***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

['Hamas' Jenkins]

First, we need to establish a differentiation--the WHO is basing their opinion on a mortality benefit, which has not been demonstrated. However, that does not mean there is not a morbidity benefit.

Well, what's the difference? Mortality benefit= fewer people who take the drug die. Morbidity benefit = people who take the drug are incapacitated for a shorter period of time.

While remdesivir has not shown a mortality benefit, the fact that it has been shown to reduce hospitalization length in the ACTT-1 trial is extremely important in a time of limited resources.

Originally Posted by Hawker007

That's weird as I have heard it has been working. I personally know someone it definitely helped while they were in the hospital. I just don't get the extreme differences in findings in the medical community around medications.

They generally aren't extreme differences, save for some of the hydroxychloroquine trials that came out of France and were touted by people that didn't understand the inherent flaws of those trials (and that most of the data was likely fabricated or edited for effect). What you are generally looking for is an improvement that is outside two standard deviations, meaning that 95% of the time, it's not due to chance. The original study that remdesivir based its EUA and subsequent FDA approval on showed a 33% reduction in length of hospital stay, but not a mortality benefit, and it was demonstrated to four standard deviations (p<0.001) What that means is that if you would normally stay 15 days in the hospital with COVID, a patient treated with remdesivir would stay for 10. This is extremely important when it comes to resource allocation, as essentially every hospital in this area is on a bed hold and/or some form of diversion.

Originally Posted by DaFace

I haven't dug deeply into the studies they used to form their recommendation, but the placebo effect is a very real and well-documented thing. It's possible that that the person you knew would have recovered just as well without it. That's why randomized, controlled trials are so important.

WHO is basing their information on SOLIDARITY, which is open-label. I originally hoped it would have been a blinded study, and it was the largest attempt at a multinational study treating several interventions (hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir) but likely due to resource allocation they left it open to ensure that more people received treatment. While this seems compassionate on its face--and people must receive *some* treatment to adhere to ethical standards in trials for diseases that are fatal without treatment (cancer)--it makes their data less robust when performing a clinical analysis.

The Infectious Disease Society of America (IDSA) Guidelines still recommend remdesivir for five days in moderate-severe COVID cases and for ten days in severe disease where patients require ventilation and/or ECMO.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

The FDA also approved an EUA for baracitinib for use in conjunction with remdesivir. Baracitinib works as an inhibitor of the inflammatory process and was originally approved for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Oh I'm sure it resonates with a certain demographic. For sure.

And now Illinois Gov is relating said narrative in press conferences as something personally related to him.

Originally Posted by Pritzker

Doctors and nurses tell me that some people who come into emergency rooms with COVID, sometimes struggling to breathe, are screaming at hospital workers about how the disease is a hoax or some sort of hospital profit scheme. It's beyond tragic for all involved

[TLO]

Doctors and nurses tell me that some people who come into emergency rooms with COVID, sometimes struggling to breathe, are screaming at hospital workers about how the disease is a hoax or some sort of hospital profit scheme. It's beyond tragic for all involved

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by TLO

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

And now Illinois Gov is relating said narrative in press conferences as something personally related to him.

I heard those Pritzker comments the other morning. He also graced us with comments regarding an alleged picture of his daughter not following public health guidelines posted to social media. The important stuff we all tune in for.

Chicago has been pretty cooperative through all this but I'm hearing/seeing more "Pritzker Prison" grumbles lately.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by R Clark

Good god how much sense does it take to know if you cover your mouth it’s going to cut down on what’s coming out ? Then simply reverse and it has to stop some of what’s coming in. Very few things are 100 percent in this world , wearing a mask just helps the odds just as washing your hands. Hell your mother taught you to cover your mouth when you cough when you were a kid so you wouldn’t spray shit all over people

The same goes for "things aren't black and white/100%"... math and percentages are hard.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

The same goes for "things aren't black and white/100%"... math and percentages are hard.

Clearly they should have gone with 2/6

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

The same goes for "things aren't black and white/100%"... math and percentages are hard.

Or maybe too much veg

[sedated]

Now I want a burger

[crispystl]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

We aren’t going to be around any family for Thanksgiving this year. I have to admit I am looking forward to it. For the last 10+ years we always drive hours to go to different family Thanksgivings so it will be nice just to relax at home and watch some football and stuff my face.

We moved 800 miles away from our families about 12 years ago. Ever since then every Christmas and Thanksgiving has been just me, my wife, and my son at our home with no one else. It’s beautiful. Especially since as a kid I got dragged to every damn one of my stepdads family get togethers against my will.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TLO]

Originally Posted by TLO

Mark down December 10th on your calendars ladies and gents. That's the day Pfizer will get EUA authorization. And if we're really lucky... Moderna too.

God willing and if the data is good.

FDA NEWS RELEASE

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Announces Advisory Committee Meeting to Discuss COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate

For Immediate Release:
November 20, 2020
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has scheduled a meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) on Dec. 10 to discuss the request for emergency use authorization (EUA) of a COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer, Inc. in partnership with BioNTech Manufacturing GmbH.

“The FDA recognizes that transparency and dialogue are critical for the public to have confidence in COVID-19 vaccines. I want to assure the American people that the FDA’s process and evaluation of the data for a potential COVID-19 vaccine will be as open and transparent as possible,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “The FDA has been preparing for the review of EUAs for COVID-19 vaccines for several months and stands ready to do so as soon as an EUA request is submitted. While we cannot predict how long the FDA’s review will take, the FDA will review the request as expeditiously as possible, while still doing so in a thorough and science-based manner, so that we can help make available a vaccine that the American people deserve as soon as possible. A discussion about the safety and effectiveness of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine with this committee, made up of outside scientific and public health experts from around the country, will help ensure clear public understanding of the scientific data and information that the FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize a vaccine for emergency use for the prevention of COVID-19.”

The FDA intends to make background materials available to the public, including the meeting agenda and committee roster, no later than two business days prior to the meeting. In general, advisory committees include a chair, members with scientific and public health expertise, and a consumer, industry, and sometimes a patient representative. Additional experts with specific expertise may be added for individual meetings as needed.

More info at the link

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...vid-19-vaccine

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by TLO

Mark down December 10th on your calendars ladies and gents. That's the day Pfizer will get EUA authorization. And if we're really lucky... Moderna too.

God willing and if the data is good.

I wonder what that means for vaccine distribution. I assume they're already manufacturing it in large quantities, so is it already being distributed around the country? I'm ready to get this thing done and over with.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I wonder what that means for vaccine distribution. I assume they're already manufacturing it in large quantities, so is it already being distributed around the country? I'm ready to get this thing done and over with.

It means no changes.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I wonder what that means for vaccine distribution. I assume they're already manufacturing it in large quantities, so is it already being distributed around the country? I'm ready to get this thing done and over with.

Multiple phase rollout. Phase I for frontline workers in large metro areas in December; Phase II for essential workers/extended healthcare professionals in early 2021; Phase III for everyone else somewhere around April.

Refrigeration and storage requirements vary for the two different vaccines, which means that the Pfizer vaccine is likely to stay close to areas that can more easily support the storage requirements (-70*C), whereas the Moderna vaccine can be stored in many traditional freezers (-4*F or -20*C).