2017 Record Predications

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Division's too good to sweep again. I'd guess 10-6 and another quick playoff exit.

What? Two rookie head coaches, no Wade Phillips and a leaky Raiders defense makes this division too good?

I think it's unlikely that they sweep but not because of the other teams, but due to the odds.

Going 17-1 in the division would be quite an accomplishment.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

What? Two rookie head coaches, no Wade Phillips and a leaky Raiders defense makes this division too good?

I think it's unlikely that they sweep but not because of the other teams, but due to the odds.

Going 17-1 in the division would be quite an accomplishment.

Took two overtime wins to sweep last year. I just don't think it's going to be that easy.

I don't disagree with the comment about the rest of the division but I also don't see any way where we're going to be notably better than last year. Maybe pass rush, with a hopefully healthy Houston and a deeper d-line.

I just don't see the gap as being all that wide. If there's even a gap at all.

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Took two overtime wins to sweep last year. I just don't think it's going to be that easy.

I don't disagree with the comment about the rest of the division but I also don't see any way where we're going to be notably better than last year. Maybe pass rush, with a hopefully healthy Houston and a deeper d-line.

I just don't see the gap as being all that wide. If there's even a gap at all.

Then go 0-1... Such an accomplishment...

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Took two overtime wins to sweep last year. I just don't think it's going to be that easy.

I don't disagree with the comment about the rest of the division but I also don't see any way where we're going to be notably better than last year. Maybe pass rush, with a hopefully healthy Houston and a deeper d-line.

I just don't see the gap as being all that wide. If there's even a gap at all.

A healthy Justin Houston makes an enormous difference. Logan over Poe, Chris Jones year 2, Ty Hill year 2, Berry 3 years removed from cancer, much more offensive and defensive line depth, etc.

I see a huge gap between Denver and the Chiefs and a big gap between the Chargers, who will play in a 30,000 seat stadium, more than 50% of which will be filled by opposing fans.

Philip Rivers 150 mile daily round trip from his San Diego home to Costa Mesa won't benefit them, either.

That said, 17-1 would be ridiculous. Even the Patriots lose a divisional game or two each year.

[penbrook]

12-4. We beat the Packers in the super bowl after Smith gets injured in the first quarter and Money Mahomes comes in and leads us to victory 24-10

[KChiefs1]

I think 11-5 with a loss vs the Pats in the AFC championship game.

[bigjosh]

Thu, Sep 7 @ Patriots L
Sun, Sep 17 vs Eagles W
Sun, Sep 24 @ Chargers W
Mon, Oct 2 vs Redskins L
Sun, Oct 8 @ Texans W
Sun, Oct 15 vs Steelers L
Thu, Oct 19 @ Raiders L
Mon, Oct 30 vs Broncos W
Sun, Nov 5 @ Cowboys L
BYE (AFTER STARTING 4-5 THEY REPLACE OUR GAME MANAGER AT THE BYE)
Sun, Nov 19 @ Giants L
Sun, Nov 26 vs Bills W
Sun, Dec 3 @ Jets W
Sun, Dec 10 vs Raiders W
Sat, Dec 16 vs Chargers W
Sun, Dec 24 vs Dolphins W
Sun, Dec 31 @ Broncos W

[penbrook]

I think Smitty is going to surprise a lot of people Thursday

[FlaChief58]

11-5 with a divisional round loss.

ASS11 get's a one way ticket out of town the next day

[oldman]

12-4, Championship loss. The Pats (and NFL) will figure out some way to make this Brady's greatest season EVAH by whatever means necessary.

[Bronco_buster2]

10-6 Wildcard loss.

I'm afraid lack of O-line depth and health/inconsistency in pass rush (which exploits the depth in defensive backfield) bites us in the playoffs.

[Molitoth]

With that schedule, there is no reason they shouldn't go 10-6 or 11-5 if the defense is anything like it has been under Sutton.

