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Old 03-12-2023, 11:44 AM  
Otter Otter is offline
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Thoughts on the Bears winning the NFC Championship?
They're at +2800 right now with Caesar's Sports book. Convince me how this isn't worth a $200 wager.
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Old 03-12-2023, 01:12 PM   #31
Woogieman Woogieman is offline
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They're at +2800 right now with Caesar's Sports book. Convince me how this isn't worth a $200 wager.
They are so far from even winning a playoff game....
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Old 03-12-2023, 01:14 PM   #32
Woogieman Woogieman is offline
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I think I can handle $200 either way. Their just looking like a diamond in the rough right now.
To me, they still look llike blue poop in a Port-a-potty
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Old 03-12-2023, 01:16 PM   #33
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I don't gamble, so I am not sure how this all works. But I am assuming a $200 bet nets you $560,000 if the Bears win the NFC.

So if the Bears do not make the playoffs, you are out $200.

But, in theory, if they do qualify, could you not start hedging with each round of the playoffs?

For example. Say they win the North and play at home in the WC round.

Bet $10,000 on the opponent. Bears lose, and you are up roughly $10,000.

Bears win, and you now have $10,200 invested to make $560,000. And you are on to the Divisional Round.

Bet $20,000 on the opponent. Bears lose, and you are up roughly $9,800.

Bears win, and you now have $30,200 invested to make $560,000. And you are on to the NFC Championship Game.

Bet $250,000 on the opponent. Bears lose and you profit around $220,000 off of your original $200 bet. Bears win and you make around $250,000 on your original $200 wager.

Is this thinking flawed?
+2800 would pay out $5600 on a $200 bet. But your process of thinking is correct, although hedging is extremely negative expected value.
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Old 03-12-2023, 01:17 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Coogs View Post
I don't gamble, so I am not sure how this all works. But I am assuming a $200 bet nets you $560,000 if the Bears win the NFC.

So if the Bears do not make the playoffs, you are out $200.

But, in theory, if they do qualify, could you not start hedging with each round of the playoffs?

For example. Say they win the North and play at home in the WC round.

Bet $10,000 on the opponent. Bears lose, and you are up roughly $10,000.

Bears win, and you now have $10,200 invested to make $560,000. And you are on to the Divisional Round.

Bet $20,000 on the opponent. Bears lose, and you are up roughly $9,800.

Bears win, and you now have $30,200 invested to make $560,000. And you are on to the NFC Championship Game.

Bet $250,000 on the opponent. Bears lose and you profit around $220,000 off of your original $200 bet. Bears win and you make around $250,000 on your original $200 wager.

Is this thinking flawed?
+2800 means that for every 100 wagered you would win that much. Otter is betting 200 to win 5600.
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Old 03-12-2023, 01:19 PM   #35
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Should definitely wait to see if Lamar ends up in SF because nobody in the NFC is beating them if he does.
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Old 03-12-2023, 01:22 PM   #36
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+2800 would pay out $5600 on a $200 bet. But your process of thinking is correct, although hedging is extremely negative expected value.
Oh. Okay. Told you I didn't gamble.
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Old 03-12-2023, 02:52 PM   #37
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The division? Sure

The conference? Not so much.
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Old 03-12-2023, 02:55 PM   #38
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Old 03-12-2023, 05:41 PM   #39
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The Bears won't even win their own division much less get to the Super Bowl.

That defense is a dumpster fire until proven otherwise, and that OLine is still hot garbage even if they add OBj. They can take a big step this year like the Lions did last year but that doesn't put them with the top dogs in the NFC yet. Dallas, Philly, Minnesota, San Francisco, and Seattle aren't going to suddenly suck complete shit I have to think and the Giants and Lions look to have arrows pointing North.
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Old 03-12-2023, 05:45 PM   #40
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The Bears are a team with a 30+ year history of screwing up almost everything, maybe don’t put your mortgage on that having changed in the last week
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Old 03-12-2023, 05:46 PM   #41
BWillie BWillie is offline
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People who do sports betting to actually "make money" are ****ing idiots.
Yes.

If I ever say things like "the sharps".

Just ****ing put me out of my misery. Nobody really knows anything about sportsbetting to beat it, maybe a verrrry small percentage who are extremely selective.
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Old 03-12-2023, 05:59 PM   #42
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I made $40k last year doing it
You're the minority though. Doesn't mean everyone else can. It's worth a shot for someone to try. But if you see you are not good at it after a certain period of time it's probably best to move on and try something else.
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Old 03-12-2023, 06:03 PM   #43
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You're the minority though. Doesn't mean everyone else can. It's worth a shot for someone to try. But if you see you are not good at it after a certain period of time it's probably best to move on and try something else.
Oh I don’t disagree it’s not for everyone, and it isn’t sustainable. I’m already limited to basically nothing on BetMGM and can only bet main lines on DraftKings. Only a matter of time for the rest.
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Old 03-12-2023, 06:38 PM   #44
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The Bears won't even win their own division much less get to the Super Bowl.

That defense is a dumpster fire until proven otherwise, and that OLine is still hot garbage even if they add OBj. They can take a big step this year like the Lions did last year but that doesn't put them with the top dogs in the NFC yet. Dallas, Philly, Minnesota, San Francisco, and Seattle aren't going to suddenly suck complete shit I have to think and the Giants and Lions look to have arrows pointing North.
Minnesota is going to suck big time. They're old and shedding players and contracts like crazy. It's not good.
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Old 03-12-2023, 06:39 PM   #45
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+2800 isn't that bad. Way back in the day I was messing around and decided to put $400 on BAL to win the SB just because the odds were +7800 or something like that. And then they won, lol. I made that bet sometime during preseason and by the time the SB rolled around I'd completely forgotten about it. It was a nice X-Mas.

I think as long as you bet for fun, and not to try and make $$$ (to cover your mortgage payment or something crazy) it can be fun.

Though, I'd bet on DET to win that division next season.
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