***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

The blame game has multiple layers.

Hospitals trusted to budget / plan based on the data they were provided. In March they were told vaccinated people would not get sick or transmit the virus. They were also basing it on the RO of 2.5 / 4 that the original strain / alpha had.

Here comes delta and screwed everyone.

Vaccines don’t stop transmission (thankfully they curve serious illness)
R0 of 8 comes along sweeping up what didn’t get sick in the past 12 months
Staffing Burnt out
Staffing Fired due to mandates

The influx is the same as it was last summer, they had a backlog of people that were put on a waiting list for selective surgery.

It’s a combination of things - there is plenty of blame to go around.

Science changes, data changes… and we acted like the vaccines would be a magical bullet. It was sold that way all the way to the President (not political as it didn’t matter who the prez was) and that messaging killed us.

You see, that's the thing...the vaccine *has* been a magic bullet especially when you look at it in terms of hospitalizations and death.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

The blame game has multiple layers.

Hospitals trusted to budget / plan based on the data they were provided. In March they were told vaccinated people would not get sick or transmit the virus. They were also basing it on the RO of 2.5 / 4 that the original strain / alpha had.

Here comes delta and screwed everyone.

Vaccines don’t stop transmission (thankfully they curve serious illness)
R0 of 8 comes along sweeping up what didn’t get sick in the past 12 months
Staffing Burnt out
Staffing Fired due to mandates

The influx is the same as it was last summer, they had a backlog of people that were put on a waiting list for selective surgery.

It’s a combination of things - there is plenty of blame to go around.

Science changes, data changes… and we acted like the vaccines would be a magical bullet. It was sold that way all the way to the President (not political as it didn’t matter who the prez was) and that messaging killed us.

Are you suggesting if hospitals knew there was going to be another surge, they would have prepared for it and would have been better off?

[Katipan]

Originally Posted by jdubya

This is a cool "what if" that has nothing to do with reality.

If you are a fan of punishing unstable covid patients because they weren't vaccinated, fine.

You've chucked homie that works at an unsafe job into the same pile as someone who decides to smoke.

Not sure I care for your triage either.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by jdubya

We are not in DC where I would expect this response but good Lord man...this is significantly unintelligent. That is what you think I was trying to say? Really?

I am not the one trying to equate motorcycle accidents to COVID patients when it comes to their burden on the medical system.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

You see, that's the thing...the vaccine *has* been a magic bullet especially when you look at it in terms of hospitalizations and death.

The only way a vaccine can work is if people take it

[emaw1979]

My brother-in-law and sister-in-law have been diagnosed with COVID. Their 1-year-old has been diagnosed with RSV.

Our toddler had RSV when he was around the same age and I couldn't imagine being sick at the same time with COVID. We had some sleepless nights in a recliner while he slept on our chests.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Katipan

You've chucked homie that works at an unsafe job into the same pile as someone who decides to smoke.

Not sure I care for your triage either.

Yeah, it's not some made up hypothetical game of faceless/nameless patients. People are already being 'punished', it's just that IMO it's far better to at least have some sort of criteria beyond "you don't get a bed because you'll probably die sooner", because healthcare in America isn't a triage tent.

We're currently living in a world where cancer patient goes home early because someone didn't get vaccinated, yet the flip side is other people have been waiting in line for elective surgeries for over a year, but unvaccinated people who can't breathe on their own need vents.

End of the day, we can all take sides on an internet message board and fall asleep at night.... but, whether you empathize or simply realize we're all one car accident or heart attack or "hold my beer" away from needing a hospital bed that may not be available, I would think everyone can agree this is ****ed up.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Are you suggesting if hospitals knew there was going to be another surge, they would have prepared for it and would have been better off?

100%

The whole point of the lockdowns in 2020 was to allow the hospitals to not be overwhelmed by allowing them time to ramp up and deal with the amount of people they were having to take care of.

A lot of the deaths were due to overwhelming the hospitals as they did not have the capacity to handle surge.

This surge isn’t even as bad as winter and the hospitals can’t handle it? More then 70% of the adult population is vaccinated at this time also.

[LTL]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

100%

The whole point of the lockdowns in 2020 was to allow the hospitals to not be overwhelmed by allowing them time to ramp up and deal with the amount of people they were having to take care of.

A lot of the deaths were due to overwhelming the hospitals as they did not have the capacity to handle surge.

This surge isn’t even as bad as winter and the hospitals can’t handle it? More then 70% of the adult population is vaccinated at this time also.

