*** 2022 Mock Draft Megathread ***

[duncan_idaho]

Got a mock? Pop it in this thread. Include a picture if you want. Explain your reasoning if you want. Talk about your crushes... if you want.

See a good "pro" mock? Link it up in here and I'll add it to the OP.

Duncan's latest mock

Site
The Draft Network This mock seems to be the most accurate site right now, so I go with this one. I don't pay for it, so no trades here. The plan is for this to be my last mock. I'm going to do it differently, though. I'm running 3 scenarios, and eschewing the 7th round picks, which I would use on a big swings on athleticism and potential. Lotto tickets. James Houston IV is one of them. Note: I used PFF to simulate the trade action, then manually backed up in the 2 "trade" drafts to make selections. Laborious, but gives you best of both worlds, IMO. I think PFF's trade tool is the best, but its board is whack.

Draft slot: 29

Scenario 1: The Chiefs sit pat with their picks and don't make any moves at all. Seems the least likely, but hey...
1.29 | George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue.
1.30 | Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota.
2.50 | George Pickens, WR, Georgia.
2.62 | Travis Jones, DT, UConn.
3.94 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State.
3.103(Comp for Poles) | Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State.
4.121 | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati.
4.135 | Velus Jones, Jr., Tennessee

Scenario 1 Debrief:
So, sitting and waiting to see what comes to me was pretty successful here. The Chiefs FLOOD the defensive line with reinforcements, including at least 1 ready-made starter and two guys who should - at minimum - be in 50/50 rotations at their spots by year end. The Chiefs still get a big outside WR with tantalizing potential. They add some crazy athletic small-school guys, and a mid-round corner who just fits in the system, and a dynamo return man who might be more at WR.

This looks pretty good. Though I have a hard time believing Karlaftis just falls to 29...

Scenario 2: The Chiefs get aggressive and trade up. But for what? In this case, let's go wide receiver. In this run, Kansas City trades picks 29, 62, and a 2023 3rd to Houston for pick 13 and a 2023 4th, because they ARE as obsessed with a WR as people expect and are aggressive to go get him when the board falls right. They then trade BACK from 30 to 35 with the Jets, also including pick 94 in order to get 69 back. Then, last but not least, KC gets aggressive one more time and moves 103 and 121 for 85 from New England, leaving the Chiefs with 6 picks in the first four rounds.
1.13 | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama.
2.35 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State.
2.50 | Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor.
3.69 | Zachary Carter, DT, Florida.
3.85 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
4.135 | Jaylen Watson, CB, Washington State

Scenario 2 Debrief:
I'm not saying KC should do this or even that I think they will (more on that in a few minutes). I'm just saying, man, what will it look like if the Chiefs get aggressive a few times AND are doing the big move for a WR? In this scenario, KC obviously believes Williams is a game-changer at the NFL level and is taking a small 2022 hit to make 2023+ better. The defensive line still gets reinforced, but the reinforcements are all a shade worse than the sit-pat draft option. If you like Kingsley Enagbare or Josh PAscal more than Thomas, I get it and wouldn't quibble at one of those guys instead. Logan Hall, too. Pitre is such a screaming perfect fit for KC's D. Carter is a great physical talent you can dream about coaching up. Williams' utility is known and gives them a true RE option to pair against their higher-drafted bigger guy. Watson is a developmental corner.

I don't love it. I think Pitre makes the secondary a lot better and makes it easier to move on from Thornhill after 22. They have improved the defensive rotation, though one of the DEs would need to outperform expectations in Year 1 to get it to the same level as Scenario 1. In all, giving up the 2 extra selections in the top 4 rounds hurts the depth you can build, but I think it's more like what KC will do.

Scenario 3: Same movements as #2
1.13 | Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State.
2.35 | Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State.
2.50 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
3.69 | Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati.
3.85 | Martin Emerson, CB, Miss. State.
4.135 | Braxton Jones, T, Southern Utah

Scenario 3 Debrief:
This is the type of situation where I see KC paying the price to move up... if Johnson falls this far, I'd be shocked if KC isn't aggressively moving up. With this run, I take a risky but high upside WR in Watson (but you could sub in Pickens or Jahan Dotson or Tolbert or Metchie or Skyy Moore or really any of those tier 2 guys here if you prefer). The secondary reinforcements aren't flashy but are good fits.

