Amnorix - it's time for the Hoodie Bowl

[Mile High Mania]

Yeah, yeah... this is a Chiefs' board, but I wanted to stir something up with the resident NE fan. I definitely like the location of this game and it has to be nothing but a solid advantage for Denver. If Dallas was favored by a FG, I'm guessing NE will be favored by at least 6-7 points.

It is what it is, but if Denver's defense plays like they have in the first 4 games... then it's going to be a close game and one that Denver could actually win. Can they go 5-0? That's a tall freaking order, but they're slowly getting more aggressive on offense and defensively, they're going to be tested for 4 straight quarters with NE.

The realists in me says Denver will not go 5-0... something has to give and Denver will lose a number of games this year, but I'm very optimistic about their chances of winning if they can put the pressure on Brady like they did with Romo.

Amnorix - what do you think of this matchup? Oh, and the rest of you can chime in as well... this will be an interesting chess match between teacher and pupil.

<<>>>

Stats are stats... but, here you go.

Total Offense
Patriots - 8th
Passing - 5th overall (273 ypg) / Rushing 18th (102 ypg)
Broncos - 9th
Passing - 17th overall (217 ypg) / Rushing 4th (148 ypg)

NE averages 21.8 points per game / DEN averages 19.8 points per game
NE ranked 3rd in TOP with 35+ minutes / DEN ranked 12th with 30+ minutes

Total Defense
Patriots - 8th
Passing - 8th (192 ypg) / 11th (95 ypg)
Broncos - 2nd
Passing - 3rd overall (162 yg) / 5th (77 ypg)

NE allowing 17.8 points per game / DEN allowing 6.5 points per game
NE ranked 14th with 8 sacks / DEN ranked #1 with 15 sacks

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

yeah, that's the issue. Dungy said the same thing last night. Not quite sure how the rule was written, but if it's any hit at or below the knees, as is likely, then what do you expect?

The helmet slaps in yesterday's Pats/Ravens game, by both players, were pretty damn soft. Neither one was a wind up and knock 'em out type of head shot.

I execpt the refs to properly protect the QB, which they didn't do yesterday at all. It's still football. Brady gets paid a bunch...and it's hazard pay.

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by Ari Chi3fs

The Broncos being 4-0 is a HUGE crock of shit.

How so?

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

Orton is a beast

THIS

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

My thoughts, randomly stated:

1. Patriots have always had trouble with Denver, epsecially at Mile High. With Shanahan, especially, but even before him with Dan Reeves.

It's the benefit of home field.. NE has the same when they play at home, which is where they played in 2008 when NE blasted Denver. But, both teams have had a face lift since that meeting.

Originally Posted by Amnorix

2. Patriots had TREMENDOUS turnover this past offseason. Much more than normal for any NFL team, much less one that went 11-5 last year. Lots of coaches left, not just McDaniels, and a number of senior players retired or were traded. Because of that, we started off very slow. Squeaking past the mediocre Bills, and losing to the Jets. But we're improving faster than any team in the NFL, as Brady gains more confidence and the defense learns each other's names (with Mayo out, only something like 4 starters otu of 11 returned on the defense). The Pats team that played the Ravens was exponentially better than the pathetic version that squeaked by Buffalo.

Denver has started slow too... with a new coaching staff, new offense and new 3-4 defense with 52% roster turnover. Defensively, there are 5 new starters and on offense... new QB, two new RBs... lots of new players, some you are familiar with as well. Massive turnover has touched both teams, but I don't think NE experienced more...

Originally Posted by Amnorix

3. Patriots defense is surprisingly good. If Mayo comes back, and he may be back this week as he seemingly participated in practice last Friday, then look out. This defense may be much better than anyone had anticipated before the season started.

I don't believe there are any injury concerns coming from yesterday's game for Denver, but the exact same applies for Denver. Nobody expected much from this team... there's a "Garbage" clip around here somewhere. 75% of Denver's secondary was churned for the better... new starters up front and at LB are proving to be fantastic additions so far.

Originally Posted by Amnorix

4. McDaniels is a good coach, and I have no doubt he has several very explicit thoughts on the weaknesses of the Patriots players. That said, it's not as if every other team in the NFL hasn't been attacking the Patriots' perceived weaknesses for years. You think Mangina didn't speak with other coaches and try to give them tips when he was HC of the NYJ? Haven't Patriots coaches left to go to other franchises before. Other players have moved on too -- Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Drew Bledsoe, the list is nearly endless.

