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09-10-2019, 11:54 PM | #46 | |
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I never mess with those gaudy numbers, stay in that 4 points or less relm, there it's pretty much the better team wins and covers, love small favorites. |
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09-11-2019, 12:02 AM | #47 | |
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Yeah, exactly. Just watch where the money is being laid; and what the line is doing counter to that. I actually think Vegas week 1 believed we were going to struggle in Jacksonville. 80% of the tickets were on the Chiefs. Yet the line went from 3.5 to 3. It did not make sense... either vegas is in the business of giving away free, easy money... or they ran simulations or had a pretty good inkling that the Jags were going to cover. I took the Jags to cover and lost badly obviously. And america made out with the books money. But over the long haul; if you look for these spots you will win. Same holds true in baseball where I make most of my money. This week... already one jumps out. Everyone is pounding the Seahawks because they're a popular team... and the Steelers got buried on National TV. I love a team off a butt kicking anyways. Then I see that the Steelers have gone -3.5 to -4 already. Everyone in the world will want Seattle even more. They're trapping people on Seattle. Pittsburgh is going to win the game, and cover. And Vegas knows it. |
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09-11-2019, 12:11 AM | #48 | |
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I usually don't get into searching out a "spot" where everything ATS points to a side until Friday, I do the homework. Last edited by Ubeja Vontell; 09-11-2019 at 12:27 AM.. |
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09-11-2019, 07:03 AM | #49 | |
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I will NEVER forget a few years ago when the 12-1 Pats played the 2-11 Dolphins in Miami and were leading, slightly, with like 5 minutes left and then went on to play just about the worst five minutes of football of BB/Brady's time together to throw it all away. Then you have last year's "Miami Miracle", the lone highlight in an otherwise lousy season down there. There's no question that Miami is the Bermuda Triangle of the Patriots Dynasty. Be prepared for weirdness, and be prepared to lose, no matter that it makes no damn sense at all.
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"I love signature blocks on the Internet. I get to put whatever the hell I want in quotes, pick a pretend author, and bang, it's like he really said it." George Washington Last edited by Amnorix; 09-11-2019 at 07:24 AM.. |
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09-11-2019, 07:28 AM | #50 |
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Could the Dolphins beat Clemson?
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09-11-2019, 07:42 AM | #51 |
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09-11-2019, 07:56 AM | #52 |
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And if forced to bet on a game like this i.e. Yahoo Spread pickem etc. type game take the home dog.
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09-11-2019, 08:00 AM | #53 | ||
a haw haw haw
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Quote:
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09-11-2019, 08:04 AM | #54 | |
a haw haw haw
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09-11-2019, 10:46 AM | #55 |
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09-11-2019, 10:53 AM | #56 |
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The NFL is an underdog league. History shows that consistently taking the home dog with double digit points can be a winning strategy.
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09-11-2019, 10:56 AM | #57 |
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I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State was a 70 point favorite a few years ago when they played some small D2 school -- I think Florida State had a similar line playing some directional school a few years ago as well
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09-11-2019, 11:02 AM | #58 |
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09-11-2019, 11:03 AM | #59 |
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We see those huge numbers all the time in college football, but it's rare to see - 19 in the NFL.
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09-11-2019, 11:08 AM | #60 |
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Ya, it's pretty rare to see double digit spreads, let alone -19
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