Kelce career trajectory vs. Gonzalez

[dmahurin]

Monday Night will be Travis Kelce’s 75th career regular season game. Here’s how his numbers compare to Tony Gonzalez’s first 75 games;

Tony G: 319 rec, 3,745 yards, 27 TDs.

Travis Kelce: 364 rec, 4,687 yards, 28 TDs.

Does Kelce stand a chance of continuing that pace?

[Chief_For_Life58]

Kelce runs top violently. He'll get hurt. Won't have the longevity 30 whatever year career TG had

[Strongside]

If he keeps this pace up, he's easily a first-ballot HOF'er

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

Also Tony G had the best diet workout and a good mind. Kelce has dialed back the stupid shit, but I can see him smashing fast food and drinking whiskey

Diet of champions

[dlphg9]

Kelce has been extremely healthy besides missing his first season. Other than that he hasn't missed a game. But holy shit, I didn't realize how ****ing healthy Gonzalez was, only missed 2 games in 17 years. That is amazing.

So far Travis Kelce is averaging 1027 yds and 6.14 tds a season
Tony Gonzalez averaged 896 and 6.57 tds

It would take Kelce around 10 more years at this pace to catch Tony Gs numbers. I'd be willing to bet Kelce picks up the pace significantly. This year he should get close to 1300 yards. So after this year he will have about 10000 yards to go. So after this year if everything goes as planned he will need close to 8 seasons of 1300 yards. He will be 37 in 8 years, so I say chances of him passing Tony are extremely low. He probably has 3 or 4 more elite years if he continues to stay healthy.

So even though he most likely won't catch Tony's career yds, still he has a very good shot at being top 5 in yards for a TE. Hell he has a pretty good chance at getting to number 3. If Gates continues to play and rack up 250-300 yards seasons for a few years it'd make it really tough though. Gates is at 11729 rec yds and let's he adds another 150 yds to his yardage this year which is 221, that puts him at 11879. We will say Kelce hits 1300 yds this year, so after this year he would be at 5200. Gates probably retires this year so Kelce is 6680 yards away from passing him. If he can average 1250 yards over the next 4 years (33 years old) then all he has to do is average 560 yards over his last 3 years. He could possibly pass Witten as well, but that's a little tougher. If he could average 1300 yards over the next 4 years, then all he needs to do is get 683 yards each year for 3 years and retire when he is 36. We would then have the top 2 TEs in NFL history.

I know it all depends on if he can stay healthy. It seems all of the best tight ends continued to produce until they decided to hang them up, with Gates being the exception. The guy has been trash since 2015 and has averaged 34 yards a game. If Kelce is able to get to the top 5 in yds by a tight end, then I'd say he may be the best tight end to ever play the game, but for sure would be number 2. He entered the league pretty old (24) and missed his entire first year due to injury, so he didn't even get started until he was 25. Look at the ages of the other guys when they got into the league;

Tony G. - 21 played in all 16 games and then started in every game the next year.

Jason Witten - 21

Antonio Gates - 23

Shannon Sharpe - 22

Gronkowski - 21

Give Kelce 3 more seasons and he would probably have an additional 2000-2500 yards. Yes I realize that this is all what ifs, but it's fun to think about how big of a star Kelce would be if he had 3 extra years under his belt. No one would have to add in that bullshit line that he's the best TE in football because Gronks always hurt.

So for what it's worth, which is probably nothing, I think Kelce is the most talented TE to ever play the position, but Tony (at this moment) is the GOAT. If Kelce can produce like I outlined above then the argument can be made that Kelce replace Tony as the great to play the position. Only time will tell. I'm just happy that he is ours until 2021 for sure and hopefully if he stays on this trajectory we extend him 4 or 5 more years. I doubt he ever whines about being a Chief and demands a trade. I bet he gets more titles than Tony.

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

TG was 25 when he played his 75th game and just entering his prime. Kelce is 29 and closer to end of his than the beginning.

I don't imagine it will be close. Kelce needs to not only stay as healthy and age as gracefully, he'll need to be significantly more productive to make up for being 4 years behind in age.