In this one, I think the plan has to become adding either another safety or corner in free agency before the season. Ideally, it's someone who can handle the slot and let Sneed thriver on the outside. The DL gets a major boost and some potential star power in Johnson and Williams, and the OL gets another T option and potential long-term starter to develop.

Having completed the exercise and looking at the scenariors, I like the first one the most. But it really does come down to how the board breaks.

Older mocks

Spoiler!

Draft slot: 29

The picks
1.29 | Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan. With Hill, the Chiefs upgrade their nickelback situation, upgrade at outside CB (with Sneed playing out there full time), and improve their S situation moving forward. Spags gets a new swiss army knife to play with.
1.30 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State. Thomas fits nicely for KC and was the best combination of upside and floor at DE at this pick. I take Thomas over David Ojabo, which is probably a zig compared to current CP draft group thought process, but I've grown concerned that Ojabo isn't versatile enough to take the risk he loses just a touch of the athleticism that makes him so good/dangerous.
2.50 | Travis Jones, DT, UConn. Big drop off at DT in this draft after this. Trying to improve for 2022 while also setting KC up to potentially make a tough move on from Chris Jones.

2.62 | John Metchie III, WR, Alabama. But Duncan! What about WR. I waited. On purpose. Metchie was a top 20 pick before he hurt his knee, and I love his fit in an Andy Reid offense. He's fast. He's slippery after the catch. He can work out of the slot or outside, and he's good at separating at the top of the route. He just seems like a perfect combination of skill set and value here.

3.94 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss. People I respect keep saying this draft board is more accurate than the others. So I'm leaning on that here. I am not sure I buy Williams making it to the end of round 3, but if he does it obviously could be a huge boon for KC.

3.103(Comp for Poles) | Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati. You know what I just said about Williams? You can say all the same about Pierce. Being able to pair a big WR with speed with Metchie would go a long way in setting KC up for 2023 and beyond.

4.121 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sammie State. McCollum's combine turned heads. He needs development, but I love the clay to mold here.
4.135 | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati. I double dip at CB as well.

Picks in the 7th: Big swings on athleticism and potential. Lotto tickets.

Site
Pro Football Network

Draft slot: 32

The picks
1.30 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State. Thomas fits nicely for KC and was the best combination of upside and floor at DE at this pick. I eschewed DB selections to shore up the DL now and in the future.

2.62 | Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia. There is likely no way this happens, but I couldn't help myself. I would sprint to the podium and run over small children to cement this, if possible.

3.94 | George Pickens, WR, Georgia. This one seems unlikely also, but I could see Pickens slipping a little due to his lack of productivity and injury concerns. Me? I just add Carl's boy to my squad and keep it rolling.

3.103(Comp for Poles) | Nick Cross, S, Maryland. Would be banking on S slipping, per usual, in this draft. But Cross is a nice all-around fit for KC and complement to Thornhill.

4.134 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sammie State. McCollum's combine turned heads. He needs development, but I love the clay to mold here.

6.166 | Pierre Strong, RB, South Dakota State. I play Veach and trade up to take a RB I really like.
7.241 | Velus Jones, Jr., Tennessee. He's old and has a weird college track record, but I like Jones as a return guy, at least.

7.260 | Chris Steele, CB, South Carolina. Just another DB stab. Good size and measureables, and from a school that has rolled out a lot of NFL talent at this position.
Site
Site
Pro Football Focus

Draft slot: 32

The picks
1.32 | Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas. Burks is a really big, physical, explosive and versatile receiver who can be used in a lot of different ways in KC. He's such a freak they should be able to have strong packages for him while he gets up to speed on the playbook, and is a potential monster down the road. Jumbo Deebo potential. I pass on DEs like Cameron Thomas and Drake Jackson thinking I should have decent options at DE at 2.64...

2.64 | trade. And I'm wrong. All the edges worth the pick are gone. So I trade down with Seattle for 74, 106, and 151

3.74 | Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington. Gordon is an absolute athletic freak and would give the Chiefs two of those in the CB room (Sneed being the other). Huge upside pick who should be able to contribute immediately.

