Taylor: 53-man roster projection: Ronald Jones returns, eight rookies earn spots

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Chiefs’ 53-man roster projection: Ronald Jones returns, eight rookies earn spots

By Nate Taylor

https://theathletic.com/3545850/2022...eight-rookies/

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — One of the hardest days in the NFL every year will occur Tuesday, the league’s mandatory roster cutdown deadline, the annual day when many players on the roster bubble leave a team’s training facility for the final time.

The Chiefs, yet again this year, know they are one of the league’s top Super Bowl contenders. After a traditional away-from-home training camp and a successful tour through the preseason, the Chiefs’ quantity of quality players will make the decisions leading up to Tuesday’s 3 p.m. CT deadline difficult. One decision to keep a player on the initial 53-man roster means another player, perhaps at another position, could be cut then join another team — as soon as this week — and become a contributor this season.

“It’s such a physical sport — and it’s such a long season,” general manager Brett Veach said Thursday on the Chiefs’ local TV broadcast during the team’s preseason finale against the Green Bay Packers. “We talk about it as a (personnel) staff all the time. When you look at your eight, ninth (offensive) lineman and you look at your fifth linebacker or your sixth receiver, those guys are really going to end up starting (or) playing valuable minutes throughout the course of the season.”

Similar to this time last year, the Chiefs have about 60 players who have value. The team appeared to still have about six roster spots available to be won when Thursday’s exhibition started. Following the game, three different players from our previous projection earlier this month have elevated themselves to be in position to earn a place on the Chiefs’ roster.

Below is our final 53-man roster projection, which included the reasons why some players, particularly a few veterans, earned the last roster spots over their younger teammates.

Note: Per usual, starters are designated in italics.

Spoiler!

OFFENSE (26)
Quarterbacks (2): Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne

This projection is going to mildly anger Chiefs fans. The reality, though, is that Henne, a 15-year veteran, was going to be a lock for the roster as long as he stayed healthy. His one-year, $2 million deal is fully guaranteed. One of the small troubling issues from the preseason is that Henne didn’t lead the Chiefs to points when he was on the field.

Meanwhile, Shane Buechele, a second-year player, was impressive in the preseason, as he finished with 31 completions on 51 attempts for 335 passing yards, with three touchdowns and one interception. The Chiefs might make a small gamble that Buechele, if he is cut, can return to the training facility in a few days as a member of the practice squad. But another team might claim him on waivers. Based on the preseason action, Buechele should probably be Mahomes’ primary backup.

All of this matters, of course, if Mahomes sustains an injury at any point this season. As for Mahomes, he enters his sixth season as arguably the league’s most talented quarterback, although his peers voted him as the NFL’s eight-best player.

Running backs (4): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, Ronald Jones

When it comes to the running backs, what I reported before training camp has remained true: The Chiefs want to have four running backs.

You could argue that last Thursday’s game was most pivotal for Jones, a five-year veteran who struggled in the preseason opener. Jones ran hard between the tackles against the Packers and finished with 43 rushing yards on eight carries. He also looked competent when catching a four-yard reception in the flat.

“There’s certainly value to having different skill levels and different players that can do different things,” Veach said Thursday of the team’s running back position. “You have Clyde and Jerick, who are so good in both the run and the pass. They’re a little smaller, and then you complement that with an Isiah Pacheco and a Ronald Jones, bigger backs that, once they square their shoulders, can really move the pile.”

Fullback (1): Michael Burton

Reid featured Burton early in the preseason, and one could argue that he has won the role of being the team’s best runner in short-yardage situations. He will also be a willing contributor on special teams.

Wide receivers (6): JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Daurice Fountain

No changes at this position. Watson and Fountain performed well in the preseason on offense and special teams, which made one of the most intriguing position battles at the start of camp become anticlimactic rather quickly.

“Everybody wants to make the team and you’re really just hoping and praying that you do, so it was a great feeling, especially with the receiver depth that we have,” Fountain said Thursday of earning the final receiving spot last year, which is likely to occur Tuesday. “It was a blessing. Hopefully the coaches think I did enough.”

