Chiefs will go 5-11 this season...

[MoreLemonPledge]

...according to WalterFootball.com. I like the guy, but his Chiefs hate is ridiculous.

http://walterfootball.com/offseason2011kc.php

Kansas City Chiefs (Last Year: 10-6)

2011 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
WR Steve Breaston, ILB Brandon Siler, NT Kelly Gregg.
Early Draft Picks:
WR Jonathan Baldwin, C Rodney Hudson, DE/OLB Justin Houston, CB Jalil Brown, NT Jerrell Powe.
Offseason Losses:
OC Charlie Weis, WR Chris Chambers, G Brian Waters, DE/DT Shaun Smith, NT Ron Edwards, DE/OLB Mike Vrabel, CB Maurice Leggett.

2011 Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
What the Chiefs were able to accomplish in 2010 was a testament to the impact great offensive and defensive coordinators can have in the NFL. Matt Cassel was lost in 2009, completing 55 percent of his passes as he threw for 2,924 yards, 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions with a dreadful 5.9 YPA. With Charlie Weis, Cassel's numbers improved to 3,116 yards, 27 touchdowns, seven picks, with a 6.9 YPA and a 58.2 completion percentage.

Unfortunately for Cassel, Weis is gone. Weis and Todd Haley were at odds with each other, as Haley reportedly stripped Weis of his play-calling duties in the second half of the team's playoff loss to Baltimore. Cassel will undoubtedly struggle with first-year coordinator Bill Muir; the former Patriot quarterback was already showing signs of regression at the end of last season. In his final two games, including the playoff contest, Cassel was a combined 20-of-48 for 185 yards, no touchdowns and five interceptions. That's a completion percentage of 41.7 and a YPA of 3.9.

Cassel's just not very good. He has accuracy issues and struggles to make all of the throws because of a lacking arm. Cassel completed just 14-of-57 attempts longer than 20 yards in 2010, bad enough for last place in that category in the NFL.

Cassel has two very talented players around him to prevent a complete collapse. Those would be obviously be Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. Charles is one of the better running backs in the NFL, capable of going the distance on any play. What's frustrating, however, is that Haley refuses to utilize Charles as much as he should, perhaps believing that Charles is too small and brittle (5-11, 199) to carry the load. Charles received only one touch after the first drive in the second half of that Baltimore loss. That's inexcusable.

Bowe impressively snagged 15 touchdowns last year. It's unreasonable to expect him to duplicate that feat - especially with the departure of Weis - but Bowe remains a legitimate No. 1 receiver. He'll be joined by two new acquisitions in the receiving corps: rookie Jonathan Baldwin and former Cardinal Steve Breaston. Baldwin is a physical freak at 6-4, 228, but like most rookies, he's going to struggle this year because of the shortened offseason. Breaston, meanwhile, was probably a waste of a signing. Arizona put forth no effort to retain him because his knees are shot.

Luckily for Cassel, he'll have a secondary reliable weapon in tight end Tony Moeaki, who hauled in 47 receptions for 556 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie in 2010. Moeaki was constantly injured at Iowa, so it was a pleasant surprise to see him stay healthy in his first NFL season.

Kansas City's offensive line remains a concern. The good news is that the team was happy to get back center Casey Wiegmann for one more year. Wiegmann is a declining player at 38, but he's reliable and will provide some continuity up front as rookie Rodney Hudson is groomed to replace him.

The bad news is two-fold. First, the Chiefs still have gaping holes at the tackle positions. Left tackle Branden Albert surrendered 11 sacks (including one in the playoff loss) and was penalized nine times last year. On the other side, Kansas City will feature a platoon of Ryan O'Callaghan and Barry Richardson. The former is the better of the two, but he can't stay healthy. Richardson, meanwhile, is brutal in pass protection.

Second, the Chiefs parted ways with their best offensive lineman this offseason, Brian Waters. Second-year Jon Asamoah will step into the left guard slot. Asamoah has just one career start. He played well in that game, but the Bills didn't exactly offer much of a challenge. With Waters gone, Kansas City's new top lineman is right guard Ryan Lilja, who gave up just one sack.



2011 Kansas City Chiefs Defense:
Just as Charlie Weis worked miracles with the offense, Romeo Crennel upgraded a Kansas City defense that overachieved past its talent level in 2010. Though unlike Weis, Crennel will remain with the team for a second year.

One area in which the Chiefs struggled despite Crennel's best efforts was run defense. They ranked 20th in the NFL, allowing 4.4 yards per carry to the opposition. That figure will improve in 2011, thanks to the addition of nose tackle Kelly Gregg. Gregg is old (35), but still proved to be a sound, two-down run-stuffer with the Ravens last year. He'll probably wear down as the season goes on, so Kansas City fans will be hoping that sixth-round rookie Jerrell Powe can step in if needed in late November or December.