3.96 | Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota. This is my week spot in this draft, I can tell you already. I take Mafe, who has good size and athletic traits and potential. But he needs a lot of development... going to have to address the spot in free agency.

3.103(Comp for Poles) | Smoke Monday, S, Auburn. I'm going to need to save my FA dollars for DE, which makes landing a guy I can play as the box safety from day 1 a good choice here. Monday is a big guy with good athletic traits who should add speed and physicality in the role Dan Sorenson has been filling

4.106 | James Cook, RB, Georgia. Cook has proven to be an explosive playmaker as a receiver, and has fresh legs after being part of a very full RB room at UGA. Dalvin's little bro could offer some major upside from this pick and would add some needed explosiveness to the RB, especially on 3rd downs.

4.134 | Kellen Diesch, T, Arizona State. Looking for a cheap swing tackle, so I take a swing with Diesch.

5.151 | Isaiah Thomas, DE, Oklahoma. .Let's throw some numbers at the DE spot. Thomas, again, has the size and athletic traits you want at DE. He was fairly productive at Oklahoma and could unlock more production with pro coaching and dev.

6.192 | Jelani Woods, TE, Virginia. Woods is a really large, freak-athlete sleeper prospect at TE. At 6-7 and with good speed, he is a high-upside play who might not make the roster.

Pro Football Network

Draft slot: 29

The picks
1.31 | TRADE with Jacksonville for 2.40 and 2.75. (Another trade happened at 96 but I fotget the exact details on it now)
2.40Drake Jackson, DE, USC. Jackson is a versatile edge defender who can play effectively anywhere from 260-275 pounds. He's explosive and quick and diverse, and he would pump much-needed youth and pass rush ability into the Chiefs DE unit.

2.61 | Romeo Doubs, WR, Nevada. At least on this site, this pick is a solid spot to try to address WR. I switch it up and try to shamelessly make kccrow happy by taking someone he turned me on to. Has size, speed, can stack DBs down the field, and has had success working in the slot or on the outside.

3.75 | Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State. I double-down on DE in this mock, and land a super athletic DE from a program that has been churning out athletic freaks. With Ebiketie and Jackson, my DE room is now younger and dynamic and has a pair of potentially studly bookends.

4.99 | Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming. If you're still pining about Logan Wilson, you'll like this pick. Muma's profile is very similar to Wilson's - he projects as a 3-down LB who fills downhill well. Use him as a SAM. Use him as a WILL. Hell, you can probably use him in the middle if you want.

4.131 | Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa. Smith's stock is starting to rise and he hasn't officially declared, but if he has, this would be an awesome set up. Smith is large and athletic enough to be a quality swing tackle and good starter at RT with some development time.

5.157 | Tariq Castro-Fields, CB, Penn State. Castro-Fields is a good-enough athlete with really long arms - would be a nice outside corner fit for the Chiefs and, with his length, would be a nice asset to deal with 9 routes to big receivers.

7.232 | Bubba Bolden, S, Miami. I think his ranking is way, way off on this site. But if he's there in real life, I would rush to podium and add a nice SS/third safety prospect. Would fit nicely in the role Sorenson has been filling.

7.249 | Peyton Hendershot, TE, Indiana. This seems like a safe spot to roll the dice on a really talented player with some off-field questions, if you get through interviews and assume he's solid. Could be an absolute steal if he keeps his nose clean.

Site
Pro Football Network

Draft slot: 31

The picks
1.31 | TRADE with Jacksonville for 2.33 and 3.72.
2.33Drake Jackson, DE, USC. Jackson is a versatile edge defender who can play effectively anywhere from 260-275 pounds. He's explosive and quick and diverse, and he would pump much-needed youth and pass rush ability into the Chiefs DE unit.

2.63 | Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama. I take a chance with a small-school guy we haven't discussed much here. Tolbert has nice size (6-3) but also is reported as having the ability to run precise routes, stack DBs down the field, and win with quickness and speed or size and toughness.

3.72 | Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington. This is a Dorsey-type pick. Gordon is a crazy good athlete and in reality may test so well he jumps into the 1st. With him on board, the Chiefs would have a hyper athletic, versatile outside CB to groom behind Sneed and Fenton.

