***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Math is beautiful but often hard and sometimes counterintuitive. No wonder antivaxxers don’t get it.

But the bottom line is this: these Covid vaccines are amazing life-saving miracle drugs, without which the world would have been proper ****ed by now. pic.twitter.com/CHEGPQos4Q

— Yuri Deigin (@ydeigin) August 19, 2021

Can one of you statistically inclined fellas explain Simpsons paradox to me

I'm not going to pretend to understand all this. But I believe the answer to your question is in here.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by O.city

Math is beautiful but often hard and sometimes counterintuitive. No wonder antivaxxers don’t get it.

But the bottom line is this: these Covid vaccines are amazing life-saving miracle drugs, without which the world would have been proper ****ed by now. pic.twitter.com/CHEGPQos4Q

— Yuri Deigin (@ydeigin) August 19, 2021

Can one of you statistically inclined fellas explain Simpsons paradox to me

That over 50 years old number is ridiculous for unvaxxed. The under 50 looks not too bad at all.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Math is beautiful but often hard and sometimes counterintuitive. No wonder antivaxxers don’t get it.

But the bottom line is this: these Covid vaccines are amazing life-saving miracle drugs, without which the world would have been proper ****ed by now. pic.twitter.com/CHEGPQos4Q

— Yuri Deigin (@ydeigin) August 19, 2021

Can one of you statistically inclined fellas explain Simpsons paradox to me

I don't fully understand it, but the illustrations on the right side of this page help a little bit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

Essentially, there is a causal relationship between age and severity of illness (e.g., older people are more likely to be hospitalized), and just throwing them all into one bucket makes the assumption that that relationship doesn't exist. So you end up with the efficacy numbers overall looking bad for all age groups when the reality is that you just threw a ton of people who were more likely to be seriously ill in the first place into the mix.

In short, this is an example of why random people on the internet like us should just step back and let the experts deal with it.

(And also, the vaccines work. Big surprise.)

[O.city]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

That over 50 years old number is ridiculous for unvaxxed. The under 50 looks not too bad at all.

Ridiculous how?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I don't fully understand it, but the illustrations on the right side of this page help a little bit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

Essentially, there is a causal relationship between age and severity of illness (e.g., older people are more likely to be hospitalized), and just throwing them all into one bucket makes the assumption that that relationship doesn't exist. So you end up with the efficacy numbers overall looking bad for all age groups when the reality is that you just threw a ton of people who were more likely to be seriously ill in the first place into the mix.

In short, this is an example of why random people on the internet like us should just step back and let the experts deal with it.

(And also, the vaccines work. Big surprise.)

I remember the word Cofounder from biostats. Thats literally the end of my knowledge there.

[O.city]

Just a heads up for those not immune, if you get Covid, get to the monoclonal AB's quick. The sooner you can get them, the better. Once you're into the illness, it's not going to be as helpful.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by O.city

Ridiculous how?

There are not a lot of unvaxxed people left in Israel ages 50+. They are getting severely sick at a much higher rate than the vaxxed.

But then I realized the context that only 0.1% of the 185k unvaxxed were severely ill

So I retract "ridiculous". The vaccine shows good effectiveness vs the virus for the 50+ age range for those that do get sick severely.

[O.city]

Great chart of how the perceived decline in vaccine effectiveness might be driven, largely or in part, by Simpson's Paradox*

*ie: in which efficacy vs. hospitalization for specific age cohorts is actually MUCH HIGHER than efficacy for the total population pic.twitter.com/5PJPWK3GJq

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) August 19, 2021

[lawrenceRaider]

Originally Posted by O.city

Great chart of how the perceived decline in vaccine effectiveness might be driven, largely or in part, by Simpson's Paradox*

*ie: in which efficacy vs. hospitalization for specific age cohorts is actually MUCH HIGHER than efficacy for the total population pic.twitter.com/5PJPWK3GJq

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) August 19, 2021

Fantastic example. Thanks!

[O.city]

So I'm way out of my element with this statistical stuff. I have no damn clue how to quantify any of it.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

So I'm way out of my element with this statistical stuff. I have no damn clue how to quantify any of it.

It makes my brain hurt.

[MIAdragon]

The GF who’s wildly healthy is JUST starting to feel better. She wasn’t never had to go to the ER but was bed ridden for almost a week.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

So I'm way out of my element with this statistical stuff. I have no damn clue how to quantify any of it.

Originally Posted by TLO

It makes my brain hurt.

↓

Originally Posted by DaFace

In short, this is an example of why random people on the internet like us should just step back and let the experts deal with it.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

....many thousands of doctors, scientists and other experts, including the inventor of the technology, have the same concerns.....

Originally Posted by dirk digler

....For me personally, I would rather put my trust in the science than take a chance with Covid. No one knows the long term consequences of that either.

Originally Posted by lawrenceRaider

....ETA: Robert Whatshisname isn't really the inventory of mRNA despite his recent claims. He was involved in the early, early research and that's about it. In fact he or one of his associates altered Wiki to add his name to it right before he started making the claims with no backup. Then the Wiki entry was reverted to what it was before on a fact check, and then he claimed people were trying to silence him by deleting his name.

As I'm reading through this thread, I just have many more questions. Where is the link (proof) of thousands of Drs. and scientists who have concerns?

And the wiki thing puts a new perspective on things, certainly. Then again, who's to say that his claim that they were trying to silence him is not true? You're choosing who to believe either way and that could be wrong.

In the end, I kind of agree with what dirk said here. I weighed the odds and it seems that my odds were going to be better by getting the vaccine, and so I did. Now that doesn't mean that I still don't have some concerns about long term effects, of which we really don't know at this time.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

This shit is so confounding to me.

People used to say they weren't scared of covid because it had a .2% mortality rate. (count me as one of them)

Now they point at a possible .0006% mortality rate for the vaccine and call it dangerous.

I know hundreds of vaccinated people if you count employees here, none have gotten severely ill from it or had anything but side effects making them feel like shit.

I know of 6 unvaccinated employees hospitalized since July 1, 3 in ICU at one point and a friend who almost died of it at 30 years old. That's 7-0 keeping score.

I mean the data is right in front of me yet I keep seeing people thinking shit that's just crazy. A friend of mine calls the vaccine the "poison death shot".

That was also part of my thinking. I have known a lot of people who got vaccinated and have had no lasting side effects. Admittedly, that made it easier for me to decide to get vaccinated. Could it cause issues months or years down the road? Maybe. Maybe not. We just don't really know. But then again, the long lasting effects of Covid could do that, as well. There is just a lot that we don't know right now. I made a decision that my best odds were to get this vaccine.