***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by stevieray

That was one of the things that always stuck out.

You have to PRESUME you have it and have to PRESUME you are asymptomatic, yet are still "contagious"

They have known this for a while , pre symptomatic spread ( infected but no symptoms yet) is the main issue of a symptomatic spread , or very mild or weird symptoms for a respiratory disease ( diarrhea) .

[MahomesMagic]

Question is will Facebook fact checkers still rate this as false information?!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by stevieray

That was one of the things that always stuck out.

You have to PRESUME you have it and have to PRESUME you are asymptomatic, yet are still "contagious"

By the time you show symptoms, you’ve been infectious for a solid 48 hours.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by O.city

By the time you show symptoms, you’ve been infectious for a solid 48 hours.

IF you show symptoms.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by stevieray

IF you show symptoms.

Unless you can predict the future , you can at least see the dilemma right?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Unless you can predict the future , you can at least see the dilemma right?

People can't perpetually live their lives assuming they are sick as well.....

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by O.city

The number one risk factor for this seems to be age. Last couple things I've read had obesity not quite at the risk factor level they initially thought.

It's definitely a risk factor for various other issues and a big problem, causes a huge bog on health care and health care costs yearly.

I'm not sure the solution.

I've been trying to lower my age count for years, but nothing seems to work.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Monticore

They have known this for a while , pre symptomatic spread ( infected but no symptoms yet) is the main issue of a symptomatic spread , or very mild or weird symptoms for a respiratory disease ( diarrhea) .

My friend thought it was just allergies for the first few days. During that time she gave it to her roommate. Then they both got pretty sick. The line between asymptomatic/presymptomatic and symptomatic is very fuzzy.

[Donger]

FWIW:

London (CNN)Parts of Britain will go back into lockdown during Christmas after a newly identified strain of Covid-19 proved to spread more quickly than previous strains of the virus.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a series of stricter coronavirus restrictions, tightening rules around household mixing that were due to be relaxed over Christmas in London and southeast England.

The PM broke the news Saturday that London and the southeast of England, where cases are surging, will go into Tier 4 restrictions, similar to a lockdown, on Sunday.

"The spread is being driven by the new variant of the virus," Johnson said in a hastily called press conference. "It appears to spread more easily and may be up to 70% more transmissable than the earlier strain."

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Donger

FWIW:

London (CNN)Parts of Britain will go back into lockdown during Christmas after a newly identified strain of Covid-19 proved to spread more quickly than previous strains of the virus.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a series of stricter coronavirus restrictions, tightening rules around household mixing that were due to be relaxed over Christmas in London and southeast England.

The PM broke the news Saturday that London and the southeast of England, where cases are surging, will go into Tier 4 restrictions, similar to a lockdown, on Sunday.

"The spread is being driven by the new variant of the virus," Johnson said in a hastily called press conference. "It appears to spread more easily and may be up to 70% more transmissable than the earlier strain."

And so it begins...

[notorious]

Originally Posted by stevieray

And so it begins...

At this rate it will never end.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by notorious

At this rate it will never end.

I think that's the plan.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by notorious

At this rate it will never end.

Of course it will. It's not seasonal influenza, which doesn't go away.

[MahomesMagic]

https://www.gisaid.org/references/gi...-vui-20201201/


UK reports new variant, termed VUI 202012/01
The United Kingdom reported a new variant, termed VUI 202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation, year 2020, month 12, variant 01). It was defined by multiple spike protein mutations (deletion 69-70, deletion 144-145, N501Y, A570D, D614G, P681H, T716I, S982A, D1118H). There are currently 24,746 viruses from the UK in GISAID EpiCoV with a collection date since 1. November. A small fraction of them, about 6% (all from clade GR) share several of these mutations. Based on evaluation of effect on virus structure and function, the most relevant might be N501Y (orange in Figure; host receptor and antibody binding, also reported at gisaid.org/spike) and the deletions (cyan in Figure) in positions contributing to potential spike surface variation (Y145del is where some antibodies like neutralizing 4A8 bind).

The other mutations (blue in Figure) are further down the structure and their effect is less clear. There is also an early NS8 Q27stop codon in these strains which could be relevant as ORF8 deletions have been seen before for this virus (including in Singapore, notably resulting in attenuation). As seen on many occasions before, mutations are naturally expected for viruses and are most often simply neutral regional markers useful for contact tracing. The mutations seen have rarely been affecting viral fitness and almost never affect clinical outcome but the detailed effects of these mutations remain to be determined fully.

[MahomesMagic]

1) THREAD - Why the new SARS-CoV-2 UK variant is NOT a new strain.

Unfortunately the way this recent development has been reported has upset a lot in the scientific community. It scares the public rather than inform them. That's where we come in. pic.twitter.com/Z525j0NjdG

— Simply Biochemistry (@SimplyBiochem) December 15, 2020

A new strain of COVID-19 would have to be so different from the original that your immune system's training through vaccination or getting it previously would no longer be useful.

The new spike protein would have to differ so much from the original.

But is this the case? No.

This mutation is called N501Y. There is currently NO evidence that this variant, or any other, significantly affects the immune-trained response or increases infectiousness, rate of transmission or severity of infection.

So why are people panicking? Misreporting.

Most people will read 'New COVID-19 strain' on a headline and think the worst. At the moment, researchers are closely monitoring mutations, but there is no evidence of concern yet to report.

What could be causing the prevalence of this variant?

Chance. The prevalence of this variant could be due to the other variants reaching a state of 'Zero COVID' during lockdowns. Superspreaders could have then been responsible for this variant taking the lead.

Whilst prevalence can suggest that it does have an evolutionary advantage, correlation does not equal causation!

For now, we can be confident that vaccines will work on this new variant, and we can still expect some semblance of normality in 2021. Stay hopeful!