*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I would not. Almonte is the #1 SP prospect we have atm. If we have any hope of staying competitive past 2017 we really need either him or Zimmer to work out.

With Zimmer and Manaea's injury history, there was a very good reason why Almonte was considered untouchable at the deadline.

The trade would nearly guarantee us another playoff appearance. Worth it every time, IMO.

[lewdog]

Can't deplete the farm of any more arms IMO. I'm definitely out on sending Almonte anywhere.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Can't deplete the farm of any more arms IMO. I'm definitely out on sending Almonte anywhere.

What do they say? TINSTAPP?

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

What do they say? TINSTAPP?

I doubt many will claim it now, but there were a fair amount of people who wanted us to flip Ventura for Howie Kendrick in 2013. TINSTAPP and "next Juan Cruz" were the main points of this crowd's argument.

I am all for keeping our 2016-2017 window as wide open as possible, but I'd rather we do it ala re-upping Gordo and Zo than depleting MLB ready arms on our farm.

[Coach]

Slow news day, but...

Read up on our PDC extension w/ the @Royals, extending the longest AAA affiliation in @MiLB
https://t.co/CdLHVX0Q3Y pic.twitter.com/3BW7531Dx3

— Omaha Storm Chasers (@OMAStormChasers) November 17, 2015

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I doubt many will claim it now, but there were a fair amount of people who wanted us to flip Ventura for Howie Kendrick in 2013. TINSTAPP and "next Juan Cruz" were the main points of this crowd's argument.

I am all for keeping our 2016-2017 window as wide open as possible, but I'd rather we do it ala re-upping Gordo and Zo than depleting MLB ready arms on our farm.

Well, TINSTAPP doesn't mean undervalue your prospects either, the term was coined in response to fans irrationally overvaluing pitching prospects to an extreme. If you don't need to sell off your lottery tickets to improve the team, then you may as well scratch them and see if you won.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Well, TINSTAPP doesn't mean undervalue your prospects either, the term was coined in response to fans irrationally overvaluing pitching prospects to an extreme. If you don't need to sell off your lottery tickets to improve the team, then you may as well scratch them and see if you won.

Oh, absolutely. My comment was more in reference to those who use TINSTAPP as justification to trade every pitching prospect away.

[duncan_idaho]

I think a trade of a long-controlled piece like Almonte would more be more likely for a piece like Marcell Ozuna, who is controlled for 4 more seasons if I remember correctly.

For a one-year rental, I don't think Almonte would be on the table. Especially not for a guy who is a good-but-not-great impact guy.

Something like Cheslor Cuthbert + Jorge Bonifacio, I could buy (though I don't know that Bonifacio fits what the A's want from hitters, Cuthbert's patience at the plate DOES).

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I think a trade of a long-controlled piece like Almonte would more be more likely for a piece like Marcell Ozuna, who is controlled for 4 more seasons if I remember correctly.

For a one-year rental, I don't think Almonte would be on the table. Especially not for a guy who is a good-but-not-great impact guy.

Something like Cheslor Cuthbert + Jorge Bonifacio, I could buy (though I don't know that Bonifacio fits what the A's want from hitters, Cuthbert's patience at the plate DOES).

I personally would be taken aback a bit if the Royals parted with Cuthbert. I was surprised but Andy listed him as one of the Royals "untouchables" during the deadline.

[tk13]

I'd buy that. I'm a big Cuthbert fan. He just looks like he has "it." When he got a chance to play he looked like he belongs.

I like Almonte too though. He's more of a raw project but his stuff is off the charts good. If we could somehow get him and Zimmer right along with Ventura who is signed long term, we will do some damage. Pair that with Cuthbert/Mondesi/Salvy and hopefully a couple from our current core group, this team will be competitive.