[crayzkirk]

Maybe I've been watching too many Royals games and am slightly depressed... I have the Chiefs going 7-9. I know that Houston and Berry haven't played much and that Andy hasn't pulled out the play book, I just have a feeling that the special teams and defense aren't going to bail the team out a few times, plus the real lack of receiving corp and no experienced running back. I see the Chiefs going 3-3 in the division, losing to NE, PIT, DAL, NYG, HOU and one of NYJ, MIA or BUF.

I hope I am wrong...

[KChiefs1]

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/...happen-in-2017

It’s time to predict the Kansas City Chiefs 2017 season record. I have predicted the Chiefs record for the past three seasons.

Don’t believe me? Here’s the proof:

2014
2015
2016


Excuse me while I pat myself on the back (and while I ignore the luck factor).

It’s kind of fun going back in time and reading the comments and seeing everyone’s predictions over the years. The ONLY reason this prediction has worked is because Alex Smith and Andy Reid are so consistent. Really it’s absurd how consistent they are over the course of an entire season.

Methodology:

We’re going to use the same methodology for predicting the Chiefs record as we have in the past few seasons. Essentially we’ll be taking Andy Reid’s record in Kansas City vs non-playoff and playoff teams and then use those numbers to predict the Chiefs record.

To start, I need to rank each team on the Chiefs schedule as a for sure playoff team, a possible playoff team, and a team that most likely won’t make the playoffs.

Chiefs 2017 Schedule:
TEAM: PLAYOFFS
Patriots Yes
Eagles Maybe
Chargers. Maybe
Redskins. Maybe
Texans Maybe
SteelersYes
Raiders Maybe
BroncosMaybe
CowboysMaybe
Giants Maybe
Bills No
Jets No
Raiders Maybe
ChargersMaybe
DolphinsNo
BroncosMaybe


This is a strange season for the Chiefs. There are a large number of teams on the schedule who can potentially make the playoffs. From this count we have:

Maybe: 11
No: 3
Yes: 2
There’s a problem with these though....

Fixing Some Numbers:

The Maybe teams are a big problem, here’s why: The Chiefs play four NFC East teams all who are “Maybe.” There won’t be four NFC East teams in the playoffs. In fact I’d argue there could be at most two. To correct this I’ll alter the NFC East teams to include one Yes, one Maybe, and two No. This changes our totals to:

Maybe: 8
No: 5
Yes: 3
Moving on to the AFC teams, we have a problem with the AFC West. I would argue two teams from the AFC West are likely to make the playoffs given the AFC West being a strong division over the past two years. So I’ll change the three AFC West Maybe teams to one Yes, one Maybe, and one No.

This changes our overall totals to:

Maybe: 6
No: 6
Yes: 4
We’ll use these numbers going forward.

Andy Reid vs Playoff and Non-Playoff Teams:

The next step is to look at how Andy Reid has performed vs playoff and non-playoff teams in Kansas City. Typically I take the numbers over the entirety of Reid’s career, but since he has a decent body of work in KC I feel comfortable using his numbers with the Chiefs only.


The Chiefs have consistently gotten better vs playoff teams during Andy Reid’s time in Kansas City. This leads us to the first natural question: Will the Chiefs continue to improve against playoff teams?

Going 0.600 against playoff teams last year was a huge accomplishment and I honestly doubt the Chiefs can continue at this clip. However, I do believe it’s fair to estimate that the Chiefs will go 0.500 against playoff teams in 2017.

I picked 0.500 because I don’t think 0.600 is quite feasible, and given some noise from the offseason the Chiefs may take a small step back against top competition.

Against non-playoff teams, Andy Reid has been a monster in Kansas City. The Chiefs have a record of 34-6 against non-playoff teams with Andy Reid as their head coach. That’s a win percentage of 0.850.

The Prediction....

For this prediction we have to do something with the Maybe teams from above. Since there are six Maybe teams and they are a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs we should split them in two. Now we have nine non-playoff teams and seven playoff teams in the Chiefs schedule this year.

Using the win percentages from previous years we can do a little math and come up with our prediction....

