***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

(Lowers head and stares at floor)

Guys, antibodies will always and were always going to wane. It takes energy and resources to continue to make them, our bodies aren't in the mode to waste either of those. This is why we have memory B and T cells.

[O.city]

We'll see if it holds, but our county numbers are going down pretty nicely. Hospitalizations aren't going down as quick, but it's looking like alot of that is from the rural areas.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by O.city

We'll see if it holds, but our county numbers are going down pretty nicely. Hospitalizations aren't going down as quick, but it's looking like alot of that is from the rural areas.

It's really just whack-a-mole until everyone gets it

[O.city]

Originally Posted by loochy

It's really just whack-a-mole until everyone gets it

At this point, probably so.

It's looking like it may be making it's way thru Springfield metro area pretty quickly or already has, hopefully. We'll see. Our percent positive rate is going down under 10 so theoretically that would be good.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

(Lowers head and stares at floor)

Guys, antibodies will always and were always going to wane. It takes energy and resources to continue to make them, our bodies aren't in the mode to waste either of those. This is why we have memory B and T cells.

Yeah that is why I quoted that.

Although immunity to the novel coronavirus is a complex and murky area, and may be assisted by T cells, as well as B cells that can stimulate the quick production of antibodies following re-exposure to the virus, the researchers said the experience of other coronaviruses suggested immunity might not be enduring.

There was no change in the levels of antibodies seen in healthcare workers, possibly due to repeated exposure to the virus.

[O.city]

Previous infection may not lead to long term sterilizing immunity. It likely will for a year or two and even after, will likely lead to a more mild infection. Similar to the common cold.

[tooge]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/...835209217?s=21

Huge drop in mortality across all age groups. Great news

the virus has attenuated. That's been confirmed by several studies. In fact, it's mutation that led to it's attenuation is almost identical to the mutation of Sars1 that basically caused it to "go away." This information about deaths decreasing is not surprising. Part of it is certainly because providers are better at treating it, but IMO, most of it is the fact that the virus has attenuated. We should se this trend continue, all while case numbers rise, as the attenuated version of the virus out competes the non attenuated version for hosts. This happens quickly because people that are less symptomatic or asymptomatic (have the attenuated version) aren't self isolating and those with symptoms generally are.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by tooge

the virus has attenuated. That's been confirmed by several studies. In fact, it's mutation that led to it's attenuation is almost identical to the mutation of Sars1 that basically caused it to "go away." This information about deaths decreasing is not surprising. Part of it is certainly because providers are better at treating it, but IMO, most of it is the fact that the virus has attenuated. We should se this trend continue, all while case numbers rise, as the attenuated version of the virus out competes the non attenuated version for hosts. This happens quickly because people that are less symptomatic or asymptomatic (have the attenuated version) aren't self isolating and those with symptoms generally are.

In evolutionary terms and timeline, thats pretty quick for it to mutated that quickly to something that much less lethal no?

I did read it had some mutations in the spike protein that had led to more infectious issues.

I'm curious with you being in the same field as me, are we considered "front line workers" when it comes to vaccinations ?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Source

For US adults between the ages of 25-44, C-19 deaths account for roughly 17% of 14,155 excess deaths which, itself, is roughly 25% greater in amount compared to 2019. The paper highlights C-19 has an almost identical kill count in this age group (which, at least in the 2020 data, does not encompass the entire USA) to overdosing on opioids in 2019.

They are focusing in on small areas which have a highly variable rate of mortality regardless of the reason.

Current Covid & non-covid death statistics.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#AgeAndSex

1-4 yrs old 25 covid, 12,832 deaths from all causes
5-14 yrs old 39 covid, 3,814 deaths from all causes
15-24 yrs old 383 covid, 24,621 deaths from all causes
25-34 yrs old 1,628 covid, 50,30 deaths from all causes
35-44 yrs old 4,206 covid, 71,141 deaths from all causes

Also - death for 25-44 yr olds pre-covid https://www.verywellhealth.com/top-c...-25-44-2223958

Also for a baseline, see how the ages performed against the flu in 2018 - 2019. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
5-17 yrs, 211 deaths from flu, 21,012 hospitalizations from flu
18-49 yrs, 2,450 deaths from flu, 66,869 hospitalizations from flu
50-64 yrs, 5,676 deaths from flu, 97,967 hospitalizations from flu
65 yrs+, 25,555 deaths from flu, 279,384 hospitalizations from flu

[tooge]

Originally Posted by O.city

In evolutionary terms and timeline, thats pretty quick for it to mutated that quickly to something that much less lethal no?

I did read it had some mutations in the spike protein that had led to more infectious issues.

I'm curious with you being in the same field as me, are we considered "front line workers" when it comes to vaccinations ?

I consider us front line workers. I mean, we're 18 inches from peoples face all day and seeing people that must be seen or could end up in an ER, so yeah.
As far as mutations with Covid 19 go, check out the lance article below.
This is just one of many articles confirming that this mutation has indeed occured.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...757-8/fulltext

[tooge]

Originally Posted by O.city

In evolutionary terms and timeline, thats pretty quick for it to mutated that quickly to something that much less lethal no?

I did read it had some mutations in the spike protein that had led to more infectious issues.

I'm curious with you being in the same field as me, are we considered "front line workers" when it comes to vaccinations ?

Also, it's not pretty quick for a virus at all. They mutate all the time, and generally, they become attenuated through those mutations and the resulting spread due to isolation of those with non attenuated versions of it.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by tooge

Also, it's not pretty quick for a virus at all. They mutate all the time, and generally, they become attenuated through those mutations and the resulting spread due to isolation of those with non attenuated versions of it.

Influenza viruses do, I didn't think the normal coronavirus did as quickly. I'm all for it if it did and continues to though.

I had read that article before and kinda forgot about it, thanks for posting.

[O.city]

We expect to have our safety data in the third week of November and the manufacturing process data before that date. Assuming positive data we will apply for EUA in the US soon after the safety milestone is achieved. https://t.co/QK9QcutNzx

— AlbertBourla (@AlbertBourla) October 27, 2020

Here's the Pfizer CEO.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by tooge

the virus has attenuated. That's been confirmed by several studies. In fact, it's mutation that led to it's attenuation is almost identical to the mutation of Sars1 that basically caused it to "go away." This information about deaths decreasing is not surprising. Part of it is certainly because providers are better at treating it, but IMO, most of it is the fact that the virus has attenuated. We should se this trend continue, all while case numbers rise, as the attenuated version of the virus out competes the non attenuated version for hosts. This happens quickly because people that are less symptomatic or asymptomatic (have the attenuated version) aren't self isolating and those with symptoms generally are.

It's possible that virus has attenuated that much. But it also could be some combination of warmer weather, masks leading to lower initial viral load, older/at-risk people isolating better, and better treatments.

I know two ICU doctors on another forum who say it's like night and day how they treat people now vs. back in April - when they put people on vents right away, and lost a ton of people due to not proactively treating for potential blood clots in the lungs.

[O.city]

It's taking back off in Sweden. So not ideal.