A pair of former top-five draft picks join Gregg up front. After two disappointing seasons, Glenn Dorsey played very well in 2010. He didn't offer much of a pass rush (two sacks), but was very stout against the run. Tyson Jackson, on the other hand, struggled once again. He gave way to Wallace Gilberry on third down. The 6-2, 270-pound Gilberry was second on the team with seven sacks. He'll be back in 2011 after getting a second-round tender this offseason.

Gilberry trailed only Tamba Hali in sacks. Hali had a magnificent 2010 campaign, recording 16.5 sacks if you count the pair he registered in the playoffs. Hali was franchised, and figures to be even more dangerous once the Chiefs can develop rookie Justin Houston at the other rush linebacker position. Houston was a first-round talent who slipped to the third round this past April due to character concerns. He probably won't contribute much this year because of the shortened offseason, so it'll be up to Andy Studebaker to replace the retired Mike Vrabel; Studebaker had 2.5 sacks in limited playing time in 2010.

The rest of Kansas City's linebacking corps is comprised of Derrick Johnson, a Pro Bowler, and Jovan Belcher. Belcher is relatively unknown, but played well at times last season. The 24-year-old Maine product stood out in the playoff loss to the Ravens, notching five tackles and two sacks. He'll face training camp competition from former Charger Brandon Siler.

The strength of the Chiefs' defense is in the secondary. Kansas City boasts one of the top cornerback tandems in the entire league. Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr were largely responsible for the team ranking fifth in the NFL in terms of YPA allowed (6.6).

Kansas City's safety play wasn't bad either. Eric Berry, chosen No. 5 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft, really struggled early on, but settled in as the season went along. He was great in the team's loss to Baltimore. Kendrick Lewis, manning the free safety slot, was solid, but unspectacular.



2011 Kansas City Chiefs Schedule and Intangibles:
As stated earlier, the loss of Charlie Weis will be huge. New offensive coordinator Bill Muir never developed a quarterback when he held that job in Tampa Bay from 2002 to 2008, so it's likely that Matt Cassel, and consequently the offense as a whole, will regress this season.

The Chiefs brought back the Arrowhead magic that was missing between the 2007 and 2009 seasons. In that span, Kansas City was 4-20 as a host. In 2010, that record was 7-2, though one of the two losses was to Baltimore in the playoffs.

Here's a dubious Todd Haley stat: In his two years with the Chiefs, he is 3-7 after Dec. 5. That obviously has to improve.

The Chiefs had that Dexter McCluster punt return for a touchdown in the opener against San Diego, but didn't score again on special teams after that. Javier Arenas' 8.3 punt return average was disappointing.

Kicker Ryan Succop drilled 25-of-29 attempts as a rookie in 2009, but was just 20-of-26 last year. He was just 1-of-3 from 50-plus. Meanwhile, punter Dustin Colquitt was solid, maintaining a 44.4 average with 33-of-88 attempts inside the 20.

Kansas City feasted on a ridiculously easy schedule last season; excluding Seattle for obvious reasons, the team didn't beat a single playoff squad in 2010. In fact, the Chiefs battled just three teams that reached the postseason last year: aforementioned Seattle, Indianapolis (19-9 loss) and Baltimore (30-7 loss). It gets much more difficult this year. Six of this season's opponents reached the playoffs: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay and the New York Jets.



2011 Kansas City Chiefs Analysis: Kansas City overachieved last year, thanks to great coaching and an easy schedule. The team won't be as lucky in 2011. Charlie Weis is gone, while the schedule is more taxing.

I expect the opposite to occur this year. Instead of being worse than their record indicated in 2010, they'll be better than their record indicates this season. Their brutal, late stretch of consecutive games against the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers will knock them out of AFC West contention.

Projection: 5-11 (TBA in AFC West)

[ChiefMojo]

Considering our offensive attack is mostly based off of the running game, we should be in good company. We added more weapons to the passing game as well. Weis may be gone, but it isn't like Haley didn't know what went on... he knows what worked.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by ChiefMojo

Wasn't Haley considered a fantastic OC before coming to KC?

The only thing people choose to remember about Haley's time in Arizona was that he was a fantastic asshole, not necessarily a fantastic OC

[notorious]

Originally Posted by MoreLemonPledge

...according to WalterFootball.com. I like the guy, but his Chiefs hate is ridiculous.

http://walterfootball.com/offseason2011kc.php

Cassel's just not very good. He has accuracy issues and struggles to make all of the throws because of a lacking arm. Cassel completed just 14-of-57 attempts longer than 20 yards in 2010, bad enough for last place in that category in the NFL.