Moore, the rookie who was taken in the second round, has progressed well throughout camp and the preseason. His 35-yard punt return against the Packers should secure his secondary role as the Chiefs’ primary punt returner.

Smith-Schuster didn’t record a reception in the preseason and he missed the final two games with a knee injury, so his role within the offense will likely be a mystery to the Arizona Cardinals leading up to the opener.

Tight ends (4): Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, Jody Fortson, Noah Gray

The biggest swing on offense in this projection is that Bell remains on the initial roster instead of Buechele. Bell, an eight-year veteran, had surgery Tuesday to repair the hip flexor injury he suffered in the preseason opener. With him expected to be out for a few weeks, Bell could be placed on the injured-reserve list.

Kelce, a future Hall of Famer, will look to record at least 1,000 receiving yards for a seventh consecutive season, a feat that has never occurred for a tight end in the league’s history.

Offensive linemen (9): Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Andrew Wylie, Nick Allegretti, Austin Reiter, Geron Christian, Prince Tega Wanogho

A surprise is that the depth at this position is not as strong as I anticipated at the start of camp. Roderick Johnson, a five-year veteran, was projected to be the backup left tackle. Instead, he struggled once the team started having padded practices and was released Saturday. This projection also doesn’t include rookie right tackle Darian Kinnard, who should return on the practice squad for a “redshirt year” so he can develop his technique at both tackle and guard. Wanogho, a second-year player, was solid in the final two preseason games to earn the final roster spot.

The Chiefs at least have reliable backups in Allegretti and Reiter, a center who played much of Thursday’s game at right guard. On the waiver wire, the Chiefs likely will look to claim another tackle. The good news for coach Andy Reid and Mahomes is that the Chiefs might have the league’s best starting offensive line.

DEFENSE (24)

Defensive linemen (9): Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Carlos Dunlap, George Karlaftis, Mike Danna, Tershawn Wharton, Danny Shelton, Khalen Saunders

Thursday’s game provided an opportunity for young defensive ends such as Joshua Kaindoh, Malik Herring and Azur Kamara to prove they are worthy of the last roster spot in this group. But the trio of defenders were not impressive enough against the Packers.

Honestly, the Chiefs still have more talented defensive tackles than defensive ends. Shelton, an eight-year veteran, played only a few snaps in the preseason, but he should be an imposing defender in the middle of the line. Much of the season will come down to how valuable Karlaftis, a rookie, and Dunlap, a 13-year veteran, are as part of the Chiefs’ pass rush. A first-round pick, Karlaftis was stellar in the preseason in showcasing his strength and athleticism.

The leader of the group is Jones, the seventh-year veteran who is the most-tenured member of the defense. He was voted by his peers as the league’s 39th-best player.

Linebacker (5): Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, Elijah Lee, Darius Harris, Leo Chenal

As expected, Bolton and Gay were dominant in the preseason. The biggest winner from Thursday’s game was Harris, the third-year veteran who appears to be the backup middle linebacker. Harris finished the game with three tackles, including one behind the line of scrimmage.

“It felt good and I just got off to a hot start,” Harris said following Thursday’s game. “After that first tackle, I just built confidence and it came to me after that. Obviously I feel like I’ve put enough (good production) on film and hopefully I make the 53-man roster. It would definitely be an honor to make the cut and be on the active roster throughout the entire season.”

As it relates to Jermaine Carter Jr., the fifth-year veteran who signed with the Chiefs this offseason, can I ask you a question: Do you remember him having an impressive snap in the preseason? The answer, I believe, is no, which is alarming considering he entered training camp as a potential rotational defender. The other issue is that Carter’s one-year, $1 million contract is fully guaranteed. The reason he doesn’t make it in this projection is that he was outplayed by Lee, Harris and Chenal, a rookie.

Cornerbacks (6): L’Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton, Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Chris Lammons, Jaylen Watson

The players are the same as our previous projection, but McDuffie, a rookie who was selected in the draft’s first round, entered the league’s concussion protocol during Thursday’s game. If McDuffie is not available against the Cardinals, his spot would likely go to Williams, a rookie who was selected in the fourth round. On special teams, Williams and Lammons are talented enough to be stars as four-phase contributors.

