***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

My aunt and uncle got sent home so finally some good news on our front.

But now we have some other close family members that tested positive. So....shit.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

My aunt and uncle got sent home so finally some good news on our front.

But now we have some other close family members that tested positive. So....shit.

Focus on the positive for a while..you've had enough negative

[petegz28]

Italy has now ordered mask wearing outdoors. I seem to recall a couple months ago that lady doctor on the task force coming to Kansas and saying we need to be more like Italy. Apparently they aren't doing so hot.

Every time we hear "we need to be like that country", that country ends up re-locking down or spiking or whatever.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by O.city

#BreakingNews: Lilly has submitted a request for Emergency Use Authorization for one of our potential #COVID19 antibody treatments to @US_FDA. Learn more about the supporting data and progress of our potential combination antibody therapy treatment: https://t.co/caWgR4YHzz pic.twitter.com/rpU3fmIif6

— Eli Lilly and Company (@LillyPad) October 7, 2020

Risk reduction of 84%. Yeah, this is the real deal.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Risk reduction of 84%. Yeah, this is the real deal.

Absolutely. But how quickly can they scale up and make the treatments available?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

Absolutely. But how quickly can they scale up and make the treatments available?

Fast. If they want to. Really fast.

I don't want problems, I want solutions.

[TLO]

I'm getting even more concerned as our hospital is now steamrolling towards capacity. I wish I knew what the contingency plan is, but like most things, it's very hush hush.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Fast. If they want to. Really fast.

I don't want problems, I want solutions.

I like it.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Italy has now ordered mask wearing outdoors. I seem to recall a couple months ago that lady doctor on the task force coming to Kansas and saying we need to be more like Italy. Apparently they aren't doing so hot.

Every time we hear "we need to be like that country", that country ends up re-locking down or spiking or whatever.

But Sweden.....

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

Rolling 7 day average for deaths since beginning of August is less than 3.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

But Sweden.....

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

Rolling 7 day average for deaths since beginning of August is less than 3.

Their cases are going back up a tick, which isn't ideal.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Risk reduction of 84%. Yeah, this is the real deal.

That is excellent news. I was reading through their trial info and I am wondering if there is a specific timing on when this gets administrated? They were only taking people in their trials with a covid positive test 3 days or sooner with symptoms.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

There's a lot of unspecified information behind that data. Remember that this is a press release and not a clinical trial. A relative risk reduction of 84% (which is a composite endpoint--both hospitalization and ER visit) is highly unlikely to have a p-value of 0.049. If it drove down hospitalizations that much, the p-value should be much lower, in line with what they list in viral clearance and symptom changes.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by O.city

Fast. If they want to. Really fast.

I don't want problems, I want solutions.

I saw people in that thread bitching about cost?

[Discuss Thrower]

An estimated 750 million, or 10 per cent of the world’s population, have been infected by Covid-19, World Health Organisation (WHO) official Dr Mike Ryan has said.

Yet the IFR is 0.7%?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

An estimated 750 million, or 10 per cent of the world’s population, have been infected by Covid-19, World Health Organisation (WHO) official Dr Mike Ryan has said.

Yet the IFR is 0.7%?

That would put the IFR at ~.14% or right around seasonal flu IFR.

That seems odd. Globally, we've already lost 1,058,000 people to COVID-19. A really bad flu year results in ~500,000 dead.