[WhawhaWhat]

@SSJWHB @nate_bukaty @TheFakeNed @TacoSalazarKC Moose is at Dancing with the Stars?? pic.twitter.com/VUwg43YIqi

— greg herman (@ghermang) November 17, 2015

[Prison Bitch]

Alex won't be doing the Plaza light switch this year. (Will be the chick who wrote "Gone Girl")

A sign?

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Well, TINSTAPP doesn't mean undervalue your prospects either, the term was coined in response to fans irrationally overvaluing pitching prospects to an extreme. If you don't need to sell off your lottery tickets to improve the team, then you may as well scratch them and see if you won.

Wasn't sure what TINSTAAPP was so I had to look it up. First article that came up was something from Dec. 2010 on ESPN. Had a couple of lines I thought were funny--one about Alex Gordon being a bust, and another about the writer being skeptical the Royals could make a run by 2013 or 14.

He mentions the Royals needing three of its talented but young starters to pan out, but I don't know exactly who he is talking about. Could have been Ventura and Duffy and someone, or it could have been someone already on the team. Anyway, just thought it was funny.

Just another TINSTAAPP lesson

12/28/2010
Rob Neyer

We've talked about TINSTAAPP -- TINZ-tap: "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect." -- before, but I find the principle endlessly fascinating, so I was glad to find that some enterprising young fellow has compiled 21 years' worth of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects lists, from which one might glean all sorts of interesting notions.

I'm going to start with something really simple. Here are the top-rated hitters and pitchers from each year, presented chronologically (in a number of cases, the top-rated guy repeated a year later, and they are noted as such) ...

Hitters: Andujar Cedeno, Chipper Jones (2), Cliff Floyd, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones (2), Ben Grieve, J.D. Drew, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer (2), Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Jay Bruce, Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward.

Pitchers: Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor (2), James Baldwin, Armando Benitez, Paul Wilson, Kerry Wood (2), Rick Ankiel (2), Josh Beckett (2), Jesse Foppert, Edwin Jackson, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Stephen Strasburg.

I believe that first list accounts for six MVP Awards, and the second for exactly one Cy Young Award.

I believe the first list includes one absolute bust -- arguably Gordon, so far -- while the second includes two absolute busts (Taylor and Foppert) along with a number of pitchers (Van Poppel, Baldwin, Wilson, Wood) who did hang around for a while but never hit the predicted heights.

Ankiel is in a class of his own. The jury is still out on Dice-K and Joba. You really can't say anything negative about Hernandez or Price (except Price is still young and highly susceptible to the same injury woes that have waylaid so many other young pitchers).

None of this means that young pitchers aren't valuable, or shouldn't be considered legitimate prospects. And at least a few teams do seem to have made some real progress toward keeping young pitchers healthy. As Jonah Keri notes in his soon-to-be-published book about the Rays:
The Rays’ new generation of pitchers wasn’t merely good. It was also extraordinarily healthy. From late 2005 to mid-2009, only one pitcher at any level of the organization, left-hander Jacob McGee, underwent Tommy John surgery; no team saw a lower rate during that stretch. From May 2008 to August 2010, only one Rays starter, Scott Kazmir, spent a single day on the disabled list, making Tampa Bay’s the healthiest pitching staff in baseball by a mile. (Niemann and Davis went on the DL in August 2010 with minor injuries; both returned quickly.)

The point is that unless you're a Rays fan, you might want to make at least some small attempt to avoid getting too excited about young pitchers. Frankly, this is what leaves me most skeptical about the Royals and their (now) Mission 2013 (or '14). Especially considering the departure of Zack Greinke, the Royals' youth movement simply won't work unless at least three of their very talented, but very young, starting pitchers pan out. And history suggests that they will not.

[Chiefspants]

Rob Neyer gave up on the Royals around 2009.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Rob Neyer gave up on the Royals around 2009.

He was pretty open that he did it for multiple reasons.

1. self preservation - to keep his sanity

2. he needed to show a bit of impartiality as he moved up the national sportswriter ranks.