Staffing is a major issue within the hospitals. You can have the space and resources to take care of people but but if you don't have the staffing it won't matter. Nurses and support staff have left the hospital for a variety reasons. More are still leaving n when the void that they have left is bigger than what you have to fill it it creates problems.

2 or 3 months ago their was a tweet posted from mercy hospital in Springfield from the CEO basically begging for help from nurses respiratory therapist n other staff. Our CEO went on TV doing basically the same thing. We have beds sitting empty because their isn't the staff to open them.

[loochy]

supply and demand


Want more staff? Pay them more. There WILL be a tipping point where people will be willing to work. If the hospitals are as full as they say they are, money should be flying into the system.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by loochy

supply and demand


Want more staff? Pay them more. There WILL be a tipping point where people will be willing to work. If the hospitals are as full as they say they are, money should be flying into the system.

Depends on your hospital systems, I assume hospitals dealing with high COVID volumes are probably making less money than they would with high turnover elective surgeries. It also takes time to train some random nurse into an ICU nurse and programs (schools)are set up for normal demand for nurses. For some extra money isn’t work the stress or risks.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by loochy

supply and demand


Want more staff? Pay them more. There WILL be a tipping point where people will be willing to work. If the hospitals are as full as they say they are, money should be flying into the system.

Same goes for all these low paying jobs that are going unfilled. It's a general strike.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

100%

The whole point of the lockdowns in 2020 was to allow the hospitals to not be overwhelmed by allowing them time to ramp up and deal with the amount of people they were having to take care of.

A lot of the deaths were due to overwhelming the hospitals as they did not have the capacity to handle surge.

This surge isn’t even as bad as winter and the hospitals can’t handle it? More then 70% of the adult population is vaccinated at this time also.

Originally Posted by LTL

Staffing is a major issue within the hospitals. You can have the space and resources to take care of people but but if you don't have the staffing it won't matter. Nurses and support staff have left the hospital for a variety reasons. More are still leaving n when the void that they have left is bigger than what you have to fill it it creates problems.

2 or 3 months ago their was a tweet posted from mercy hospital in Springfield from the CEO basically begging for help from nurses respiratory therapist n other staff. Our CEO went on TV doing basically the same thing. We have beds sitting empty because their isn't the staff to open them.

Yeah, that was my thought as well... the question becomes, had they known another surge was coming, what could have been done?

There's the issue of equipment and space, which seems minor compared to staff. But then... does every hospital in the country prepare? There were already mask shortages and other shortages last year.... ramping up production with another potential surge could be possible, but to what extent?

And even if you have more staff that require tons of training, you still need doctors and nurses.

Not to say you're completely wrong... i'm sure there are things that could be done to prepare and maybe some hospitals went back to normal while others were still cautious. And it's not like we're talking about building a bunch of new buildings or thousands of beds... yet, some areas are having to turn parking garage space into ICU units.

Definitely a complicated issue made worse by pre-Covid burnout, rural hospitals going under, staffing issues, etc.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by eDave

Same goes for all these low paying jobs that are going unfilled. It's a general strike.

Out of the 100 or so nurses that work at my hospital I would maybe guess less than 10 would have the skill set and maybe less than 5 would have the qualifications to work in a large hospital ICU , our ER nurses bring in 110-125k a year it would take a significant bump for them to consider a change to an even higher stress environment during a pandemic.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Not to say you're completely wrong... i'm sure there are things that could be done to prepare and maybe some hospitals went back to normal while others were still cautious. And it's not like we're talking about building a bunch of new buildings or thousands of beds... yet, some areas are having to turn parking garage space into ICU units.

Definitely a complicated issue made worse by pre-Covid burnout, rural hospitals going under, staffing issues, etc.

This is 100% complicated, with 100 different reasons as to why it could of been handled better. My point that I’m trying to make is that we don’t hear about all of this, it’s not even talked about. All that is talked about is that the unvaxxed caused this, even though they are now in the minority.

I’m also arm chair, day after quarterbacking - so it’s obvious now while I do think the messaging in March was unicorns and rainbows with the vaccine rollout. While 70% didn’t happen by July 4th, we are there now.

I also don’t think firing nurses / doctors or staff was smart either when you lack staffing due to 100 other reasons (burn out, sick, etc) but what do I know.

School boards still have outdated policies regarding vaccinated teachers and students and those haven’t been updated. We are in for another long winter I’m afraid. We could all be vaccinated by then and I don’t think it will matter, everyone will need their 3rd dose or 4th if we are doing it every 5 months (based on Israel’s and the administration’s conversation on Friday)

CDC and the WHO are not even on the same page when it comes to boosters so it will be interesting how this gets handled.