Where have we heard this before?



****!

[notorious]

Originally Posted by SNR

The only thing people choose to remember about Haley's time in Arizona was that he was a fantastic asshole, not necessarily a fantastic OC

Warner, Fitz, Boldin.

Haley seems to be doing fine, but his resume at Arizona is no indicator.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'll be honest - his analysis doesn't really jibe with his prediction.

I mean he kinda concedes that the Chiefs defense is actually pretty stout and should improve. He further gives quite a bit of credit to Charles and Bowe.

His projections and analysis suggest something like a 7-9/8-8 team. I guess he qualifies it by saying that they'll be better than their record, but it really comes across as sour grapes.

I don't see anything wrong with any of his analysis - I think it's mostly spot-on. That said, I still think this team stays in the hunt for most of the season and slides in within a game of .500 in either direction.

This is basically how I see it. With the tougher schedule, I won't be surprised if we end up 8-8, though I hope we don't end up at 7-9. A lot depends on all the new guys.

[TheGuardian]

We're not going 5-11. That's really ****ing stupid.

[suzzer99]

Remember kids:

Actual NFL scout or GM >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
analysts who write for FO/Advanced NFL stats, etc >>>
rabid knowledgeable fan wrt his own team >
fantasy football fanatic wrt offensive players >>>
DVOA spouting stat nerd >>>
rabid knowledgeable fan wrt someone else's team >
Ron Jaworski >>>>
All other pundits that don't work for the NFL Network, and most of them too >>>>>>
fantasy football fanatic wrt non-scoring players >>>
the casual fan who thinks going for 4th and 1 on their 43 is "too risky" >>>>>>>
Trent Dilfer >>>>
Paris Hilton >>>>>>>>>>>>
e. coli >>>>>>>
Matt Millen >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
walterfootball


He's been butthurt ever since we drafted Berry and not an LT. He was calling Berry a bust late into the season. Walter has just terrible analysis wrt to the Chiefs.

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2010_15early.php

Jackson's running will open up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Sam Bradford. Bradford struggled in the raucous Superdome last week - as all rookie quarterbacks do - but figures to rebound against the Chiefs, who have issues at safety. Eric Berry has been a disappointment this year, while Kendrick Lewis is just mediocre at this stage of his career.

This is from week 15 last year. Is he just joking or is he really this stupid?

[notorious]

Originally Posted by TheGuardian

We're not going 5-11. That's really ****ing stupid.

I agree.


It's time this team shows how solid it is in nearly every position.


The Chiefs are a good team, waiting to grow into an excellent one.


9-7 minimum. I don't give a **** how much the media sucks off the NFC East and AFC East. This team can and will compete.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by notorious

I agree.


It's time this team shows how solid it is in nearly every position.


The Chiefs are a good team, waiting to grow into an excellent one.


9-7 minimum. I don't give a **** how much the media sucks off the NFC East and AFC East. This team can and will compete.

The butthurt in Walter will grow even stronger when his prediction fails miserably.

[TheGuardian]

Originally Posted by notorious

I agree.


It's time this team shows how solid it is in nearly every position.


The Chiefs are a good team, waiting to grow into an excellent one.


9-7 minimum. I don't give a **** how much the media sucks off the NFC East and AFC East. This team can and will compete.

I'm not even sure if I buy this take a step back stuff. The AFC West is going to be really weak. Weaker than last year. The Raiders and Broncos are going to suck nuts terribly. The Chargers will be competitive but that window has closed. They aren't, and never have been, as talented as people claim.

If we're torn up with massive injuries sure, we could tank to 5-11 but we're going to play good defense and run the ball. That alone almost always assures you of something in the 8-8 neighborhood.

[Rexx]

Until the Chiefs prove they can beat good teams, few people are going to believe in this team. All the praise is marked with the soft schedule comment. Make no mistake, this team has made huge strides but we are not there yet. Let's hope we can beat some of the big boys on Sunday/Monday night. Might start getting a little respect.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Rexx

Until the Chiefs prove they can beat good teams, few people are going to believe in this team. All the praise is marked with the soft schedule comment. Make no mistake, this team has made huge strides but we are not there yet. Let's hope we can beat some of the big boys on Sunday/Monday night. Might start getting a little respect.

I agree.


I think this team is growing into the type of team that the big-boys don't want to meet.

