***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Biden Covid Advisor is suggesting a 4-6 week lockdown nationwide. Don't think that carries much weight at the moment but something to be aware of.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Biden Covid Advisor is suggesting a 4-6 week lockdown nationwide. Don't think that carries much weight at the moment but something to be aware of.

So stupid

[Pasta Little Brioni]

I just don't see how they can justify allowing thousands crammed into a big box retail... Most buying non necessities....while shutting down other businesses. It's absolutely ****ing corrupt.

Wearing that piece of shit mask while hundreds are paying no respect to your personal space isn't doing a lick of good...then you take it home and infect your family. Meanwhile small businesses collapse even though you have nowhere near the exposure.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

So stupid

Politics aside I don't know that his recommendation would be acted upon unles Trump decides to do it which I highly doubt. But it might give fuel to governors to start enacting more lock downs.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

I just don't see how they can justify allowing thousands crammed into a big box retail... Most buying non necessities....then shutting down other businesses. It's absolutely ****ing corrupt.

I have never understood that as well. Sometimes decisions get made for the sake of saying "we're doing something about it" without a lot of foresight on the impact of what they are actually doing.

We are in a tough, tough spot right now and really it's a tough it out phase. Governors need to quit playing politics about the vaccine and step up to do wahtever they can to assist and hopefully we start figuring out more treatments for those who are infected.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I have never understood that as well. Sometimes decisions get made for the sake of saying "we're doing something about it" without a lot of foresight on the impact of what they are actually doing.

We are in a tough, tough spot right now and really it's a tough it out phase. Governors need to quit playing politics about the vaccine and step up to do wahtever they can to assist and hopefully we start figuring out more treatments for those who are infected.

Not to go full Op...It's speeding up everything to be ran by a big corporation. We are growing closer to real life Idiocracy by the day.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I am really starting to question the mask thing. The CDC came out today and said that now masks protect the wearer where as before it was to protect others from the wearer as it were.

More people are wearing masks now than ever yet cases are going through the roof. Something just isn't adding up. We keep hearing "wear your masks". I can't go anywhere save very few places where everyone doesn't have a mask on yet cases are going up.

I am not saying masks don't have a place but is it possible that they just aren't working very well?

I would imagine that science is involved, perhaps even a study, and the results led them to provide an update. That's how science works.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

I would imagine that science is involved, perhaps even a study, and the results led them to provide an update. That's how science works.

Yeah how's that working out? NM it's rhetorical....not dealing with you today.

[petegz28]

Detroit schools going full remote.....

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Biden Covid Advisor is suggesting a 4-6 week lockdown nationwide. Don't think that carries much weight at the moment but something to be aware of.

Let's hope things look better at the end of January and that advice is reevaluated assuming Biden is sworn in. Not that a president can do that anyways.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yeah how's that working out? NM it's rhetorical....not dealing with you today.

If people aren't wearing masks, not very well, as we are seeing.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The irony...all summer long we have heard "we need to be like Europe". Now Europe is locking down and people are saying "well, they never really enforced things like masks in Europe".

Here's the take. The only safe thing you can do is stay in your house, period. Don't go anywhere. Don't associate with anyone. More people are wearing masks around the globe than ever in history yet cases are shooting up faster than ever.

We keep hearing that younger people are "super spreaders" even though there a lot of studies that say quite the opposite. Especially young children.

You can wear a mask. You can wash your hands. You can socially distance. But that is all proving at this point anyway to have a minimal though better than nothing impact.

There isn't an easy answer and as many medical professionals warned "just wear a mask" is not the answer. I think it's propagated a safe feeling that was false. The media does not help at all but I won't get into that.

The other side of it is you cannot shut down the economy again. I think assignment of blame is getting placed in places that are convenient or otherwise easier to blame such as bars and restaurants. That may be the case in some parts of the country but not the case in others.

I may very well have gotten Covid from a restaurant or the gym. Then again I may have gotten it from the grocery store. We automatically rule out one because of "masks" when the reality may be that the mask does not help as much as we think.

I will say I was in the grocery store more than the gym or a restaurant in the prior week or so to my getting Covid.

Only thing i can see making a difference now is if you can get personal testing into homes where you can test everyday.

Or more ideally, just a vaccine. That and therapeutics to hold the death rate down are about all we can do.

[O.city]

Another thing was that they could have gotten good masks (n95 or equivalent) out to the public ASAP.

In the end, it's a highly contagious respiratory virus. Locking down will shut it down, but locking down isn't long term. And while getting it low and testing and tracing works well in theory, in real life, we see isn't theory.

