Buyer Beware ... Cornerbacks

[Mr. Laz]

CFF Overview: CB – Buyer Beware
Gordon McGuinness | April 17, 2015
CFF-overview-CB-beware

As we continue to look through the mass of CFF data we have collected, we’re turning our attention to cornerbacks. After bringing you the top of the crop and sleepers earlier in the week we now turn our attention to the Buyer Beware section.

The top of this cornerback class is filled with question marks and you can still find players 10-15 spots deep that aren’t too far away from the guys at the top. That means the guys at the top come with the added question mark of how much of a gamble you are taking by spending a high draft pick on them. So here are five players who we think teams should be wary of in the NFL draft.

Trae Waynes, Michigan St.

Waynes is regarded by many as the top cornerback in this class and at times it’s easy to see why. He has speed to burn and shows confidence, never looking worried about being beaten deep. He also holds the point well against a block and performs well against the run. Despite all that, though, there are some question marks that make him a risk to be selected as high as many are predicting.

His awareness at times is questionable, and there are times when he lost the ball in the air by focusing too much on the wide receiver in front of him. Those lapses leave him flapping after noticing the ball in the air, leading to contact which could lead to more flags in the NFL. His tackling can also be a bit suspect as he has a tendency to throw himself at tackles in space, a little bit like Asante Samuel, rather than wrapping up. That’s something that will cost him a few big plays when he misses, and something he must clean up in the NFL.

Signature stat: Missed a tackle once every 8.3 attempts.

Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest

CFF-inset-kevin-johnsonJohnson is also regarded as a first-round draft pick by many, but in a similar way to Justin Hardy at wide receiver he’s someone that neither myself nor Sam see the hype with. He does have great balance which stops him from being beaten immediately off the line where so much damage can be done, but there are too many question marks in the rest of his game.

He doesn’t possess great top-level speed on the field. This will lead to him losing plenty of one-on-one battles with NFL receivers and at times it looked like he was deliberately playing off to protect his speed. The need to jump up from there and attack under routes led to him being beaten on double moves on more than one occasion. Like Waynes, he too can be a bit of a sloppy tackler at times, tilting his head down and trying to tackle blind far too often which led to 10 misses last season.

Signature Stat: Missed a tackle once every 5.1 attempted, tied for the ninth-worst of all draft-eligible cornerbacks in this class.

P.J. Williams, Florida St.

CFF-inset-pj-williamsWilliams is arguably the most frustrating cornerback in this draft class and is the perfect example of how subset scouting can lead to a guy being overhyped. In his best games, he looked very good when getting his hands on a wide receiver early and attacked the run and screen passes aggressively, launching himself through blockers.

The problem with Williams is inconsistency. As good as he looked against Louisville and DeVante Parker, he played very poorly against Syracuse, North Carolina State, and Georgia Tech. Very good when he gets his hands on a receiver, but as soon as he loses direct contact he struggles, something that will be a big issue in the NFL. Like the previous two we mentioned, he missed too many tackles in 2014. It’s not something he doesn’t look capable of, but poor technique such as arm tackles and trying to swat at the ball when he’s in a bad position give him big problems.

Signature Stat: Williams allowed a quarterback rating of 100.0 on all passes thrown into his coverage.

Eric Rowe, Utah

CFF-inset-roweRowe is a cornerback who divides opinion, with some seeing him as a better prospect at safety than cornerback, while others think he’s a better fit at the position he played during his final season in college. One thing you can say for Rowe is he’s very strong. In the Washington State game he was too physical for the receivers he went up against and made life miserable for them. He’s physical enough that he makes contested catches tough on wide receivers, and works best in press-man when he’s able to get his hands on the wide receiver.

The problem with Rowe is he looks very uncomfortable in off-coverage at times, looking lost and struggling to get a feel for everything around him. He also struggles with recovery speed so when he loses at the line of scrimmage he’s in trouble. Any success he has in the NFL will come from being able to get a good jam on wide receivers at the line of scrimmage unless he can improve his work in off-coverage.