9 * (0.850) + 7 * (0.500) = 11.15

There you have it, the Chiefs will go 11-5 in 2017.

Go ahead and put your money down in Vegas. Just kidding, please don’t, I don’t want to be responsible for that (unless you win).

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/...happen-in-2017

It’s time to predict the Kansas City Chiefs 2017 season record. I have predicted the Chiefs record for the past three seasons.

Don’t believe me? Here’s the proof:

2014
2015
2016


Excuse me while I pat myself on the back (and while I ignore the luck factor).

It’s kind of fun going back in time and reading the comments and seeing everyone’s predictions over the years. The ONLY reason this prediction has worked is because Alex Smith and Andy Reid are so consistent. Really it’s absurd how consistent they are over the course of an entire season.

Methodology:

We’re going to use the same methodology for predicting the Chiefs record as we have in the past few seasons. Essentially we’ll be taking Andy Reid’s record in Kansas City vs non-playoff and playoff teams and then use those numbers to predict the Chiefs record.

To start, I need to rank each team on the Chiefs schedule as a for sure playoff team, a possible playoff team, and a team that most likely won’t make the playoffs.

Chiefs 2017 Schedule:
TEAM: PLAYOFFS
Patriots Yes
Eagles Maybe
Chargers. Maybe
Redskins. Maybe
Texans Maybe
SteelersYes
Raiders Maybe
BroncosMaybe
CowboysMaybe
Giants Maybe
Bills No
Jets No
Raiders Maybe
ChargersMaybe
DolphinsNo
BroncosMaybe


This is a strange season for the Chiefs. There are a large number of teams on the schedule who can potentially make the playoffs. From this count we have:

Maybe: 11
No: 3
Yes: 2
There’s a problem with these though....

Fixing Some Numbers:

The Maybe teams are a big problem, here’s why: The Chiefs play four NFC East teams all who are “Maybe.” There won’t be four NFC East teams in the playoffs. In fact I’d argue there could be at most two. To correct this I’ll alter the NFC East teams to include one Yes, one Maybe, and two No. This changes our totals to:

Maybe: 8
No: 5
Yes: 3
Moving on to the AFC teams, we have a problem with the AFC West. I would argue two teams from the AFC West are likely to make the playoffs given the AFC West being a strong division over the past two years. So I’ll change the three AFC West Maybe teams to one Yes, one Maybe, and one No.

This changes our overall totals to:

Maybe: 6
No: 6
Yes: 4
We’ll use these numbers going forward.

Andy Reid vs Playoff and Non-Playoff Teams:

The next step is to look at how Andy Reid has performed vs playoff and non-playoff teams in Kansas City. Typically I take the numbers over the entirety of Reid’s career, but since he has a decent body of work in KC I feel comfortable using his numbers with the Chiefs only.


The Chiefs have consistently gotten better vs playoff teams during Andy Reid’s time in Kansas City. This leads us to the first natural question: Will the Chiefs continue to improve against playoff teams?

Going 0.600 against playoff teams last year was a huge accomplishment and I honestly doubt the Chiefs can continue at this clip. However, I do believe it’s fair to estimate that the Chiefs will go 0.500 against playoff teams in 2017.

I picked 0.500 because I don’t think 0.600 is quite feasible, and given some noise from the offseason the Chiefs may take a small step back against top competition.

Against non-playoff teams, Andy Reid has been a monster in Kansas City. The Chiefs have a record of 34-6 against non-playoff teams with Andy Reid as their head coach. That’s a win percentage of 0.850.

The Prediction....

For this prediction we have to do something with the Maybe teams from above. Since there are six Maybe teams and they are a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs we should split them in two. Now we have nine non-playoff teams and seven playoff teams in the Chiefs schedule this year.

Using the win percentages from previous years we can do a little math and come up with our prediction....

9 * (0.850) + 7 * (0.500) = 11.15

There you have it, the Chiefs will go 11-5 in 2017.

Go ahead and put your money down in Vegas. Just kidding, please don’t, I don’t want to be responsible for that (unless you win).

Interesting