[Donger]

For those who want to review the science:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...sars-cov2.html

Scientific Brief: Community Use of Cloth Masks to Control the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

Background

SARS-CoV-2 infection is transmitted predominately by respiratory droplets generated when people cough, sneeze, sing, talk, or breathe. CDC recommends community use of masks, specifically non-valved multi-layer cloth masks, to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Masks are primarily intended to reduce the emission of virus-laden droplets (“source control”), which is especially relevant for asymptomatic or presymptomatic infected wearers who feel well and may be unaware of their infectiousness to others, and who are estimated to account for more than 50% of transmissions.1,2 Masks also help reduce inhalation of these droplets by the wearer (“filtration for personal protection”). The community benefit of masking for SARS-CoV-2 control is due to the combination of these effects; individual prevention benefit increases with increasing numbers of people using masks consistently and correctly.

Source Control to Block Exhaled Virus

Multi-layer cloth masks block release of exhaled respiratory particles into the environment,3-6 along with the microorganisms these particles carry.7,8 Cloth masks not only effectively block most large droplets (i.e., 20-30 microns and larger)9 but they can also block the exhalation of fine droplets and particles (also often referred to as aerosols) smaller than 10 microns ;3,5 which increase in number with the volume of speech10-12 and specific types of phonation.13 Multi-layer cloth masks can both block up to 50-70% of these fine droplets and particles3,14 and limit the forward spread of those that are not captured.5,6,15,16 Upwards of 80% blockage has been achieved in human experiments that have measured blocking of all respiratory droplets,4 with cloth masks in some studies performing on par with surgical masks as barriers for source control.3,9,14

Filtration for Personal Protection

Studies demonstrate that cloth mask materials can also reduce wearers’ exposure to infectious droplets through filtration, including filtration of fine droplets and particles less than 10 microns. The relative filtration effectiveness of various masks has varied widely across studies, in large part due to variation in experimental design and particle sizes analyzed. Multiple layers of cloth with higher thread counts have demonstrated superior performance compared to single layers of cloth with lower thread counts, in some cases filtering nearly 50% of fine particles less than 1 micron .14,17-29 Some materials (e.g., polypropylene) may enhance filtering effectiveness by generating triboelectric charge (a form of static electricity) that enhances capture of charged particles18,30 while others (e.g., silk) may help repel moist droplets31 and reduce fabric wetting and thus maintain breathability and comfort.

Human Studies of Masking and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

Data regarding the “real-world” effectiveness of community masking are limited to observational and epidemiological studies.

• An investigation of a high-exposure event, in which 2 symptomatically ill hair stylists interacted for an average of 15 minutes with each of 139 clients during an 8-day period, found that none of the 67 clients who subsequently consented to an interview and testing developed infection. The stylists and all clients universally wore masks in the salon as required by local ordinance and company policy at the time.32
• In a study of 124 Beijing households with > 1 laboratory-confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, mask use by the index patient and family contacts before the index patient developed symptoms reduced secondary transmission within the households by 79%.33
• A retrospective case-control study from Thailand documented that, among more than 1,000 persons interviewed as part of contact tracing investigations, those who reported having always worn a mask during high-risk exposures experienced a greater than 70% reduced risk of acquiring infection compared with persons who did not wear masks under these circumstances.34
• A study of an outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an environment notable for congregate living quarters and close working environments, found that use of face coverings on-board was associated with a 70% reduced risk.35
• Investigations involving infected passengers aboard flights longer than 10 hours strongly suggest that masking prevented in-flight transmissions, as demonstrated by the absence of infection developing in other passengers and crew in the 14 days following exposure.36,37

Seven studies have confirmed the benefit of universal masking in community level analyses: in a unified hospital system,38 a German city,39 a U.S. state,40 a panel of 15 U.S. states and Washington, D.C.,41,42 as well as both Canada43 and the U.S.44 nationally. Each analysis demonstrated that, following directives from organizational and political leadership for universal masking, new infections fell significantly. Two of these studies42,44 and an additional analysis of data from 200 countries that included the U.S.45 also demonstrated reductions in mortality. An economic analysis using U.S. data found that, given these effects, increasing universal masking by 15% could prevent the need for lockdowns and reduce associated losses of up to $1 trillion or about 5% of gross domestic product.42

Conclusions

Experimental and epidemiological data support community masking to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The prevention benefit of masking is derived from the combination of source control and personal protection for the mask wearer. The relationship between source control and personal protection is likely complementary and possibly synergistic14, so that individual benefit increases with increasing community mask use. Further research is needed to expand the evidence base for the protective effect of cloth masks and in particular to identify the combinations of materials that maximize both their blocking and filtering effectiveness, as well as fit, comfort, durability, and consumer appeal. Adopting universal masking policies can help avert future lockdowns, especially if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand hygiene, and adequate ventilation.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Only thing i can see making a difference now is if you can get personal testing into homes where you can test everyday.

Or more ideally, just a vaccine. That and therapeutics to hold the death rate down are about all we can do.

Agreed 100%.