4.133 | Isaiah Pola-Mao, S, USC. Troy Polamalu's nephew is also a hard-hitting safety with good coverage skills and range. But he's a 1/2 foot taller than Polamalu was. Yeah, that's right. We're talking about a 6-4 safety who moves like a smaller guy. Intriguing fit for the Chiefs' box safety/dime LB role currently filled by Dan Sorenson.

7.231 | Josh Paschal, DE, Kentucky. Paschal is adored by a really good defensive staff, and offers size, tougheness and effort. Good rotational piece with a fairly high floor.

7.251 | Jean Delance, T, Florida. This Florida product has the athletic traits you'd want from a starting-level tackle. Purely a developmental piece who could blossom with better training and coaching.
Site
The Draft Network

Draft slot: 25

The picks
1.26 | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabame. I wanted to explore WR options with the Chiefs' first pick after discussions this week about fits in the late 1st. Williams was there, and his explosiveness and smoothness are intriguing. I'm slightly concerned about his ability to beat man press coverage, but he has the goods to do it, especially with the attention he'd receive as the #3 option.

2.58 | Kingsley Enagbare, DE, South Carolina. The South Carolina edge has been up and down this season but is a physical presence with a lot of upside. I see some similarities to Chris Jones in that he has the traits and he could really take off with good coaching and consistent effort.

3.89 | Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State. Really just thinking BPA here. Walker might need some seasoning before he's ready to start at OT in the NFL, but the Chiefs can give him that time. Could be a long-term answer at LT or RT in Reid's system.

4.119 | Markqueese Ball, S, Florida A&M. Big-time athlete at a HBC who transferred there and is a little under the radar. I see him playing the Sorenson dime "box" S/LB role initially and eventually transitioning to a SS role.

7.224 | DeJahn Warren, CB, Jackson State. CB with the physical traits the Chiefs seek, has nice size and versatility and is a physical tackler.

7.244 | Chris Rodriguez, RB, Kentucky. I've talked about him before, but I like his toughness, size, and contact balance. He can break tackles and has good short-area burst, which would fit nicely in KC. Has some promise as a receiver but would need to progress (hasn't been thrown the ball a lot in college).
Site
NFL Mock Draft Database

Draft slot: 25

The picks
1.25 | trade down to 30 with Green Bay. I get here and don't love my options. Either taking a position that's going to sit for a while (OT) or that is lower value/luxury (LB). So I move down to 30 with Green Bay, receiving 1.30, 4.132, 5.172, and a 2023 4th.

1.30 | David Ojabo, DE, Michigan. Myjai Sanders also available. I take Ojabo because he's a more explosive and versatile athlete, with more long-term upside.

2.58 | Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan. I get a little stuck here. John Metchie II is the best WR on the board, but I am scared off by his struggles with press coverage and creating separation on the outside this year.

3.89 | Romeo Doubs, WR, Nevada. My gamble in round 2 pays off, and the WR I covet is still on the board at my next pick. I like Doubs' size and explosiveness as a big play guy. He also has worked in the slot as well as outside at Nevada and had success in both roles. I also REALLY consider S Bubba Bolden, Miami, at this spot. But decide to roll the dice and see if I can snag a S with one of my 4ths.

4.128 | Bubba Bolden, S, Miami. Now, I have no clue if Bolden's stock actually stays this low. Tykee Smith, S, Georgia, and Smoke Monday, S, Auburn are also available and gains some consideration from me. But looking at the DB depth here, I'm confident I can find one of those 2 or a promising CB in this range.

4.132 | Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse. Williams is a good athlete who also is a physical tackler with a lot of energy and versatility. Nice scheme fit for the Chiefs and a good "clay" for Madison and co. to mold (Josh Jabe went in the top 80 in this mock. Sad).

5.172 | Zonovan Knight, RB, N.C. State. Knight is a roll of the dice at RB. He's got a second gear and good contact balance. Good return man, as well. Could be a really nice change of pace/complement to Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

7.240 | Mike Rose, LB, Iowa State. Rose is a smart guy with physical limitations, but he's good coming downhill and fighting through traffic and incredibly smart/savvy. Sounds like a perfect SAM LB to me.