Signature Stat: Was targeted once every 6.6 snaps in coverage.



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[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Al Bundy

Rowe is a Safety at the next level.

Not for this team.

And, IMO, he's a better CB at the same level in the same system as Sean Smith was.

His initial jam is near perfect and he's got better turn and flip than Smith at the same stage.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Not for this team.

And, IMO, he's a better CB at the same level in the same system as Sean Smith was.

His initial jam is near perfect and he's got better turn and flip than Smith at the same stage.

Their negatives are pretty similar if you ask me...

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Their negatives are pretty similar if you ask me...

I've watched them both in college and Rowe has better potential at CB than Smith - for this system. He's terrific in press man and keeps a better/closer distance than Smith, who tends to overly rely on his length for recovery.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

I've watched them both in college and Rowe has better potential at CB than Smith - for this system. He's terrific in press man and keeps a better/closer distance than Smith, who tends to overly rely on his length for recovery.

Rowe probably has more raw talent (from what I've read.) Both have questions playing off (which I'm not a fan of anyway.)

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

I've watched them both in college and Rowe has better potential at CB than Smith - for this system. He's terrific in press man and keeps a better/closer distance than Smith, who tends to overly rely on his length for recovery.

do we want 2 sean smiths or do we need a guy that can handle more speed?

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Actually, Eric Rowe hits every single mark that Dorsey looks for in a prospect.

I wouldn't be overly shocked if he's selected in the first and it's a no-brainer in the second.

Well' IMO, #18 ON Rowe is a waste of a resource. I'd certainly rather have Parker or Agholor or Kendricks and (gulp) I'd be better with a long term investment at right tackle with Flowers or Collins than Rowe.

I'm not so sure about a trade down, either, unless there was a 2nd involved next year and most definitely a third this year. Even then, the Chiefs would need to be able to jump into the upper half of the second round in order to get a player better than what they could in the third this year.

If the Chiefs could position themselves with a trade down to get three guys in the top 60 this year, I'd be all for it although history says it's rare that all of those players become productive.

Look at Minnesota 2013 for proof, or just about any BB draft.

Quantity doesn't equal quality.

[O.city]

I'd like to have more darts to throw at the board, but they can't trade out of the 1st and lose the 5th year option.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

I've watched them both in college and Rowe has better potential at CB than Smith - for this system. He's terrific in press man and keeps a better/closer distance than Smith, who tends to overly rely on his length for recovery.

Pretty spot-on analysis.

Smith knows he isn't terribly fast but he also knows he's a goddamn giant in relation to his peers. He'll often look beat only to reach up and flick a ball away because of his length. I noticed it the very first time I saw him in training camp - it's a technique for him. It's not something I'd recommend.

I don't love Rowe because I do think he's athletically a little limited. I worry that smaller/quicker WRs will give him fits because I just don't see how he hangs with them. That said, he does appear to be a very nice fit for our system. If he gets his hands on those waterbug types, he'll just swallow them right up because of his physicality.

His quickness measurables all timed extremely well so perhaps I'm just seeing some stiffness that isn't there. If that's the case, he has every tool you could want for this system. My eyes have lied to me before.

Corners are about the riskiest position in the draft anymore, IMO. That said, I like the idea of aggressively targeting one here. Sure, he could bust but that is just the nature of the beast with CBs. If Gaines/Fleming are demonstrations of Dorsey's eye for CBs, then I'm pretty comfortable deferring to him on his CB decision.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

do we want 2 sean smiths or do we need a guy that can handle more speed?

My eyes agree with you here but the stopwatch doesn't.

It's dangerous to put too much faith in the underwear olympics, but Rowe timed in the top 1/3 for his 40 time and in the top 15% for his 3 cone and 20 yrd shuttle times. His broad jump was in the top 1/4 and his vertical jump in the top 20% as well. His Bench was top 20%.

So his quickness numbers are very good (SS and 3-cone) and his long speed is above average (40). His explosion appears to be pretty good based on his broad and vertical jumps and his bench was very good. At 6'1 with 31 inch arms he's going to have a wider coverage radius than most corners and at 200+ lbs he's going to be solid in run-support.

