***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

In regards to lock downs what do people consider a lock down because various cities and possibly states are now shutting down bars, restaurants, and some are shutting down all indoor activities.

That's a lock down. Anytime you start shutting down businesses you are locking down. Shutting down indoor activities is still a lockdown just a milder version.

[petegz28]

KC area bed availability is still looking good. ICU beds are at 17%. Ventilator availability is good.

[MahomesMagic]

6. Spectrum bias


When a diagnostic test is studied in one setting – for example, in hospitals – and not in the intended population for which it is used – the community – problems with interpreting the results occur. Mass testing has taken off and the limitations of widely-used tests such as PCR have been ignored. PCR tests on their own cannot distinguish whether you are actively infected and infectious or whether you are recovering from the disease and simply have dead particles of Covid in your system. Up to a year ago a handful of laboratories were doing PCR – a highly delicate and specialised technique, vulnerable to contamination. The enormous expansion of testing in the community has meant procedures and training have been rushed through. Warnings by bodies such as the College of American Pathologists of the problems of using different uncalibrated PCR kits have been ignored. The detection of ‘cases’ in the community tell us little (apart from driving lockdowns). How many are serious; how many are contagious? No one knows.

Prof Carl Heneghan & Tom Jefferson

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ovid-19-biases

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

KC area bed availability is still looking good. ICU beds are at 17%. Ventilator availability is good.

Not doing well here in St. Joe. Our hospital census went down a bit today though.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's a lock down. Anytime you start shutting down businesses you are locking down. Shutting down indoor activities is still a lockdown just a milder version.

I think I view a lock down as a stay at home order + shutting down businesses but that is neither here nor there.

Nevada for example their governor just issued a voluntary stay at home order for 2 weeks I am sure that will work well.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I think I view a lock down as a stay at home order + shutting down businesses but that is neither here nor there.

Nevada for example their governor just issued a voluntary stay at home order for 2 weeks I am sure that will work well.

When you start shutting down businesses you are essentially enacting a stay at home order. WTF is a "voluntary stay at home order"? If you want to stay home then stay home. Why does that need an order?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Last time we saw 2k+ deaths in a day was May 7th. We went that entire 2nd wave without hitting 2k. Let's hope it stays that way.

Unless hospitalizations start turning the curve we’re probably gonna get back there

Hopefully not

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Not doing well here in St. Joe. Our hospital census went down a bit today though.

Area ICU is not quite half of what it usually is. That's the only flag at the moment.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Unless hospitalizations start turning the curve we’re probably gonna get back there

Hopefully not

We might. But we also have to look at how many cases it is taking to get there vs. how many it took in the past.

I guess I am trying to be positive about it taking more and more cases to get deaths to rise.

[O.city]

Unless shit just goes off the rails there’s no shut down

Do what’s best for your own risk tolerance and take care of yourself. That’s all we can do at this point

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We might. But we also have to look at how many cases it is taking to get there vs. how many it took in the past.

I guess I am trying to be positive about it taking more and more cases to get deaths to rise.

We only know the cases were catching though as testing has gone up. Had we been testing at this level back then who knows what cases would have been

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

We only know the cases were catching though as testing has gone up. Had we been testing at this level back then who knows what cases would have been

The true number of infections would probably blow our minds.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

We only know the cases were catching though as testing has gone up. Had we been testing at this level back then who knows what cases would have been

Agreed but that would also mean the fatality rate is less than we think then. Again I am just fishing for postives.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Unless shit just goes off the rails there’s no shut down

Do what’s best for your own risk tolerance and take care of yourself. That’s all we can do at this point

Yep and it has pretty much been like that the entire time. Unless hospitals start saying people are dying in the halls then forge ahead.

[O.city]

If it gets to that point you’ll have to go back to hard lockdowns I guess I dunno what you do at that point