7.245 | Kolby Harvell-Peel, S, Oklahoma State. Harvell-Peel is a good athlete and has some versatility, at a school that generally produces good secondary personnel.

Draft recap

I go risky in this one with my round 2 pick - taking a stab at a guy I believe can become a franchise LT with a year of quality NFL coaching. I like the upside I've added in this look at DE and the depth in the secondary (immediate Sorenson replacement who is a potential long-term SS; development CB; versatile S) and am really excited about the potential of Ojabo. Rose is someone I can plug in at SAM and get good initial production from for practically nothing (Just have to convince Spagnuolo not to overexpose him by trying to use him as a MIKE!). I really like the explosiveness of Romeo Doubs and Zonovan Knight.

I'd still come out of this draft needing to add a veteran DE (Melvin Ingram, hello) or 2 and needing a good veteran #2 WR while Doubs gets up to speed. But I think it keeps reloading at key spots.

In 2023, if Raimann is ready to handle LT like I project, I can now afford to move on from Orlando Brown at LT, or move him to the right side and handle my tackle positions for the forseeable future.

[Stryker]

Curious question, what if Mahomes has input on who he would like WR wise in the draft? Or any player for that matter? Do you think he has an input in the draft is my question? Would Veach consider his thoughts? Like I said, just curious on your thoughts.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Stryker

Curious question, what if Mahomes has input on who he would like WR wise in the draft? Or any player for that matter? Do you think he has an input in the draft is my question? Would Veach consider his thoughts? Like I said, just curious on your thoughts.

I'm sure they talk. I mean it would be weird if they didn't.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I'm sure they talk. I mean it would be weird if they didn't.

I agree but like I said, was just curious.

[kcbubb]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

No way man. The smart move is to trade 2-3 three of our picks to move up in the top 15 for a WR with a torn ACL.

Absolutely. Go for the home run instead of picking two or three jag wrs or busts. We may have a shot to get a legitimate game breaker at wr in the draft with trading up about 10 spots with a 3rd, 4th and a 4th next year. Jameson’s gonna miss 8 games! So what, get a game breaking talent rather than pick a couple extra average players. Jameson is our best shot for an elite talent. You want to pick jalen tolbert in the second. Give me a break. He barely gets separation against Georgia southern. We can get pretty good players in free agency cheap. Go get a great wr in the draft.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Stryker

Curious question, what if Mahomes has input on who he would like WR wise in the draft? Or any player for that matter? Do you think he has an input in the draft is my question? Would Veach consider his thoughts? Like I said, just curious on your thoughts.

Mahomes got input into the Clyde pick, so I’m sure he will have input on picks this year as well. To some extent, at least.

[duncan_idaho]

The more I think about it, the more I think there IS a WR I would be cool with trading up for.

And it isn't Jameson Williams.

It's Chris Olave.

[BossChief]

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!

29. George Karlaftis EDGE Purdue
30. David Ojabo EDGE Michigan
50. Chad Muma LB Wyoming
62. Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan
94. Christian Watson WR North Dakota State
103. Mario Goodrich CB Clemson
121. Chris Hinton DT Michigan
135. Zyon McCollum CB Sam Houston State
233. Scott Nelson S Wisconsin
243. Kana'i Mauga LB USC
251. Nasir Greer S Wake Forest
259. Ali Fayad EDGE Western Michigan

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

The more I think about it, the more I think there IS a WR I would be cool with trading up for.

And it isn't Jameson Williams.

It's Chris Olave.

Why and what are you willing to give up to go get him?

I guess I don’t see a huge difference between him and a guy like Skyy and for what it would cost to get Olave, you might get Skyy and a Sam Williams/Cam Thomas…so I don’t see the value in moving up…but I can be convinced otherwise.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Absolutely. Go for the home run instead of picking two or three jag wrs or busts. We may have a shot to get a legitimate game breaker at wr in the draft with trading up about 10 spots with a 3rd, 4th and a 4th next year. Jameson’s gonna miss 8 games! So what, get a game breaking talent rather than pick a couple extra average players. Jameson is our best shot for an elite talent. You want to pick jalen tolbert in the second. Give me a break. He barely gets separation against Georgia southern. We can get pretty good players in free agency cheap. Go get a great wr in the draft.

