***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Chief Roundup]

So the place I work is now allowing employees and vendors from infected areas onto the campus with even a conversation after they sent out an email stating that all faculty, staff, students and visitors had to be cleared by the medical staff.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by FAX

I should also like to say that it probably doesn't matter at this point. The horse is out of the barn.

People will believe what they "want" to believe. I'm not trying to change that because I know I can't and pissing up ropes is not my idea of good times. My actual idea is simply this; there are gobs of data available and I encourage you guys to dive into that pool of information. Knowledge helps.

Things may be dire. They may not be dire. That is where we are and we have no choice other than to deal with it.

I'm just a dude playing a dude disguised as another dude. And this particular, individual dude isn't completely sold on the overall response we've seen (to date) related to this health threat.

FAX

To this let's look at some numbers. For perspective we have to maintain the assumption that the number of cases will increase along with the number of deaths. The question is how much for both?

At this point of all active cases in the us only 12 are serious\critical. That's .002%.

At this point the mortality rate is at 1.7%. That is down from 2.5% a week ago.

So while we know that more people will get diagnosed we have to hope these 2 numbers stay low or get lower.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by FAX

Well, the global mortality rate of the seasonal flu is not 0.1% ... not if you use "confirmed cases" (as reported by the CDC system) as the baseline. If you do that, the mortality rate of seasonal flu is closer to 10%

You think that 10% of those who get seasonal flu die from it? What "confirmed case" number did you use to draw this conclusion?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

You think that 10% of those who get seasonal flu die from it? What "confirmed case" number did you use to draw this conclusion?

I don't know where he got his numbers but all flu numbers I have seen seem to include estimates of cases and not strictly reported\confirmed cases.

[eDave]

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

We are living in a period of history that will far eclipse 9/11 and people here still saying it isn't a big deal because they can't understand the response from the entire world and want to keep their gyms open.

I'll post it again even though some idiot downvoted it for the media company it came from. This is the blueprint of the future before this shit gets locked down.

A few things....
- Things are relatively okay right now in the US compared to Italy, Spain, China, etc. (OBVIOUSLY not a reason to ignore precautions, I'm just saying when you look out the window and it's sunny, it's hard to imagine preparing for a tornado)
- There's probably not a ton of "the why" out there when it comes to closures and what not, outside of "look at what's happening in Italy"... I see "shit's closed" for my relatively small town or "close all bars/restaurants/movie theaters/etc." for an entire state with no information about the impact to that state, much less one city.
- Exponential math is hard to imagine when it comes to how quickly things can change (and most people are already bad at math). Knowing Italy went from 3000 cases to 10k in a matter of a week and a half is very telling, whether they actually had closer to 10k cases before testing.

I'm personally well aware of what we're trying to prevent in terms of hospitals collapsing under the strain of a huge outbreak, but given the lack of testing in the US and lack of real localized reasoning for some of the decisions being made and the lack of some sort of unified messaging/planning, it does come across as panic and "well, this state/event/etc. is doing this, so we'll do it, too" instead of a reasoned response to real data and facts.

So, you end up with toilet paper hoarders.

Again, not saying we shouldn't take precautions, and I totally agree with shutting down non-essential travel and huge sporting events... but, when it goes from that to people losing jobs and their livelihoods in a matter of a couple days with the aforementioned lack of real localized information...

[petegz28]

More numbers for perspective. The media is not going into detail on these and that's one of my biggest complaints.

Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Donger

You think that 10% of those who get seasonal flu die from it? What "confirmed case" number did you use to draw this conclusion?

I posted some of the confirmed case data above. It isn't near what he is saying.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by eDave

[FAX]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Which virologists are suggesting that the virus that causes Covid-19 has been around a long time?

I'm really trying to find your data

I see that we have had around 18k influenza hospitalizations this year, and 260000 positive tests.

How does that even come close to a 10 percent case fatality? That's not even a 10 percent hospitalization.

The CDC website is a pretty good place to start. The 10% is the mortality rate emerging from "confirmed cases", Mr. SupDock. Your guess is as good as mine (and theirs) as to how many cases went "unconfirmed".

Once I clear some time, I'll post some links to interviews with the virologists I mentioned above. I found them on various sites, however. Personally, I prefer the long-form interviews ... not the talking-head-for-pay types.

FAX

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by FAX

The CDC website is a pretty good place to start. The 10% is the mortality rate emerging from "confirmed cases", Mr. SupDock. Your guess is as good as mine (and theirs) as to how many cases went "unconfirmed".

Once I clear some time, I'll post some links to interviews with the virologists I mentioned above. I found them on various sites, however. Personally, I prefer the long-form interviews ... not the talking-head-for-pay types.

FAX

I posted the data above. It isn't 10 percent.


I see that we have had around 18k confirmed influenza hospitalizations this year, and 260000 positive tests

That's less than 10 percent hospitalization.

I would love to see where on the CDC website you got your data, because I got mine from the recent influenza surveillance report

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[Chiefspants]

Hey - shoutout to the mods for their work in this thread.

It’s been contentious at points - but this has honestly been a great resource to find great sources and share fears and discussion about this - especially compared to some of the cesspits I’ve encountered on Facebook and Reddit.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I posted the data above. It isn't 10 percent.


I see that we have had around 18k confirmed influenza hospitalizations this year, and 260000 positive tests

That's less than 10 percent hospitalization.

I would love to see where on the CDC website you got your data, because I got mine from the recent influenza surveillance report

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#whomap

I presume that FAX is using the following:

No. of positive specimens = 222,552

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Donger

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#whomap

I presume that FAX is using the following:

No. of positive specimens = 222,552

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

You cant use confirmed positive cases for the demoniator unless you are using confirmed case hospitilazation for the numerator. That use of data doesn't make sense.

[Chief Roundup]

Man I can't believe that where I work that they are not follow their own protocols when it comes to Coronavirus. Workers are not being instructed to go see the appointed person after returning from an infected area because the supervisor thinks this is all a bunch of crap and that God will save us unless it was just your time.

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