***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/...314101250?s=21

Here’s a good thread about vaccine development

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by Shiver Me Timbers

30 days to slow the spread
90 days to slow the spread
365 days to slow the spread..........................

No stopping it. Only how much we're willing to adapt to deak with it

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay, 4 months ago people on here were swearing the warm weather would no nothing to curb Covid, Donger being one of the main ones. Now suddenly it's the new boogie man we can latch onto.

Incorrect. I took issue with people saying that warm/hot temperatures during the summer would kill the virus, which was funny considering the average human body temperature is almost 100.

[suzzer99]

The virus thrives in cold/dry air. Moisture in the air (which hotter air holds a lot more of) breaks it down quicker.

None of that meant summer would end the virus, nor does it mean winter will make it go completely nuts. It's all just matters of degrees.

Also AC confuses the situation and is one thing we can't look to 1918 for guidance on. It looks like spring and fall are actually the biggest sweet spots for the US - more people outside, less AC, not much heat.

[Perineum Ripper]

I know people were talking about suicides the other day, here is an article that was sent to me

https://apnews.com/article/virus-out...hdc_WTXDpufR0Q

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

St Joe hospital is full of triumph Mexicans

Is this true?

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by TLO

Is this true?

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by mac459

I know people were talking about suicides the other day, here is an article that was sent to me

https://apnews.com/article/virus-out...hdc_WTXDpufR0Q

"They are pussies!" - Suzzer

[sedated]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

The virus thrives in cold/dry air.

Is there a source for this?

People have speculated about the cold/heat thing, but that was based on comparisons to a virus that spreads like the flu, but more research has shown its more focused on respiratory spread.

[Demonpenz]

Originally Posted by TLO

Is this true?

yep and they are illegal which sucks and they are still having parties down at lake countrary

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

yep and they are illegal which sucks and they are still having parties down at lake countrary

Have you went kayaking there?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by sedated

Is there a source for this?

People have speculated about the cold/heat thing, but that was based on comparisons to a virus that spreads like the flu, but more research has shown its more focused on respiratory spread.

DHS did a study, with supposedly one of the only two labs in the world that can do this kind of work: https://www.scribd.com/document/456897616/DHSST



They talk about it in their question sheet here. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fi...e_20200915.pdf But they also downplay seasonality as unproven.

Some other sources:

Study: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

NY Times: Warmer Weather May Slow, but Not Halt, Coronavirus

Medical News Today: How humidity may affect COVID-19 outcome

As we move from a colder winter to a warmer spring, the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic may significantly depend on levels of humidity — indoors and outdoors — a new review suggests.

All data and statistics are based on publicly available data at the time of publication. Some information may be out of date. Visit our coronavirus hub and follow our live updates page for the most recent information on the COVID-19 outbreak.

Prof. Akiko Iwasaki, an immunobiologist at Yale University, in New Haven, CT, is the senior author of the paper, which appears in the Annual Review of Virology.

As Prof. Iwasaki and the co-authors note, seasonal cycles are known to play a crucial role in the transmission of respiratory viral illnesses.

The common cold and flu reach epidemic proportions during winter. The key outbreaks of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 — the viruses that cause SARS and COVID-19, respectively — have also occurred in the winter.

The link between viral outbreak and the season has been the topic of much research. According to the authors of the new review, the two main factors that contribute to the connection are the “changes in environmental parameters and human behavior.”

Specifically, differences in temperature and humidity affect how stable and transmissible viruses are. For instance, some data reviewed in the new paper suggest that cold, dry, unventilated air may contribute to the transmission of influenza in the winter.

“Ninety percent of our lives in the developed world are spent indoors in close proximity to each other. […] What has not been talked about is the relationship of temperature and humidity in the air indoors and outdoors and aerial transmission of the virus,” says Prof. Iwasaki.

In the paper, she and the team explain how winter’s cold, dry air may affect the transmissibility of the new coronavirus.

How dry air affects immunity, viral spread
First, they say that when cold, dry air comes indoors and is warmed, the relative humidity indoors drops by about 20%. Such a drop in humidity makes it easier for airborne viral particles to travel.

Second, the hair-like organelles outside of cells that line the body’s airways, called cilia, do not function as well in dry conditions — they cannot expel viral particles as well as they otherwise would.

For instance, the new review cites one study that found that mice in an environment with 10% relative humidity had impaired clearance of the influenza virus, compared with mice in an environment with 50% relative humidity.

Furthermore, studies have shown that “Dry air exposure of mice impairs epithelial cell repair in the lung after influenza virus infection,” according to the new analysis.

Lastly, the authors point out, several studies in mice have shown that the immune response to viruses is less efficient in drier conditions.

For instance, one study found that rodents in environments with 10–20% relative humidity “succumbed to influenza virus infection more rapidly than those housed in 50% relative humidity.”

40–60% humidity may be ideal

However, the researchers note that too much outdoor humidity can also support viral spread. For instance, in tropical areas, airborne droplets that contain the virus fall on indoor surfaces, where the virus can survive for longer periods.

“Many homes and buildings [in these areas] are poorly ventilated, and people often live in close proximity, and in these cases, the benefits of higher humidity are mitigated,” Prof. Iwasaki says.

The researcher emphasizes that people can transmit the virus at any time of the year through contact with one another and contaminated surfaces. The new findings apply only to airborne transmission.

“It doesn’t matter if you live in Singapore, India, or the Arctic, you still need to wash your hands and practice social distancing,” cautions Prof. Iwasaki.

That said, the review concludes that studies in mice suggest that a relative humidity of 40–60% is ideal for containing the virus.

“That’s why I recommend humidifiers during the winter in buildings,” says the study’s senior author.

Other studies in mice also found that an environment of 50% relative humidity contributed to good viral clearance and an efficient immune response.

Here's the paper: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pd...-012420-022445

It's far from 100% lock. But in my mind there's enough evidence to think it's very likely the virus likes cold, dry air and doesn't last as long in warmer, more humid air.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

yep and they are illegal which sucks and they are still having parties down at lake countrary

The sad thing is this seems 100% plausible

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

The virus thrives in cold/dry air. Moisture in the air (which hotter air holds a lot more of) breaks it down quicker.

None of that meant summer would end the virus, nor does it mean winter will make it go completely nuts. It's all just matters of degrees.

Also AC confuses the situation and is one thing we can't look to 1918 for guidance on. It looks like spring and fall are actually the biggest sweet spots for the US - more people outside, less AC, not much heat.

All of this true. The only thing on our side (a little) is how much of the population has some sort of immunity. Based on the IFR of around 0.6%, we can guesstimate that around 10% of the USA population has some sort of immunity or antibodies. The question is how big of a dent will that put in the increased Covid-19 numbers from the cold and flu season we will start to see in about a month. if 1 out of 10 or 1 out of 15 people can't really spread the virus, I'm hoping that can go a long way.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BWillie

All of this true. The only thing on our side (a little) is how much of the population has some sort of immunity. Based on the IFR of around 0.6%, we can guesstimate that around 10% of the USA population has some sort of immunity or antibodies. The question is how big of a dent will that put in the increased Covid-19 numbers from the cold and flu season we will start to see in about a month. if 1 out of 10 or 1 out of 15 people can't really spread the virus, I'm hoping that can go a long way.

Yeah, you also gotta figure there is a fairly large amount of the population who aren't really "susceptible" to this thing. Atleast that woudl be the hope.