Man I'm not sure how many times you have to be shown in how many different ways that elite WR's come from more than top 15 overall picks in order for you to digest the information. Lemme give you just one concrete example:

Davante Adams was a 2nd round pick (#53 overall.) He was, for what, a week? The highest paid WR in history.

He was the 9th WR taken in his draft. He went after Sammy Watkins, and after Kelvin Benjamin, and Landry, and Jordan Matthews, and Cooks, and Marquis Lee, and Beckham, and Mike Evans. (The next season, the current highest paid WR in football would be drafted in the 5th round by our KC Chiefs.)

Some of those guys who went before Adams have had really nice careers; but is he a JAG because they got picked earlier? Can you believe Kelvin ****ing Benjamin was deemed a better prospect than Davante Adams? He was. It's true. Can you imagined if you traded UP for Jordan Matthews instead of just staying put and taking Adams?

Lots of talent in this draft. The talking heads don't know dick. Mel Kiper is wrong more than he's right. None of these guys really know for sure how these kids will work out, and so much of it is SITUATIONAL.

So I wouldn't get too hell bent on "OMG WE HAVE TO REPLACE TYREEK HILL!"

No we don't. We need to draft lots of good football players and develop them. We do that, and we'll be fine.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Why and what are you willing to give up to go get him?

I guess I don’t see a huge difference between him and a guy like Skyy and for what it would cost to get Olave, you might get Skyy and a Sam Williams/Cam Thomas…so I don’t see the value in moving up…but I can be convinced otherwise.

I'm 100% in agreement with you.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I'm 100% in agreement with you.

I don’t know anywhere near as much as some here about the scheme similarities of what we do in KC under Andy and what some of these college WRs have been asked to do and how much they can already do to make them able to play sooner than later. Which is a moderately big deal considering the perceived difficulty in learning our system.

Huge playbook. Sight adjustments. Reading defense on the fly to find spots in zones. Ability to run the whole route tree with precision. Beating press. Eye discipline. Footwork. Physicality. Football IQ.

Olave played for a big time school, so it’s possible his value is a lot more than Skyy because he can play year one where a guy like Skyy may take a year or more to consistently get on the field. I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the difference between the players, but I’m going to assume the reason Andy and Brett got Juju and MVS is because they see this WR class as talented but needing work to realize potential.

[kcbubb]

I am not explaining myself well. Let me say it this way. WRs bust or are jags often. And rarely produce in the first year. Can you get them late? Of course. But I feel like the odds of jameson doing well are high with what kind of wrs have done well with mahomes. Pm likes speed and separation. So, if you have a guy that you feel is a fit, go get him. The numbers prove it out. This article demonstrates my point. This shows production of wrs in the first year. With Jameson’s skill set and the training from bama with waddle, Devonta, jeudy & Ridley all doing well. I feel like jameson has the highest probability of success and its worth it to trade for him. I believe he will have success like waddle or Devonta smith in his first year. You guys thinking that we draft two guys late and they help us next year, that won’t happen. The numbers show that more than 95% of the time rookies won’t be a wr2 or better in their first year. See below.

https://www.ffastronauts.com/amp/rookie-wr-bust-rate

Number of wide receivers drafted by year
2019 - 25
2018 - 32
2017 - 31
2016 - 31
Total 2016 - 2019: 119
Number of drafted wide receivers performing as WR2 or better in their first year
2019 - 1
2018 - 0
2017 - 1
2016 - 1
The rookie wide receiver bust rate shows how likely an owner is to draft a rookie wide receiver that doesn’t perform better than WR2 or better.
Rookie wide receiver bust rate by year.
2019 - 24 / 25 = 0.96 x 100 = 96%
In 2019, 96% of the rookie wide receivers were busts and did not score as a WR2 or better.
2018 - 32 / 32 = 1 x 100 = 100%
In 2018, 100% of rookie wide receivers were busts and none scored as a WR2 or better.
2017 - 30 / 31 = 0.9677 x 100 = 96.77%
In 2017, 96.77% of the rookie wide receivers were busts and did not score as a WR2 or better.
2016 - 30 / 31 = 0.9677 x 100 = 96.77%
In 2016, 96.77% of the rookie wide receivers were busts and did not score as a WR2 or better.
From 2016-2019 the average rookie wide receiver bust rate was
(96+100+96.77+96.77) / 4 = 97.39%
From the numbers, rookie wide receivers are not a safe bet for production in their first year. However, those that performed well in their first year carried WR2 production into their future years in most cases.

