How does Dwayne Bowe rank among the elite WR's?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Sorry, didn't want this getting overlooked in the other thread. Then again, people will probably ignore it anyway - I know some of you will appreciate this.


I keep seeing people say that Dwayne Bowe isn't an elite WR. So I decided to do some research to see how he matches up statistically over his 5 years in the league.

What I found, is that statistically, Bowe is the 10th best WR of the last 5 years.

I found 9 other WR's that either had better yardage totals, better TD numbers or both. He was 10th in yardage, tied for 6th in TD's.

Here's the list. (Yardage/TD's) Bolded players have fewer or same TD's as Bowe.


Larry Fitzgerald - 6480/49

Roddy White - 6422/42

Reggie Wayne - 6234/36

Wes Welker - 6105/31

Calvin Johnson - 5872/49

Andre Johnson - 5703/35

Greg Jennings - 5539/46

Steve Smith - 5353/29

Marques Colston - 5202/40

Dwayne Bowe - 4927/36


Personally, I think that's impressive on its own.

Especially when you consider the only guy on this list who is younger is Megatron. I'd be curious to see how he matches up to the same players during each of their first 5 seasons.

Anyway, when you compare Bowe's number's to the #1 yardage and #1 TD's - he's not nearly as far off as it seems.

It comes down to 19.41 yard a game, and .16 TD's per game.

Factor in that Bowe is missing something the other 9 have - solid QB play.

After looking at this, its hard for me to say Dwayne Bowe is NOT an elite WR, considering how his numbers match up to the "elite" and never having the benefit of decent QB play.

I'm pretty confident in saying that with solid QB play, Bowe would easily make up 19.41 yards and .16 TD's a game.

Like him or not, he's an elite WR - and has shown it over his 5 years in the league.

Dude deserved elite money.

Or, tl;dr - **** him.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Toad King

His YPC would definitely go up with a better QB.

Our guy is good for 10 completions over 20 per year.

Yards per target, but yep.

[007]

God I just feel sick now.

[BigRock]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Would you mind linking these stats?

Sure. A friend of mine at a national publication planned to do an article on Bowe before the 2010 Pro Bowl. It didn't happen, but he thought I'd like the research data.

The stats are all straight from the NFL, the comparisions and such were his.

2007

TEAM AHEAD: 8 receptions, 116 yards, 0 TD
GAME TIED: 15 receptions, 190 yards, 1 TD
TEAM BEHIND: 47 receptions, 689 yards, 4 TD

Catches while ahead: 11%
Catches while tied: 21%
Catches while behind: 67%

Yards while ahead: 11%
Yards while tied: 19%
Yards while behind: 69%

TDs while ahead: 0%
TDs while tied: 20%
TDs while behind: 80%

Total production while ahead: 7%
Total production while tied: 20%
Total production while behind: 72%

Most “team ahead” stats posted while lead <= 7 points.
Most "team behind" stats posted while deficit >= 10 points.

2008

TEAM AHEAD: 20 receptions, 217 yards, 1 TD
GAME TIED: 15 receptions, 188 yards, 2 TD
TEAM BEHIND: 51 receptions, 617 yards, 4 TD

Catches while ahead: 23%
Catches while tied: 17%
Catches while behind: 59%

Yards while ahead: 21%
Yards while tied: 18%
Yards while behind: 60%

TDs while ahead: 14%
TDs while tied: 28%
TDs while behind: 57%

Total production while ahead: 19%
Total production while tied: 21%
Total production while behind: 59%

Most “team ahead” stats posted while lead <= 7 points.
Most "team behind" stats posted while deficit >= 10 points.

2009

TEAM AHEAD: 7 receptions, 99 yards, 0 TD
GAME TIED: 16 receptions, 175 yards, 0 TD
TEAM BEHIND: 24 receptions, 315 yards, 4 TD

Catches while ahead: 14%
Catches while tied: 34%
Catches while behind: 51%

Yards while ahead: 16%
Yards while tied: 29%
Yards while behind: 53%

TDs while ahead: 0%
TDs while tied: 0%
TDs while behind: 100%

Total production while ahead: 10%
Total production while tied: 21%
Total production while behind: 68%

Most “team ahead” stats posted while lead <= 7 points.
Most "team behind" stats posted while deficit <= 7 points.