Sneed will begin the season as the nickel cornerback with Fenton as the leading man on the perimeter. Watson, a seventh-round pick, was the most positive surprise for the defense this preseason.

Safeties (4): Justin Reid, Juan Thornhill, Bryan Cook, Deon Bush

As expected, Reid and Thornhill are the starters with Cook, a rookie, in the third safety role. In the preseason, the play from these four defenders demonstrated the difference in athleticism and physicality compared to the safety position a year ago. Cook ended the preseason with an interception.

Special teams (3*)
Kicker (1): Harrison Butker
Punter (1): Tommy Townsend
Long snapper (1): James Winchester
Emergency kicker (1*): Justin Reid

The entire kicking battery appears to be in good form ahead of the season opener. Butker, a six-year veteran, wants to earn his first Pro Bowl selection. In pregame repetitions during the preseason, Butker made successful field-goal kicks of 71 and 70 yards. Butker’s career long is a 58-yard field goal, but a quality kick from 60 yards or more from him could be the difference in a victory this season.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by tredadda

I am more concerned with them losing Beuchele than Kinnard.

I'm not even the slightest bit concerned over losing Buechele. It's not like he's a meaningful difference vs. Henne. They're both fungible backups. If Buechele has value around the league and would get sniped, I'd be fine trading him.

Because ultimately Andy Reid will make another one just like him. And then another one after that. These are marginal talents that Reid coaches into looking like they're NFL players.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mecca

The issue there is though, you'd hope at worst Kinnard can become a starting guard allowing us to move on from Thuney's contract, Buechele never moves to a starter role here.

Wanogho and Christian as backup OT's great, but no need to keep both Allegretti and Reiter, they're the same damn guy.

Nah.

Ideally you'd like to have one focus on being a C and the other focus on being a G. You can have Reiter on the roster as a backup C and be completely confident in how things will go should Creed go down. You can also have Allegretti out there as a G and be equally confident. Those are guys you'd like to have on the roster and working at their 'primary' positions.

You lose one of your starters and you're a sprain away from seeing Kinnard protecting the middle and I'm just not comfortable with that.

[O.city]

I'd love to see a trade for a pass rusher. Player for player like we've done.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by tredadda

True, but I am looking at the possibility that Mahomes misses any time (hope not). At some point I am not looking forward to the possibility of a 37+ year old Henne coming in. We almost lost Beuchele last year. Not sure we sneak him onto the PS again.

If that's the case, I'd rather suck ass get better draft picks and a 4th place schedule for the next season.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd love to see a trade for a pass rusher. Player for player like we've done.

So you're probably wanting to look for guys in, say, their 3rd season who have disappointed.

The Panthers seem to still be high on Metur-Gross. Darrell Taylor missed his rookie year but came back nicely last season. Okwara is probably a little undersized.

AJ Epenesa is a Bill - I just don't see them trying to help us out. You've mentioned Chaisson a time or two, IIRC - probably not a bad option to make a call on. The Texans have no real reason to move Greenard. The 2019 draft was a shit-show at DE so you're not finding much there. 2021 isn't looking much better.

I think it's probably Chaisson or bust. I don't see anybody else out there that's a real appealing/attainable target.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Nah.

Ideally you'd like to have one focus on being a C and the other focus on being a G. You can have Reiter on the roster as a backup C and be completely confident in how things will go should Creed go down. You can also have Allegretti out there as a G and be equally confident. Those are guys you'd like to have on the roster and working at their 'primary' positions.

You lose one of your starters and you're a sprain away from seeing Kinnard protecting the middle and I'm just not comfortable with that.

Allegretti is a great guy to have at backup guard. Dude will be a starter next year somewhere. I'm fine with Reiter too, I hope to never see him, but it could be worse. OT is the concern and sadly Niang and Kinnard don't seem to be the answer.

I'd love to try and get Jenkins from the Bears, hell anything, would improve what we have at backup OT.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So you're probably wanting to look for guys in, say, their 3rd season who have disappointed.

The Panthers seem to still be high on Metur-Gross. Darrell Taylor missed his rookie year but came back nicely last season. Okwara is probably a little undersized.