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Man I'm not sure how many times you have to be shown in how many different ways that elite WR's come from more than top 15 overall picks in order for you to digest the information. Lemme give you just one concrete example:

Davante Adams was a 2nd round pick (#53 overall.) He was, for what, a week? The highest paid WR in history.

He was the 9th WR taken in his draft. He went after Sammy Watkins, and after Kelvin Benjamin, and Landry, and Jordan Matthews, and Cooks, and Marquis Lee, and Beckham, and Mike Evans. (The next season, the current highest paid WR in football would be drafted in the 5th round by our KC Chiefs.)

Some of those guys who went before Adams have had really nice careers; but is he a JAG because they got picked earlier? Can you believe Kelvin ****ing Benjamin was deemed a better prospect than Davante Adams? He was. It's true. Can you imagined if you traded UP for Jordan Matthews instead of just staying put and taking Adams?

Lots of talent in this draft. The talking heads don't know dick. Mel Kiper is wrong more than he's right. None of these guys really know for sure how these kids will work out, and so much of it is SITUATIONAL.

So I wouldn't get too hell bent on "OMG WE HAVE TO REPLACE TYREEK HILL!"

No we don't. We need to draft lots of good football players and develop them. We do that, and we'll be fine.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Why and what are you willing to give up to go get him?

I guess I don’t see a huge difference between him and a guy like Skyy and for what it would cost to get Olave, you might get Skyy and a Sam Williams/Cam Thomas…so I don’t see the value in moving up…but I can be convinced otherwise.

Why: Because of his total polish and readiness. I think he gives you the highest floor and also has a ceiling near really anyone available in the draft. He's an excellent route runner with ideal athletic traits and good size.

What: One of KC's 3rds this year, and a 3rd next year.

That should be enough to get somewhere in the 20-ish range. I wouldn't go higher in terms of cost, but I wouldn't shake my fist about moving up for him.

All that said, though, I think KC can, will and likely should stay at 29 and 30.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Man I'm not sure how many times you have to be shown in how many different ways that elite WR's come from more than top 15 overall picks in order for you to digest the information. Lemme give you just one concrete example:

Davante Adams was a 2nd round pick (#53 overall.) He was, for what, a week? The highest paid WR in history.

He was the 9th WR taken in his draft. He went after Sammy Watkins, and after Kelvin Benjamin, and Landry, and Jordan Matthews, and Cooks, and Marquis Lee, and Beckham, and Mike Evans. (The next season, the current highest paid WR in football would be drafted in the 5th round by our KC Chiefs.)

Some of those guys who went before Adams have had really nice careers; but is he a JAG because they got picked earlier? Can you believe Kelvin ****ing Benjamin was deemed a better prospect than Davante Adams? He was. It's true. Can you imagined if you traded UP for Jordan Matthews instead of just staying put and taking Adams?

Lots of talent in this draft. The talking heads don't know dick. Mel Kiper is wrong more than he's right. None of these guys really know for sure how these kids will work out, and so much of it is SITUATIONAL.

So I wouldn't get too hell bent on "OMG WE HAVE TO REPLACE TYREEK HILL!"

No we don't. We need to draft lots of good football players and develop them. We do that, and we'll be fine.

You'll never get through to him.

I commented yesterday about it but notice that Bubb always talks about the WR's as "London, Olave, Dotson, Watson, and JAMESON".

It's obviously a draft crush thing because it's the only WR he consistently calls by his first name while all others are by last name. It's personal for him.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You'll never get through to him.

I commented yesterday about it but notice that Bubb always talks about the WR's as "London, Olave, Dotson, Watson, and JAMESON".

It's obviously a draft crush thing because it's the only WR he consistently calls by his first name while all others are by last name. It's personal for him.

He slept on it though and he's still in on Jameson.