-- 3 YEAR AVERAGE --

Total production while ahead: 12%
Total production while tied: 21%
Total production while behind: 66%

2010

TEAM AHEAD: 29 receptions, 551 yards, 8 TD
GAME TIED: 15 receptions, 183 yards, 3 TD
TEAM BEHIND: 28 receptions, 428 yards, 4 TD

Catches while ahead: 40%
Catches while tied: 20%
Catches while behind: 38%

Yards while ahead: 47%
Yards while tied: 15%
Yards while behind: 36%

TDs while ahead: 53%
TDs while tied: 20%
TDs while behind: 26%

Total production while ahead: 46%
Total production while tied: 18%
Total production while behind: 33%

Most “team ahead” stats posted while lead <= 7 points.
Most "team behind" stats posted while deficit <= 7 points.

2007-2009 to 2010 COMPARISON

Production while ahead: from 12% to 46%
Production while tied: from 21% to 18%
Production while behind: from 66% to 33%

I think it's pretty clear that, in Bowe's first couple years, the majority of his stats (66% -- so nearly 70%) came while the team was behind. And aside from 2009, it's noted that most of those stats came with the team trailing by 10 or more.

And... I'm pretty sure that's what I said. Let me check.

Bowe's first two years in the league, he put up nearly 70% of his stats while the team was getting its ass kicked.

Well, maybe a bit hyperbolic. Really, I hadn't looked at these numbers in quite a while. Given that, I'd say I summarized 'em pretty god damn accurately.

But had I known the Bowe derangement crew was going to seize on this as though disproving it would somehow magically validate their idea that Bowe's an elite receiver, I would have tipped you off to this little nugget: it's ****ing irrelevant. Who gives a shit? I just mentioned it as an example of how useless these stats are. It doesn't prove or disprove anything about Bowe.

What are you guys even doing? Quick, figure up what his stats would be in an alternate reality! Quick, try to disprove something totally meaningless about what the score was in 2007! Holy shit.

Has Bowe been in the league for five years? Yes. Has he only been great for one of those years? Yes. Then he's not elite, is he? No. It doesn't work that way.

You guys are working yourselves up into a needless tizzy and it's a complete waste of time. Bowe's very good. He's not elite. And he shouldn't have to be for Pioli to pay him. He's one of the two best offensive players we have. Pay the man. You can bury Pioli based on reality. You don't have to create a fantasy to manufacture outrage for your circle jerk. For ****'s sake over here.

And speaking of circle jerks, I'll thank you to stop talking about my dick while I'm not here. Bunch of weirdos.

[Ace Gunner]

Heh.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by BigRock

Sure. A friend of mine at a national publication planned to do an article on Bowe before the 2010 Pro Bowl. It didn't happen, but he thought I'd like the research data.

The stats are all straight from the NFL, the comparisions and such were his.



I think it's pretty clear that, in Bowe's first couple years, the majority of his stats (66% -- so nearly 70%) came while the team was behind. And aside from 2009, it's noted that most of those stats came with the team trailing by 10 or more.

Interesting stats. IMHO, it tends to prove that Weis was able to utilize Bowe better than others.

[CoMoChief]

Basically in a nut shell. If Bowe was on a team with a good QB his #'s would increase.

I don't know if that would be a dramatic increase, being that Cassel always locks onto Bowe for starters. With a good QB, one that went through his reads, would probably spread the ball out a little better (much better actually), instead of locking onto Bowe and then checking down to a RB when Bowe's not open.

[lcarus]

I guess I'm about 600 posts late to chime in with my opinion but I think Bowe is right there underneath the real elite WRs in this league. There are guys like Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Roddy White - those guys are hands down in a league of their own. Then I think Bowe fits in just underneath them. Where guys like Welker and Jennings prosper more due to the system they're in with the QBs they have, Bowe prospers less due to the system he's been in with the QBs he's had.

I mean, not only has he had just awful QBs his ENTIRE time with the Chiefs, but the offensive systems, or lack thereof, that he's been apart of is staggering. As you all well know, our offense has been a ****ing TRAINWRECK for years now. Since Herm was hired basically. Aside from one season when Charlie Weis was here, it's been awful. Even with the Weis season, our passing offense wasn't exactly the Packers or the Patriots. It was the running game that benefited mostly from that system.

All of that said, Bowe has put up ****ing incredible numbers ANYWAY. The man deserves to get paid to remain a part of this team. How much money? I don't know, but he deserves a big pay day.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by BigRock

Sure. A friend of mine at a national publication planned to do an article on Bowe before the 2010 Pro Bowl. It didn't happen, but he thought I'd like the research data.

The stats are all straight from the NFL, the comparisions and such were his.



I think it's pretty clear that, in Bowe's first couple years, the majority of his stats (66% -- so nearly 70%) came while the team was behind. And aside from 2009, it's noted that most of those stats came with the team trailing by 10 or more.

And... I'm pretty sure that's what I said. Let me check.


Well, maybe a bit hyperbolic. Really, I hadn't looked at these numbers in quite a while. Given that, I'd say I summarized 'em pretty god damn accurately.