Enh, too much is made of this in my opinion... yeah, McD has intimate knowledge of what NE does... maybe some things you can't pick up on film. But, it's not like Bill doesn't know how McD thinks... and McD is still a rookie HC, so I'm not going to suggest that McD has some jedi tricks ready to roll. Unless he's ready to unveil the league's next greatest phenomenon since the Wildcat.

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I think it will be a tough game, but I think the Patriots can and will take Marshall out of the game, as they did TO and Tony Gonzalez, while the Broncos will struggle to contain the rapidly improving Pats offense.

BUF and NE games were in NE... tough place for any young QBs to play and taking TO out of the mix hasn't proved to be that incredibly difficult this year. And, based on the games I've seen... McD has done a fine job of taking Marshall out of the mix, but the good thing is... they have several other very capable weapons and what I do like is that after this last game, a happy and productive Marshall will require special attention from the NE defense. But, to suggest taking TO out means they will take Marshall out... that's a bit dreamy. Again, we'll see.

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I admit that I don't believe, yet, that the Broncos are "real". In fact, the entire AFCW seems pretty unreal to me, and not in a good way.

I don't know if they're "real" yet either... but, I do know they've played damn well ... everyone was touting the vaunted Cowboys' rushing attack and they didn't break 80 yards. The game is in Denver... the place will be electric and at the very least, Denver's defense has played consistently well and while they break on a few plays, they stand tall when it matters. So far...

I could see a 20-17 ending to this one... I just hope that Denver does enough to be on the 20 side of that equation.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

I could see a 20-17 ending to this one... I just hope that Denver does enough to be on the 20 side of that equation.

I admit I'll be surprised if you can score 20 on the Patriots defense, and I'll be surprised if the Patriots can't score at least 21 against the Broncos.

I'll say 24-14 or somesuch, Patriots.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I admit I'll be surprised if you can score 20 on the Patriots defense, and I'll be surprised if the Patriots can't score at least 21 against the Broncos.

I'll say 24-14 or somesuch, Patriots.

We'll soon find out... NE is 3-0 on the home turf and they lost the one road game they played vs the Jets. The Bills put up 24 points against NE, so I'll take my chances with Denver hitting the 20 point mark in Denver.

[JD10367]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I admit I'll be surprised if you can score 20 on the Patriots defense, and I'll be surprised if the Patriots can't score at least 21 against the Broncos.

I'll say 24-14 or somesuch, Patriots.

I dunno, I can see Denver scoring 14 offensively, but add a few FGs and another Matt Light "Ole!" block that results in a fumble... It wouldn't shock me if the Broncos put up 24, 27 points.

The question, really, is going to be which Brady shows up (the off-target one of the first halves, or the more accurate Brady of the second halves). And which Patriots' O-line shows up. And whether or not the WRs catch all the passes or drop more of them. Depending on how all that goes, the Pats could hang 31 or 34 on Denver, or could only score 13.

[Mile High Mania]

Right now - things look pretty balanced on the production of both teams.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by JD10367

I dunno, I can see Denver scoring 14 offensively, but add a few FGs and another Matt Light "Ole!" block that results in a fumble... It wouldn't shock me if the Broncos put up 24, 27 points.

Ravens with #2 rated offense averaging 30'ish points and 430'ish yards of offense per game put up 21, only 14 of it by offense. I like Flacco more than Orton, and the Ravens' OLine more than Denvers. I also don't think any RAvens defender is nearly as good as Monsieur Suggs.

Finally, you're ignoring the fact that, unlike against the Ravens stellar defense, I expect the Pats to possess the ball for 35+ minutes against Denver, as they have against nearly every other team they have played this year. I think the Denver defense is performing over its head the first month here.

The question, really, is going to be which Brady shows up (the off-target one of the first halves, or the more accurate Brady of the second halves). And which Patriots' O-line shows up. And whether or not the WRs catch all the passes or drop more of them. Depending on how all that goes, the Pats could hang 31 or 34 on Denver, or could only score 13.

If Welker and Moss play, we'll be fine. Game 1 was pathetic, as the offense couldnt' find it's rhythm with Brady back, etc. Next two games we didn't have Wes Welker, who helps make everything go in a big way.

I'm expecting to see teh Pats offense improve steadily from here out, assuming no serious injuries.

OLine did fine last week against the Ravens, other than the Suggs disaster.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Right now - things look pretty balanced on the production of both teams.

