***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

I'd guess it's more likely your antibody test was false.

[Mr. Plow]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd guess it's more likely your antibody test was false.

That is my thought as well.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I'm amazed how many people seem to want to look for ways for this to never end. It's a mind set I just can't grasp.

Fueled by two things (1) public health officials who fear nobody will listen to them if this thing is going away and (2) media outlets that know bad news and fear gets more clicks than good news and fearlessness

[KC_Lee]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Fueled by two things (1) public health officials who fear nobody will listen to them if this thing is going away and (2) media outlets that know bad news and fear gets more clicks than good news and fearlessness

Allow me to add a 3rd item; businesses worried about getting sued if someone gets 'da 'Rona in their place of businesses. Think airlines, most major retailers, etc.

Given the litigious nature of our society I guarantee that this is major worry for most businesses.

[BigCatDaddy]

I wonder how much of it is people just want to watch society burn and people being unable to be happy living their normal lives. Misery, company and all that. Any good news is met with a "well but".

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by KC_Lee

Allow me to add a 3rd item; businesses worried about getting sued if someone gets 'da 'Rona in their place of businesses. Think airlines, most major retailers, etc.

Given the litigious nature of our society I guarantee that this is major worry for most businesses.

Probably much less of a concern than going completely out of business. At this point they should have a level of immunity anyway. Nobody is making anyone go anywhere for business, its all choice with known risk at this point.

[KC_Lee]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Probably much less of a concern than going completely out of business.

Yeah but the big box stores like Wal Mart have very little to worry about on that front. Hate to wade into politics here, but if there were protections from being sued by someone getting sick on an airplane or in a grocery store these restrictions would end quicker.

[Perineum Ripper]

VA offered me an opportunity to get the shot, declined it, told them to give it to someone older. I’m young, healthy and can wait until later for it, hopefully my spot goes to someone who needs it more than I

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

#ZeroCOVID or #HarmReduction?
— Vinay Prasad weighs the two competing targets
by Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH February 9, 2021

Meanwhile, vaccination changes the calculus. Across all vaccine trials to date, and 65,000 vaccinated participants, there are zero hospitalizations and zero deaths. Vaccination removes the fangs from the snake. If we can successfully vaccinate adults, particularly older adults, then eradicating SARS-CoV-2 takes on less importance.
...

I struggle to think this is a realistic, feasible or practical goal for us. If you read my past columns, it should come as no surprise that I am of the school of public health that favors harm reduction. But I am curious about what you think?[/I]

https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/91123

Vaccination is a game changer and global eradication ain't happening.

That said:

Unfortunately, vaccinations aren't 100% effective and mutations are happening. So, the snake hasn't been completely defanged.

If the vaccine is 90~95% effective against the original version and anywhere from 50-85% effective against new versions; and you have a significant number of people under 50 that probably aren't going to get vaccinated so the virus is going to continue to spread

This means a lot of people over 80 are going to continue to die. Not as many and not as quickly as currently, which is absolutely a good thing. But it will still be a lot.

And just because somebody under 50 has already had the virus, doesn't mean they won't be able to get it a second time. This is already happening in South Africa and South America. Those that got the virus in 2020 and don't get vaccinated stand a good chance of getting a second version in 2021. Especially if they have the attitude that things are 'over' and everyone goes back to a business as usual.

And the more people both in the US and around the globe that get the virus, the more chances the virus has to mutate and come up with versions that are resistant to whatever the current vaccines are. So just because there is a vaccine available to those that want to take it, those that refuse still can effect those that want it.

Hopefully, they can roll out updated vaccines fast enough to keep up with the changes in the virus.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I'm amazed how many people seem to want to look for ways for this to never end. It's a mind set I just can't grasp.

Being cleared eyed about the danger isn't the same as wanting things to not end.

I haven't visited my elderly mom in over a year because I haven't wanted to travel halfway across the country and put her at risk because she is in a very high risk group. Thankfully, she is within days of getting her second shot and I have already made plans to fly out.

Sure, there are some that seem to delight in the sky is falling or cheering on a slow motion train wreck. But I think those that have been saying this is a real issue have generally been closer to how things have worked out than those that have dismissive of this from the beginning.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

We have been told from day 1 with viruses that they mutate to more transmittable and less deadly correct?

Mutations that are more transmittable are strongly selected for. So for instance, when you have half the population vaccinated but the virus is still widely circulating, there will be strong selection pressure for the virus to mutate to a version that will evade the vaccine.

And when the virus is circulating in a population where some already have some immunity from already having had it, again there will be selection pressure to mutate to a form that can reinfect.

The pressure to be less deadly isn't necessarily as strong. If the person is most infectious at the beginning of the illness, then it doesn't really make the virus that more transmissible if the person lives or dies at the end. But over the long term, the expected trend would be toward less deadly.

[Chief Pagan]

About 40% of the nation’s coronavirus deaths could have been prevented if the United States’ average death rate matched other industrialized nations, a new Lancet Commission report has found.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ll/4453762001/

[philfree]

The wife is scheduled for her first shot on Sat. In Branson. We live in Springfield but whatever. My wife has been signing up everyday for weeks with no word but then my cousin comes to town and within two days she gets vaccinated. She lives up by KC. WTF? So we'll drive to Branson and get it. What a ****ed up mess.

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd guess it's more likely your antibody test was false.

So do they pull blood on this test?

[Demonpenz]

I haven't been able to breathe well. had it in 5 weeks I am short of breathe still.If is no joke.