarantine healthy people. The government actually came out publicly and said they don't expect people to curtail their travel.

Their "big spikes" are extremely relative.





Their worst day on a per capita basis is still 5x less than our best day since this thing started. And they have a much greater population density than we do - which should work against them.

Japan never needed to quarantine healthy people because everyone followed the mask/cleaning protocol from the very beginning.

[BigCatDaddy]

Cases are all but irrelevant with testing being all over the place.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Cases are all but irrelevant with testing being all over the place.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Donger

Let me teach you something real quick.

Country A Test 2.3 people per thousand for Covid

Country B Test .16 people per thousand for Covid.

Which country do you think will show the largest number of Covid cases per thousand?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Let me teach you something real quick.

Country A Test 2.3 people per thousand for Covid

Country B Test .16 people per thousand for Covid.

Which country do you think will show the largest number of Covid cases per thousand?

That depends on how prevalent the virus is in each country.

But, I think you're on to something! If we just stop testing, we'd have zero cases, right!?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

Here's my problem with that. A large amount of people HAVE been doing those things. If we all did them, sure, we'd get the numbers down. But here's where they play their tricky magic.

"Normal life" wouldn't come back after that. Not until there's a vaccine or immunity hits. Because as soon as you stop doing those things, guess what.

I'm pretty ****ing tired of this whole elitist lecturing from these people. Normal people have uprooted and sacrificed and done waht they've been asked. Stop ****ing tell us it's our fault that we are where we are.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Update from data modeler Steven Millman (who unlike Ethical Skeptic, actually backs up his claims with plain English explanations and data):

September 10th COVID Update Hypothetical: How many Americans would have died of COVID-19 by now had we followed the path of European national responses?

SHORT VERSION: 77,305 meaning we have seen more than 113,000 unnecessary deaths SO FAR with more every day. Take this estimate with a grain of salt, because error margins are wide, but there’s no doubt the death toll could have been far lower than the current 190,000.

tl;dr as though I even need to say that anymore

Given the news of the day, a question I’ve not been generally interested in answering has come up so often that I’ve finally decided to run it. That question is, How many Americans would have died of COVID-19 by now had the government and the population reacted to the pandemic in much the same way as other developed nations which were initially hit hard? This is pure conjecture, and please take it as such. I’ll do my best to spell out the assumptions clearly.

To make a reasonable comparison, I’ve modeled the answer to this question based on countries which (1) took a heavy toll before reacting effectively, (3) eventually reacted effectively – looking at YOU Sweden, (3) are Western democracies with well-developed individual freedom, and (4) have modern medical care systems. For this thought experiment, I therefore selected Spain, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. These four countries managed to get the virus under control (more or less) after disastrous early death tolls.

On average, these countries reached their peak death rate as defined by their highest seven day average in about 32 days from the date of the first death (range: 27-37) at which point they were averaging 886 deaths per day (range: 760-975). After this sharp increase, deaths began to decline quickly, albeit at a slower rate than they rose. On average, these countries dropped to ½ of their peak death rate on 22 days later on day 54 (range: 16-27), to ¼ of their peak 18 days after on day 72 that (range 12-22) and reached an equilibrium state of just under 10 deaths per day (range 2.5-19) on about day 130.

To build a more or less similar curve, I assumed that had we responded like our European counterparts we would also have peaked on day 32 and used our actual death count on that date as the starting point for the models. I then assumed we would have dropped to ½ of that rate on day 54, ¼ of that rate on day 72, and reached equilibrium on day 130. Because of the simplicity of this approach the attached figure has a sharp peak rather than a rounded one, but it effects the estimated death count with only marginally. The attached images show the US actual 7-day average death rates as well as Italy, Spain, France and the UK along side the simplistic model of the US death rates following European models. The best fit model created an asymptote (leveling off) at about 40 deaths per day in the US. That’s much higher than the other countries, but then again, the US is a much larger country as well.

The current death toll from COVID-19 today – day 189 – in the US based on Johns Hopkins data is 190,862. The total death estimated death toll for the US on day 189 based on the European model is 77,305. Based on these assumptions, the US has allowed itself 113,557 unnecessary deaths SO FAR.

Making matters worse, we are currently averaging about 1,000 deaths each day in the US, not 40. This means that the number of unnecessary deaths is increasing by almost 1,000 Americans each and every day. My current published model for the US has us reaching equilibrium at 574 deaths per day, so when we do eventually level off (before rising again in all likelihood) we will be adding 534 unnecessary deaths per day.

REMEMBER: There are a LOT of assumptions in here to generate a best fit model estimate for the US based on the experiences in Europe. I don’t have tons of faith in the EXACT 77,305 estimate and neither should you. It is, however, quite reasonable to believe based on the data that the real unknowable answer to this hypothetical is between 50,000 and 100,000 deaths had we reacted more forcefully as a nation. No matter how you slice it, it’s a LOT lower than the results of our half-hearted and occasionally outright oppositional response to the pandemic.

So how do we get out of this literal and figurative death spiral? Simple. Do the things you already know you need to do. Avoid crowds, especially indoors. Wear a mask when around others and wash your hands frequently. Social distance. As I’ve said many, many times, we have never been much more than one month from getting the virus under control and having our normal(ish) lives back if we all collectively did these things. We can do it – all of our peers have. Please?

I understand the news of the day and that virtually everyone reading this will want to toss political blame, but honestly, I don’t find that particularly helpful. Just follow the science, encourage people to do the same. It makes no difference at this point which political tribe you follow, just do the obvious stuff and then we can get back to gleefully arguing about regular things like tax cuts, budget deficits, and judicial appointments. That sounds a lot better to me than doing these damnably depressing models.

Data are drawn from Johns Hopkins University’s COVID tracking project. As always, don’t forget I’m not a medical professional or epidemiologist. I’m a professional statistician with too much on my mind.

But hey: at least we now have the "acceptable" death toll, right?

That number and not one higher.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Donger

That depends on how prevalent the virus is in each country.

But, I think you're on to something! If we just stop testing, we'd have zero cases, right!?

Of course. Which is why Suzzer's chart is fairly pointless, yes?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Of course. Which is why Suzzer's chart is fairly pointless, yes?

You should tell Fauci and Birx that you've got a solution to this thing.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Donger

You should tell Fauci and Birx that you've got a solution to this thing.

Somewhere the point went over your head. Not shocking.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Somewhere the point went over your head. Not shocking.

If your point is that if we stop testing, cases/infections go away, yes. Completely over my head because that's stupid.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Donger

If your point is that if we stop testing, cases/infections go away, yes. Completely over my head because that's stupid.

No, and you missed the point anyways.

Suzzer's graph didn't factor in the number of test being administered only "cases". We test about 15 times more people than Japan so guess what? Obviously there are other factors to consider and I'm not claiming mask don't help to some degree. Just that a tit for tat country to country comparison is meaningless with such a large differential in test administered.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

No, and you missed the point anyways.

Suzzer's graph didn't factor in the number of test being administered only "cases". We test about 15 times more people than Japan so guess what? Obviously there are other factors to consider and I'm not claiming mask don't help to some degree. Just that a tit for tat country to country comparison is meaningless with such a large differential in test administered.

I don't disagree with that. Of course, we probably have ten times the number of confirmed cases. So, we know the numbers aren't set in stone.

What we do know is that when cases increase, so do deaths in a few weeks. Hence, my reaction to anyone saying that cases don't matter. They absolutely do matter. That's how it all starts.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BWillie

In about a month, cases are going to start increasing.

What is your thinking behind this?