***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Just crossed 400k dead. So sad and unbelievable and this didn't have to be this way.

You could never keep this at bay in a country the size of the US. We’re not NZ. We will be out of this mess and better in the next 6 months. Other country’s like NZ will continue to have to have huge travel restrictions until they can vaccinate all of their population with US and UK created and produced vaccines.

It’s terrible how many people we’ve lost and all the long term sickness, but once this started spreading there was no stopping it. It’s the perfect storm of infectiousness and lethality to spread uncontrolled through large high population country’s.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You know you are just doing this to yourself right? Do you stay up at night being depressed about other diseases you are more likely to die from than Covid?

I worry about these variants taking hold which will lead to more lockdowns, deaths etc. I really want this to ****ing end.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

The variants that are more transmissible are definitely cause for concern, moreso because they seem to spread so much faster and efficiently. I would be shocked if they already have antibody escape, but it's possible.

Quicker transmission is actually worse than more morbid.

I don't know if you have seen that pre print yet but IIRC they took blood from people that had known infections and tested it against the SA variant and over half the antibodies didn't touch the new variant. Which is now raising alarm bells everywhere.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I worry about these variants taking hold which will lead to more lockdowns, deaths etc. I really want this to ****ing end.

The vaccine is being distributed as we speak, give it a minute and focus on the positive. And considering how the vaccine works on the protein spike uptake inhibiting I don't think being more transmittable would change the effectiveness. I'm not a scientist obviously but that wouldn't add up.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The vaccine is being distributed as we speak, give it a minute and focus on the positive. And considering how the vaccine works on the protein spike uptake inhibiting I don't think being more transmittable would change the effectiveness. I'm not a scientist obviously but that wouldn't add up.

The mutations are happening in the actual spike protein. So if the protein structure is different, the current vaccines woudlnt' have efficacy as it's making immune cells that wouldn't recognize that spike.

[dirk digler]

Preliminary data from South Africa suggests that the novel variant 501.V2 wasn't recognised by antibodies in 21/44 serum samples collected from people infected in the first wave - worth watching today's presentation for more info & caveats https://t.co/rQo6YjzfpU pic.twitter.com/jGFWcguRFU

— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) January 18, 2021

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

The mutations are happening in the actual spike protein. So if the protein structure is different, the current vaccines woudlnt' have efficacy as it's making immune cells that wouldn't recognize that spike.

yep that is what they are seeing. My understanding Pfizer is supposed to have data out soon in regards to both the the UK and SA variant and whether or not their vaccine works.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

The mutations are happening in the actual spike protein. So if the protein structure is different, the current vaccines woudlnt' have efficacy as it's making immune cells that wouldn't recognize that spike.

Ah well I guess we are all dead then, I'll cash out my 401K this week.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

yep that is what they are seeing. My understanding Pfizer is supposed to have data out soon in regards to both the the UK and SA variant and whether or not their vaccine works.

From 19hrs ago.

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pan...eading-quickly

“Its affinity and its ability to bind to the human cell is now stronger,” he said in a briefing late Monday. “And that's what enables it to become a more efficient virus in the way it transmits .... So this drastic change that we're seeing is being driven by a virus that certainly, biologically looks like it can attach to human cells more efficiently.”

But, he adds, scientists haven’t concluded that this variant is more severe. In fact, he said, current data suggests it is not.

And he quickly allayed fears that the 1.5 million vaccine doses expected to land in South Africa by February won’t work on this new strain.

“I will not even attempt to speculate on that matter,” he said. “I'll wait for the data. And certainly, we have no empirical evidence yet on whether vaccines are effective against this variant. Those studies are still under way.”

Also the study you referenced appears to not be relevant to vaccines, only natural antibodies.

Studies also suggest that natural antibodies - produced by the body to fight infection - are less effective, Karim added.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

From 19hrs ago.

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pan...eading-quickly



Also the study you referenced appears to not be relevant to vaccines, only natural antibodies.

That would mean we need to vaccinate more people. I'm skeptical about this not being recognized by vaccination produced immune response, that would be pretty quick, but with this much spread you're gonna get mutations.

Faster spread is actually worse than deadlier virus IIRC.

[KCUnited]

Got my dad on a vaccine list in KS (1B)

I signed up here in Chicago but phase 2 (>16 with no underlying conditions) is tentatively scheduled for 5/31. Hoping it moves faster as things ramp up

[Donger]

I wonder if the non-mRNA vaccines would have better efficacy with these variants when compared to the mRNA.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

From 19hrs ago.

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pan...eading-quickly



Also the study you referenced appears to not be relevant to vaccines, only natural antibodies.

But it is not less severe and we already have 400k dead. Easier spread = more deaths.

Let's all hope that the vaccines will work and I am confidant the mRNA's ones can be updated quickly but then you got to get them out to the people every year.

[Donger]

COVID-19 deaths: Infection fatality ratio is about 1% says new report

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/2072...ty-ratio-says/

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

I wonder if the non-mRNA vaccines would have better efficacy with these variants when compared to the mRNA.

Would all depend on what antigen they're making a response based on.