Physically the guy really does nail it, or at least he did at the combine. But he's one of those guys that I just don't quite see it on the tape. Again, it's possible I'm just not being fair to him because he's a converted safety so I expect to see a guy with less athletic ability. I will concede that I have no answer for the disconnect between what I see and what the stopwatch seems to show.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't love Rowe because I do think he's athletically a little limited. I worry that smaller/quicker WRs will give him fits because I just don't see how he hangs with them. That said, he does appear to be a very nice fit for our system. If he gets his hands on those waterbug types, he'll just swallow them right up because of his physicality.

Isn't Gaines our slot/nickel CB?

And with Gaines back there I like having a more physical duo on the outside...

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Isn't Gaines our slot/nickel CB?

And with Gaines back there I like having a more physical duo on the outside...

If we drafted a CB early? I would assume that Gaines would be our nickle CB. If we don't....then I'm assuming that they think Gaines could be the starter opposite of Smith.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

My eyes agree with you here but the stopwatch doesn't.

It's dangerous to put too much faith in the underwear olympics, but Rowe timed in the top 1/3 for his 40 time and in the top 15% for his 3 cone and 20 yrd shuttle times. His broad jump was in the top 1/4 and his vertical jump in the top 20% as well. His Bench was top 20%.

So his quickness numbers are very good (SS and 3-cone) and his long speed is above average (40). His explosion appears to be pretty good based on his broad and vertical jumps and his bench was very good. At 6'1 with 31 inch arms he's going to have a wider coverage radius than most corners and at 200+ lbs he's going to be solid in run-support.

Physically the guy really does nail it, or at least he did at the combine. But he's one of those guys that I just don't quite see it on the tape. Again, it's possible I'm just not being fair to him because he's a converted safety so I expect to see a guy with less athletic ability. I will concede that I have no answer for the disconnect between what I see and what the stopwatch seems to show.

Much of it depends on how he responds to coaching and continuing to learn the position.

A short, slower guy like Flowers still played well in a press scheme after Herm's Cover 2 left town. He was a solid tackler and surprising press player.

We'd all love a blazing fast CB who could house it but it's not a must. In fact, it's less of a must with our pass rush...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Isn't Gaines our slot/nickel CB?

And with Gaines back there I like having a more physical duo on the outside...

More and more I expect that teams are going to be creative with their WRs and try to force matchup problems by putting conventional slot WRs all throughout the formation.

I don't think you can just expect that your outside corners won't have to deal with the DATs of the world. Even a guy like Donnie Avery would strike me as someone that Rowe might struggle with. Someone that can give him a quick deke to get inside him and then run away from him as he struggles with his hip-turn and acceleration.

The NFL is a harsh world - if you have a clear weakness, teams will do everything they can to exploit it. If a guy like Rowe is struggling with quick WRs, teams will try to create a matchup that puts their waterbug matched up with him.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

My eyes agree with you here but the stopwatch doesn't.

It's dangerous to put too much faith in the underwear olympics, but Rowe timed in the top 1/3 for his 40 time and in the top 15% for his 3 cone and 20 yrd shuttle times. His broad jump was in the top 1/4 and his vertical jump in the top 20% as well. His Bench was top 20%.

So his quickness numbers are very good (SS and 3-cone) and his long speed is above average (40). His explosion appears to be pretty good based on his broad and vertical jumps and his bench was very good. At 6'1 with 31 inch arms he's going to have a wider coverage radius than most corners and at 200+ lbs he's going to be solid in run-support.

Physically the guy really does nail it, or at least he did at the combine. But he's one of those guys that I just don't quite see it on the tape. Again, it's possible I'm just not being fair to him because he's a converted safety so I expect to see a guy with less athletic ability. I will concede that I have no answer for the disconnect between what I see and what the stopwatch seems to show.

I worry about the TY Hilton's of the world.

They just start running crossing routes/stop and go's and we just don't have the speed to keep up with them.

[O.city]

I still like peters at corner