[suzzer99]

Yes we have a much tougher schedule, but there's no reason to think the Chiefs won't make big strides this year. We lose no one except maybe Shaun Smith. Everyone we have who is any good is either peaking or getting a lot better. Our secondary has a chance to be dominant. We have 3 other pro-bowl caliber defenders. Our QB is going to be a lot more comfortable and hopefully make the same level of improvement this year he did last. And we have 3-5 extremely talented skill players on offense.

More than anything I think Haley proved last year he knows what he's doing when it comes to player development. No one except Chambers slipped back, Charles got even better, Hali and Flowers stayed at pro-bowl level, and Bowe, DJ, Carr, Dorsey all had huge breakouts. That combined with the level of young raw talent on this team is reason enough for optimism imo that we could break through into one of the elite AFC teams.

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by MoreLemonPledge

...according to WalterFootball.com. I like the guy, but his Chiefs hate is ridiculous.

http://walterfootball.com/offseason2011kc.php

Kansas City Chiefs (Last Year: 10-6)

2011 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
WR Steve Breaston, ILB Brandon Siler, NT Kelly Gregg.
Early Draft Picks:
WR Jonathan Baldwin, C Rodney Hudson, DE/OLB Justin Houston, CB Jalil Brown, NT Jerrell Powe.
Offseason Losses:
OC Charlie Weis, WR Chris Chambers, G Brian Waters, DE/DT Shaun Smith, NT Ron Edwards, DE/OLB Mike Vrabel, CB Maurice Leggett.

2011 Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
What the Chiefs were able to accomplish in 2010 was a testament to the impact great offensive and defensive coordinators can have in the NFL. Matt Cassel was lost in 2009, completing 55 percent of his passes as he threw for 2,924 yards, 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions with a dreadful 5.9 YPA. With Charlie Weis, Cassel's numbers improved to 3,116 yards, 27 touchdowns, seven picks, with a 6.9 YPA and a 58.2 completion percentage.

Unfortunately for Cassel, Weis is gone. Weis and Todd Haley were at odds with each other, as Haley reportedly stripped Weis of his play-calling duties in the second half of the team's playoff loss to Baltimore. Cassel will undoubtedly struggle with first-year coordinator Bill Muir; the former Patriot quarterback was already showing signs of regression at the end of last season. In his final two games, including the playoff contest, Cassel was a combined 20-of-48 for 185 yards, no touchdowns and five interceptions. That's a completion percentage of 41.7 and a YPA of 3.9.

Cassel's just not very good. He has accuracy issues and struggles to make all of the throws because of a lacking arm. Cassel completed just 14-of-57 attempts longer than 20 yards in 2010, bad enough for last place in that category in the NFL.

Cassel has two very talented players around him to prevent a complete collapse. Those would be obviously be Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. Charles is one of the better running backs in the NFL, capable of going the distance on any play. What's frustrating, however, is that Haley refuses to utilize Charles as much as he should, perhaps believing that Charles is too small and brittle (5-11, 199) to carry the load. Charles received only one touch after the first drive in the second half of that Baltimore loss. That's inexcusable.

Bowe impressively snagged 15 touchdowns last year. It's unreasonable to expect him to duplicate that feat - especially with the departure of Weis - but Bowe remains a legitimate No. 1 receiver. He'll be joined by two new acquisitions in the receiving corps: rookie Jonathan Baldwin and former Cardinal Steve Breaston. Baldwin is a physical freak at 6-4, 228, but like most rookies, he's going to struggle this year because of the shortened offseason. Breaston, meanwhile, was probably a waste of a signing. Arizona put forth no effort to retain him because his knees are shot.

Luckily for Cassel, he'll have a secondary reliable weapon in tight end Tony Moeaki, who hauled in 47 receptions for 556 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie in 2010. Moeaki was constantly injured at Iowa, so it was a pleasant surprise to see him stay healthy in his first NFL season.

Kansas City's offensive line remains a concern. The good news is that the team was happy to get back center Casey Wiegmann for one more year. Wiegmann is a declining player at 38, but he's reliable and will provide some continuity up front as rookie Rodney Hudson is groomed to replace him.

The bad news is two-fold. First, the Chiefs still have gaping holes at the tackle positions. Left tackle Branden Albert surrendered 11 sacks (including one in the playoff loss) and was penalized nine times last year. On the other side, Kansas City will feature a platoon of Ryan O'Callaghan and Barry Richardson. The former is the better of the two, but he can't stay healthy. Richardson, meanwhile, is brutal in pass protection.

Second, the Chiefs parted ways with their best offensive lineman this offseason, Brian Waters. Second-year Jon Asamoah will step into the left guard slot. Asamoah has just one career start. He played well in that game, but the Bills didn't exactly offer much of a challenge. With Waters gone, Kansas City's new top lineman is right guard Ryan Lilja, who gave up just one sack.