But had I known the Bowe derangement crew was going to seize on this as though disproving it would somehow magically validate their idea that Bowe's an elite receiver, I would have tipped you off to this little nugget: it's ****ing irrelevant. Who gives a shit? I just mentioned it as an example of how useless these stats are. It doesn't prove or disprove anything about Bowe.

What are you guys even doing? Quick, figure up what his stats would be in an alternate reality! Quick, try to disprove something totally meaningless about what the score was in 2007! Holy shit.

Has Bowe been in the league for five years? Yes. Has he only been great for one of those years? Yes. Then he's not elite, is he? No. It doesn't work that way.

You guys are working yourselves up into a needless tizzy and it's a complete waste of time. Bowe's very good. He's not elite. And he shouldn't have to be for Pioli to pay him. He's one of the two best offensive players we have. Pay the man. You can bury Pioli based on reality. You don't have to create a fantasy to manufacture outrage for your circle jerk. For ****'s sake over here.

And speaking of circle jerks, I'll thank you to stop talking about my dick while I'm not here. Bunch of weirdos.

Here's the rpoblem with your stats as presented.

If your team is 10 points behind with 4 minutes to play, then passing becomes a necessity.

If your team is 10 points behind in the second quarter, then there really isn't any urgency to pass the ball.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by lcarus

I guess I'm about 600 posts late to chime in with my opinion but I think Bowe is right there underneath the real elite WRs in this league. There are guys like Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Roddy White - those guys are hands down in a league of their own. Then I think Bowe fits in just underneath them. Where guys like Welker and Jennings prosper more due to the system they're in with the QBs they have, Bowe prospers less due to the system he's been in with the QBs he's had.

I mean, not only has he had just awful QBs his ENTIRE time with the Chiefs, but the offensive systems, or lack thereof, that he's been apart of is staggering. As you all well know, our offense has been a ****ing TRAINWRECK for years now. Since Herm was hired basically. Aside from one season when Charlie Weis was here, it's been awful. Even with the Weis season, our passing offense wasn't exactly the Packers or the Patriots. It was the running game that benefited mostly from that system.

All of that said, Bowe has put up ****ing incredible numbers ANYWAY. The man deserves to get paid to remain a part of this team. How much money? I don't know, but he deserves a big pay day.

People keep placing Roddy White and Andre Johnson ahead of Bowe, and I am just not sure that's true.

When you look at the numbers that have been posted, Bowe appears to be in the same class.

If Bowe was catching passes from from Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, he might be viewed as top 3 in the NFL.

[Ace Gunner]

Originally Posted by milkman

Here's the rpoblem with your stats as presented.

If your team is 10 points behind with 4 minutes to play, then passing becomes a necessity.

If your team is 10 points behind in the second quarter, then there really isn't any urgency to pass the ball.

Unless you're the Chiefs during the past 5 seasons Go prove it, dairy queen.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

If the Chiefs threw as much as the Cardinals, 5509/40.

Larry Fitzgerald - 6480/49

The first to beat Bowe in both categories.

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

If the Chiefs threw as much as the Lions, 5610/42.

Megatron - 5872/49.

Maybe I'm reading wrong but it appears Megatron and Fitz beat him in both categories.

That's about what I'd expect though.

Tier 1
1a. Fitzgerald
1b. Megatron

2. Andre Johnson

Tier 2
Bowe
Welker
Marshall
White

I've only actually heard speculation as to what Bowe's asking price is, but he's obviously extra valuable to this team. I say pay the man.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

I've only actually heard speculation as to what Bowe's asking price is, but he's obviously extra valuable to this team. I say pay the man.

Just because he's extra valuable to this team doesn't mean you give into his demands and pay him the same as players who are better. If Bowe is asking for Fitzgerald money then Pioli is playing this the right way. Locking him down with the franchise tag for his prime years while paying him less.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

Basically in a nut shell. If Bowe was on a team with a good QB his #'s would increase.

I don't know if that would be a dramatic increase, being that Cassel always locks onto Bowe for starters. With a good QB, one that went through his reads, would probably spread the ball out a little better (much better actually), instead of locking onto Bowe and then checking down to a RB when Bowe's not open.

But then you're more consistently moving the chains with a legit QB and then giving the WR even more looks.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Just because he's extra valuable to this team doesn't mean you give into his demands and pay him the same as players who are better. If Bowe is asking for Fitzgerald money then Pioli is playing this the right way. Locking him down with the franchise tag for his prime years while paying him less.

Wow.

You went full reerun.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Dave

Wow.

You went full reerun.

Full reerun would be giving Bowe 50M guaranteed.