AJ Epenesa is a Bill - I just don't see them trying to help us out. You've mentioned Chaisson a time or two, IIRC - probably not a bad option to make a call on. The Texans have no real reason to move Greenard. The 2019 draft was a shit-show at DE so you're not finding much there. 2021 isn't looking much better.

I think it's probably Chaisson or bust. I don't see anybody else out there that's a real appealing/attainable target.

Yeah, as much as I'd love to have a good young DE, I don't really see one that's attainable.

I still don't know what's happening with Quinn but I'm hoping the Bears and Commanders suck so they'll look to trade some of those DL guys.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd love to see a trade for a pass rusher. Player for player like we've done.

I was about to laugh at the thought of a team trading away a pass rusher willy-nilly in a player-for-player trade, then I remembered that Veach pulled that exact shit off when he sent away Eric Murray for Ogbah.

Don't know about late preseason, since very few teams have just so many good pass rushers that they can't keep them all, but nothing would really surprise me. Veach is a wizard at this shit.

[Bowser]

Damn, Ogbah. Should have thrown some money at him and kept him around.

Now I'm all sad.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I was about to laugh at the thought of a team trading away a pass rusher willy-nilly in a player-for-player trade, then I remembered that Veach pulled that exact shit off when he sent away Eric Murray for Ogbah.

Don't know about late preseason, since very few teams have just so many good pass rushers that they can't keep them all, but nothing would really surprise me. Veach is a wizard at this shit.

Montez Sweat is a player I've kinda kept my eye on.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'm not even the slightest bit concerned over losing Buechele. It's not like he's a meaningful difference vs. Henne. They're both fungible backups. If Buechele has value around the league and would get sniped, I'd be fine trading him.

Because ultimately Andy Reid will make another one just like him. And then another one after that. These are marginal talents that Reid coaches into looking like they're NFL players.

Yup and Henne's contract is fully guaranteed so is it worth it to hold on the Buechele just to make sure he is around next year to be the #2 guy?

Is he worth eating $2MM to dump Henne? Nah.

[Megatron96]

Welp, looks like I was right about Skyy; made it easily. So did Pacheco for that matter.

Looks like Shelton will make it as well, though I thought he was kind of a shoo-in anyway (didn't he sign a 1-year deal or something?).

Anyone else surprised (even a little?) that LB E. Lee made it? Maybe it was just me, but I didn't really see that much out of him, though I did watch the Franchise episode 2 bit of him and he seems like a nice guy that also has all the intangibles that the Chiefs like.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So you're probably wanting to look for guys in, say, their 3rd season who have disappointed.

The Panthers seem to still be high on Metur-Gross. Darrell Taylor missed his rookie year but came back nicely last season. Okwara is probably a little undersized.

AJ Epenesa is a Bill - I just don't see them trying to help us out. You've mentioned Chaisson a time or two, IIRC - probably not a bad option to make a call on. The Texans have no real reason to move Greenard. The 2019 draft was a shit-show at DE so you're not finding much there. 2021 isn't looking much better.

I think it's probably Chaisson or bust. I don't see anybody else out there that's a real appealing/attainable target.

You'd also have 3rd year guys who teams don't wanna sign or can't sign long term. You'd theoretically have 3 years with teh tag if you traded for them so while not ideal, it could work.

They won't do it, probably shouldn't but if the Panthers aren't planning to keep Burns or the Commanders with Sweat, you think they'd move them for less than a 1?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Welp, looks like I was right about Skyy; made it easily. So did Pacheco for that matter.

Looks like Shelton will make it as well, though I thought he was kind of a shoo-in anyway (didn't he sign a 1-year deal or something?).

Anyone else surprised (even a little?) that LB E. Lee made it? Maybe it was just me, but I didn't really see that much out of him, though I did watch the Franchise episode 2 bit of him and he seems like a nice guy that also has all the intangibles that the Chiefs like.

To be fair, this is Taylor projecting the final roster. It's not the actual final roster.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

Kinnard can go wear incendiary shirts to his fast food interviews for all I care.

Please Belize that!