Yes. Both have one "lucky" win in their column from the first week of the year. I think the Patriots have played a higher caliber of opponent, however, though the Bengals are looking better this year than they have in the past, no doubt about it.

Any word on whether the teams are wearing their throwback uniforms? It would make some sense.

If it was later in the year, this game might get flexed to the night game, but I don't think they can do that until late Oct / early November.

[Mile High Mania]

Well, the funny thing about the NFL is you can't always use that logic...

Denver beat Cincy... Cincy beats Green Bay and the Steelers. So, Denver should beat those teams... Right?

I see where you're going, but surely you've seen enough football in your life that tells you just because the explosive Ravens failed to score more than 21 points as a team... that doesn't mean Denver can't hang 40 on the Patriots. Am I suggesting that happens? No, but it's every bit as likely as them struggling to just hit 14.

NE had the ball for 37 minutes vs the Bills...
NE had the ball for 39 minutes vs the Falcons ...
NE had the ball for just under 35 minutes vs the Ravens ...
NE had the ball for just under 30 minutes @ the Jets...

NE had nearly identical TOP vs the Bills and Ravens. What does it really mean?

The Jets played "lights out" defense and beat the Patriots ...

The Jets didn't put up flashy numbers, just focused on creating issues for Brady and limiting what they do rushing and with Moss. Sounds like the team in Denver.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Yes. Both have one "lucky" win in their column from the first week of the year. I think the Patriots have played a higher caliber of opponent, however, though the Bengals are looking better this year than they have in the past, no doubt about it.

Any word on whether the teams are wearing their throwback uniforms? It would make some sense.

If it was later in the year, this game might get flexed to the night game, but I don't think they can do that until late Oct / early November.

Luck is what you make of it... Denver dominated that game for 59 minutes. Anyway, yes this is a "Legacy" game (I think that's the title). So get ready for some ugly UPS color unis in Denver.

[JD10367]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Ravens with #2 rated offense averaging 30'ish points and 430'ish yards of offense per game put up 21, only 14 of it by offense.

On the other hand, Baltimore's numbers (like Denver's) might benefit from the opponents. The Ravens did play KC and Cleveland, and the schitzo Chargers.

If this were in Foxboro, it'd be a different story. But that thin air, and a few long drives... This might be the first game of the year the Pats don't have the time-of-possession edge in.

[JD10367]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

The Jets played "lights out" defense and beat the Patriots ...

The Jets didn't put up flashy numbers, just focused on creating issues for Brady and limiting what they do rushing and with Moss. Sounds like the team in Denver.

I'm not making excuses, because coaching is part of the game, just like D, O, and ST. But it was evident in that game that, for whatever reasons--lack of Welker, Brady being rusty, Belichick not taking the reins, I dunno--the Pats' coaching kind of sucked. The offense was vanilla, the gameplan had few adjustments, receivers weren't holding on to the ball, etc.,.

Don't get me wrong. The Jets deserved to win. But just because the Jets beat the Pats in game 2 doesn't mean the Broncos can do the same thing in game 5, even if they run the same plays.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by JD10367

I'm not making excuses, because coaching is part of the game, just like D, O, and ST. But it was evident in that game that, for whatever reasons--lack of Welker, Brady being rusty, Belichick not taking the reins, I dunno--the Pats' coaching kind of sucked. The offense was vanilla, the gameplan had few adjustments, receivers weren't holding on to the ball, etc.,.

Don't get me wrong. The Jets deserved to win. But just because the Jets beat the Pats in game 2 doesn't mean the Broncos can do the same thing in game 5, even if they run the same plays.

All are very true... which is why I was saying just because the Ravens struggled to score more than 21 in total doesn't mean the Broncos will struggle to score 14, which is the picture he painted.

It's going to be a dog fight and a loss by Denver wouldn't shock me... I don't want anyone to confuse me for someone that thinks the Broncos have all of a sudden silenced the critics and are on the path to the playoffs.

Prior to week 1, I was pretty clear when I said that 3-1 was my expectation after 4 weeks. If they end this next stretch at 4-4... yes, it will be disappointing, but it won't be a shock to my system.

Denver still has a lot to prove... in part because of the Raiders and Browns being 2 of their wins.

I don't see this as an easy win for either team... and whether NE has Welker or not, they're formidable anywhere. I'm not taking anything for granted, but I don't think it's going to be easy for NE and it's more than just the location.