2011 Kansas City Chiefs Defense:
Just as Charlie Weis worked miracles with the offense, Romeo Crennel upgraded a Kansas City defense that overachieved past its talent level in 2010. Though unlike Weis, Crennel will remain with the team for a second year.

One area in which the Chiefs struggled despite Crennel's best efforts was run defense. They ranked 20th in the NFL, allowing 4.4 yards per carry to the opposition. That figure will improve in 2011, thanks to the addition of nose tackle Kelly Gregg. Gregg is old (35), but still proved to be a sound, two-down run-stuffer with the Ravens last year. He'll probably wear down as the season goes on, so Kansas City fans will be hoping that sixth-round rookie Jerrell Powe can step in if needed in late November or December.

A pair of former top-five draft picks join Gregg up front. After two disappointing seasons, Glenn Dorsey played very well in 2010. He didn't offer much of a pass rush (two sacks), but was very stout against the run. Tyson Jackson, on the other hand, struggled once again. He gave way to Wallace Gilberry on third down. The 6-2, 270-pound Gilberry was second on the team with seven sacks. He'll be back in 2011 after getting a second-round tender this offseason.

Gilberry trailed only Tamba Hali in sacks. Hali had a magnificent 2010 campaign, recording 16.5 sacks if you count the pair he registered in the playoffs. Hali was franchised, and figures to be even more dangerous once the Chiefs can develop rookie Justin Houston at the other rush linebacker position. Houston was a first-round talent who slipped to the third round this past April due to character concerns. He probably won't contribute much this year because of the shortened offseason, so it'll be up to Andy Studebaker to replace the retired Mike Vrabel; Studebaker had 2.5 sacks in limited playing time in 2010.

The rest of Kansas City's linebacking corps is comprised of Derrick Johnson, a Pro Bowler, and Jovan Belcher. Belcher is relatively unknown, but played well at times last season. The 24-year-old Maine product stood out in the playoff loss to the Ravens, notching five tackles and two sacks. He'll face training camp competition from former Charger Brandon Siler.

The strength of the Chiefs' defense is in the secondary. Kansas City boasts one of the top cornerback tandems in the entire league. Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr were largely responsible for the team ranking fifth in the NFL in terms of YPA allowed (6.6).

Kansas City's safety play wasn't bad either. Eric Berry, chosen No. 5 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft, really struggled early on, but settled in as the season went along. He was great in the team's loss to Baltimore. Kendrick Lewis, manning the free safety slot, was solid, but unspectacular.



2011 Kansas City Chiefs Schedule and Intangibles:
As stated earlier, the loss of Charlie Weis will be huge. New offensive coordinator Bill Muir never developed a quarterback when he held that job in Tampa Bay from 2002 to 2008, so it's likely that Matt Cassel, and consequently the offense as a whole, will regress this season.

The Chiefs brought back the Arrowhead magic that was missing between the 2007 and 2009 seasons. In that span, Kansas City was 4-20 as a host. In 2010, that record was 7-2, though one of the two losses was to Baltimore in the playoffs.

Here's a dubious Todd Haley stat: In his two years with the Chiefs, he is 3-7 after Dec. 5. That obviously has to improve.

The Chiefs had that Dexter McCluster punt return for a touchdown in the opener against San Diego, but didn't score again on special teams after that. Javier Arenas' 8.3 punt return average was disappointing.

Kicker Ryan Succop drilled 25-of-29 attempts as a rookie in 2009, but was just 20-of-26 last year. He was just 1-of-3 from 50-plus. Meanwhile, punter Dustin Colquitt was solid, maintaining a 44.4 average with 33-of-88 attempts inside the 20.

Kansas City feasted on a ridiculously easy schedule last season; excluding Seattle for obvious reasons, the team didn't beat a single playoff squad in 2010. In fact, the Chiefs battled just three teams that reached the postseason last year: aforementioned Seattle, Indianapolis (19-9 loss) and Baltimore (30-7 loss). It gets much more difficult this year. Six of this season's opponents reached the playoffs: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay and the New York Jets.



2011 Kansas City Chiefs Analysis: Kansas City overachieved last year, thanks to great coaching and an easy schedule. The team won't be as lucky in 2011. Charlie Weis is gone, while the schedule is more taxing.

I expect the opposite to occur this year. Instead of being worse than their record indicated in 2010, they'll be better than their record indicates this season. Their brutal, late stretch of consecutive games against the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers will knock them out of AFC West contention.

Projection: 5-11 (TBA in AFC West)

[FloridaMan88]

Tougher schedule + A potential disaster in the making at offensive line is not a good combination.