Kelce will have a bunch of bonus playoff games, though, and a significantly better QB. Maybe not enough to surpass Tony's career numbers, but perhaps his Chiefs career numbers.

[Hammock Parties]

Tony was never that fast, he was always extremely agile though and knew how to get open.

We will see how Kelce fairs as he ages. If he ages like Gonzalez he's going to the HOF.

[lawrenceRaider]

Tony G started his career off somewhat slowly before coming on. He is the GOAT TE in my mind. Kelce also benefits from a much pass happier NFL, and Kelce is the best TE in the NFL right now.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by dmahurin

Monday Night will be Travis Kelce’s 75th career regular season game. Here’s how his numbers compare to Tony Gonzalez’s first 75 games;

Tony G: 319 rec, 3,745 yards, 27 TDs.

Travis Kelce: 364 rec, 4,687 yards, 28 TDs.

Does Kelce stand a chance of continuing that pace?

Maybe the pace, but he won't outlast Gonzalez. He's not built the same way and with his playing style seems more susceptible to injuries.

Also, Gonzo had acquired those above numbers playing in his age 25 season, and he played in all 16 games his rookie year, but never started once. He wasn't really a featured part of the offense until his 3rd year in the league.

Kelce is in his age 29 season currently, and he missed basically his entire rookie year due to injury. He started 11 of 16 games his second year with the Chiefs and was immediately a featured part of the offense (862 yards).

Travis will never play long enough to catch Tony stat wise, considering he's already 4 years behind where Gonzo was at this point. Hell, he may not even be a Chief past his current contract (we'll see how he ages . . . .), but I'll predict he'll have a very nice shiny piece of jewelry that TG never got to put on . . . . .

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Kielce has more playoff victories than Tony.

Not true. Tony had one with Atlanta.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

TG was 25 when he played his 75th game and just entering his prime. Kelce is 29 and closer to end of his than the beginning.

I think people forget that Kelce missed his first season do to the knee injury he had in college, but damn that is a huge difference in age for the same number of games.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi

Cassel never played with Gonzalez, great insight though.

DERP, I am so far in QB heaven it seems like Cassel last played for KC 15 years ago.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by sedated

I think people forget that Kelce missed his first season do to the knee injury he had in college, but damn that is a huge difference in age for the same number of games.

Right (side note - the knee injury was in camp; bone bruise requiring micro-fracture surgery in October).

If Kelce ages like Tony did, he'll still make the HoF, but I very much doubt he catches TG. By the end of his age 28 season, TG had 570 receptions for 6900 yards and 54 touchdowns. Kelce was at 307 receptions for 3900 yards and 22 TDs.

Folks, that's 3 seasons of productivity that Kelce will have to make up and he'll have to somehow do it in his 30s. Meanwhile, TG aged as well into his 30s as any player you'll ever see. I mean the dude was still putting up 90 catch, 900+ yard seasons at 36. Kelce, and any NFL player for that matter, would be elated to still be playing at 36 and Tony was an NFL All-Pro.

THAT's the bar he has to clear. He not only has to age just as well as a guy who probably sets the standard for aging well, he has to do it significantly BETTER because he has 3,000 yards, nearly 300 catches and 30+ TDs to make up to catch him.

I mean there's really no chance in hell, fellas. Tony Gonzalez was an NFL All-Pro at an age that Kelce was was finally getting his first season as a starter...in college.

[O.city]

Yeah, Kelce is no young spring chicken at this point. We'll see how he ages but it's a monster uphill climb.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, Kelce is no young spring chicken at this point. We'll see how he ages but it's a monster uphill climb.

Basically another 196 games or 12 full seasons.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Basically another 196 games or 12 full seasons.

He'd have to be about 40% more productive over the next 8 years or so than the most productive 'late career' TE in NFL history.

Someday we may be able to have an interesting argument over who had the best 10 year stretch or who had the best Chiefs career, but that's about it and even that's gonna require several more elite seasons from Kelce.

Time has made DT's legend grow (perhaps it was death), it seems to have had the opposite effect on TG's. There's nobody in the league that's gonna be catching that guy and I don't suspect we'll see one anytime soon.