***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States

Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64–99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3–36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden.

Link to study here

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4

[sedated]

Originally Posted by TLO

What is your thinking behind this?

BWillie has been banging the drum for how terrible Covid is going to get during cold and flu season since the whole thing started. Literally that's all he's said.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Donger

I don't disagree with that. Of course, we probably have ten times the number of confirmed cases. So, we know the numbers aren't set in stone.

What we do know is that when cases increase, so do deaths in a few weeks. Hence, my reaction to anyone saying that cases don't matter. They absolutely do matter. That's how it all starts.

I'm not saying cases don't matter. I'm saying comparing the number of cases without taking into the number of test being performed is silly.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by TLO

Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States

Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64–99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3–36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden.

Link to study here

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4

AGENDA POSTING

[Demonpenz]

Our elementary school closed

[TLO]

Missouri's 7 day % positivity percentage appears to be dropping. New cases are down. Hospitalizations are stable.

We'll see if it holds.

[Discuss Thrower]

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declin...f-german-data/

[sedated]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declin...f-german-data/

Severe cases of Covid (hospitalizations/deaths) do seem to have declined pretty significantly in the last couple of months. It doesn't seem like something that could be chalked up exclusively to just "younger people getting it", it spreads too easily for it to stay limited to a certain demographic across an entire country.

Anecdotal evidence, but I did hear about a friend's cousin (mid-20s) that died of Covid a week ago.

[htismaqe]

357 school districts in Iowa and only 1 isn't yet actually back to school. The Des Moines school district is now considering suing the state so that they can keep from having to go back to school.

This despite that the fact that the 2nd and 3rd largest districts in the area, Waukee and West Des Moines have had 25,000 students in class for almost 2 weeks and have a grand total of 35 cases.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

357 school districts in Iowa and only 1 isn't yet actually back to school. The Des Moines school district is now considering suing the state so that they can keep from having to go back to school.

This despite that the fact that the 2nd and 3rd largest districts in the area, Waukee and West Des Moines have had 25,000 students in class for almost 2 weeks and have a grand total of 35 cases.

What's their reasoning for not wanting to open?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by petegz28

What's their reasoning for not wanting to open?

They want to do 100% online learning but haven't really said why, at least not outright. They've said things like "student safety isn't our only concern".

[Donger]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

CDC has updated their estimates. R0 best estimate remains 2.5 They've also broken out the IFR by age group.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

CDC has updated their estimates. R0 best estimate remains 2.5 They've also broken out the IFR by age group.

IFR best estimate

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

IFR best estimate

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

Yep. The previous data was .65% overall. No idea what they think it is now.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yep. The previous data was .65% overall. No idea what they think it is now.

Pardon my ignorance, but aren't these numbers quite a bit lower than previous numbers we've seen?

Or do you have to multiply the numbers listed above by 100 or something? I think you do.