***Official 2022 Royals Season Repository Thread***

[ChiefsCountry]

For all things Royals in 2022. #3 minor league system according to Baseball America. The Bobby Witt era should begin this year. Will Salvy still be the homerun king? How does the glut of infield players work out? Will the young pitchers take the next step?

Free Agents/Trades Acquisitions
Zack Greinke, P
Amir Garrett, P
Taylor Clarke, P

Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America
1. Bobby Witt, SS
2. Asa Lacy, P
3. MJ Melendez, C
4. Nick Pratto, 1B
5. Jackson Kowar, P
6. Kyle Isabel, OF
7. Frank Mozzicato, P
8. Ben Kudrna, P
9. Jonathan Bowlan, P
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B

Duncan's Top Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS. MLB.
This status lasts about another 4 weeks, but let’s take a moment to appreciate having the top guy in the minor league prospects lists for at least a little while longer. Witt has prodigious ability and the question is really just IF he can meet it. They have not had a prospect like this in my lifetime, and really probably ever. Combine insane raw physical skills (right there with Adalberto Mondesi and Willie Wilson in the ranks right behind Bo Jackson) with unbelievable work ethic, a humble-but-confident nature, and already having shown he can struggle and overcome to achieve big success, and you have the tools for a show-stopping centerpiece. Oh, and throw in the former-player’s kid aspect on it on top of things, and there is every reason to believe he’s going to succeed and succeed big.
2. M.J. Melendez, C, AAA Omaha.
I was early on putting him in this slot last year, and I don’t regret it. The power, the ability to be a good defender behind the dish as well as having the athletic ability to play 3B or LF, too, and you have a really valuable overall piece and FANTASTIC understudy for Salvador Perez.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP. AA Northwest Arkansas
Whoa, let’s get crazy again. Lacy has outstanding stuff. Top of the system. He got hurt and lost his command during COVID times, but appears to be back on track so far this spring. If his command sticks, this is a guy who can move quickly. And his ceiling is really second to nobody in the minor league pitching ranks.
4. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B. AA Northwest Arkansas
Vinnie starts the season back at AA due to the guy who follows him on the list here. He just hits, folks. I love his combination of contact, loud contact, plate discipline, and lack of strikeouts. The Billy Butler comparisons are annoying (in that I will NEVER refer to this man as Italian Breakfast except in the instance that just occurred), but the Billy Butler comparisons are also fairly apt… if you made Butler a lefthanded hitter, AND improved his body/athleticism from a 20 to a 40, AND if you added that little extra touch of power we all wished Butler could consistently find.
5. Nick Pratto, 1B, AAA Omaha.
Hey, let’s stay at 1B. Pratto has flashy power and I love his batting eye AND his hand-eye coordination. The hair he’s been rocking this spring is also pretty sweet. I slot him just behind Pasquantino simply because I think his bat profile is more volatile. The glove and arm are sweet/plus for 1B, though.
6. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AAA Omaha
Bowlan is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is assuming that recovering is successful. If it his, you’re talking about a big, consistent SP who throws hard enough and has enough of a repertoire to really make things happen. If the recovery goes well, he may be shuttling to the majors in July to reinforce the rotation.
7. Nick Loftin, CF, AA Omaha.
Loftin is a guy who has really grown on me. I saw him as a quasi super-utility guy when the Royals drafted him, The full-time shift to CF (which means they think he has the speed and the overall defensive ability to handle CF in Kansas City) adds a lot of value here. The ultimate positive offensive upside is similar to peak Whit Merrifield, maybe with a touch more early power.
8. Michael Massey, 2B, AA Northwest Arkansas.
Massey was an absolute revelation last year, hitting for power and average and keeping his K rate down while playing a really strong 2B. He has a very sweet, short lefthanded stroke. This is another aggressive rating, but Massey has proven himself through a tough minor league assignment already, and the arrow is pointed up.
9. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Rookie Ball
Kudrna is a big, physical specimen with a lot of upside and potential. The fastball and slider are already nearly MLB-level in terms of velocity and movement (command needs work). Kudrna is a guy who, with luck, and health, and good development, could ascend to the top of a rotation.
10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, Rookie Ball.
Mozzicato has a curveball that suggests he has a feel for spin. If you want to dream, you hope that the next 2-3 years turn the 175 he weighed when drafted into a rock-solid 220/225 and carries with it an increase in fastball velocity from 90-91, sitting 87-88, to 96-97, sitting 93-94. You pair his ability to spin the ball (which also suggests he should be able to easily master a sweeper slider) with that type of fastball velo and a changeup he already has a feel for, and it’s an exciting profile.

He has a little more to go in terms of growing into that projectability than Kudrna, which is why he slots right behind him.
11. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Marsh missed a lot of 2021 to injury, but the hard-throwing righthander is another guy who could move quickly once the minor league season starts. He’s undeniably got the stuff of a quality major-league pitcher. The question is if he can master enough command to cash it in. This guy is a great example of TINSTAAPP.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AAA Omaha
Zerpa might quickly outperform this slot. His stuff ticked up in 21 and he ended the season making a start in the majors. He’s nice depth to have, and honestly, I’m a big fan of just throwing numbers at pitching. Zerpa definitely helps create the depth you need to generate a top-notch and reliable home-grown rotation.
13. Maikel Garcia, SS, AA Northwest Arkansas
Garcia is a really intriguing hitter, a righthanded hitter who has a nice combination of contact skills and control of the strike zone (this cousin of Alcides Escobar is less savvy with the glove and more savvy at the plate). The Royals protected him for a reason (he’s on the 40-man).
14. Carter Jensen, C, A ??
Jensen is a local product whose bat will probably push him off C (as well as the Royals depth at that spot throughout the organization). This is a future 1B profile, and a nice one. He makes a lot of loud contact and shows an ability to lift the ball. Should be fun to watch this year.
15. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A+ Quad Rivers
Hernandez missed a good part of 2021 but still has that butterfly changeup and a classic pitcher’s profile. He’ll need to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary to make it in the bigs, but if not, the fastball velocity and changeup should make him a quality high-leverage reliver.
16. Dylan Coleman, RHP, AAA Omaha
Speaking of relievers, Coleman is a hard-throwing righthander who probably spends most of 22 in the Royals’ pen. ½ of the compensation for the Rosenthal trade a few years back, Coleman has a big fastball and nasty breaking ball.
17. Will Klein, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Speaking of relivers, everything I just said about Coleman? Yeah, you can say it about Klein, too. Klein regularly toyed with hitters at high A last year, striking out 121 hitters in just 70 1/3 innings pitched. For those counting at home, that’s a 15.5 K/9 rate. Yep. That’ll play.
18. Anthony Veneziano, LHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Here’s another big, power arm. Veneziano hasn’t been relegated to bullpen only yet, though. His fastball bumped into the high 90s last year on a starter’s workload. He’s still looking for a changeup, but if he doesn’t find it, you’re looking at a really promising future bullpen fireballer.
19. Erick Pena, OF, A ?
Pena did… not have a strong 2021 full season debut. His struggles look a lot like those of Pratto and Melendez in 2019. Pena has the same type of raw toolkit to work from as those two, with great hands and natural power. He needs to fix a hitch in his swing and calm it down, but so did Melendez. Of this second ten grouping, Pena has the highest upside and could jump right into the top 5 of the org ranks.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A+
Collins is an international signing out of Europe. I like the hitting package here – good eye and contact skills. He needs to make more loud contact, but if he can, really a nice guy.

Overall takeaways:
This is a system with a lot of depth. We could go another 10-12 deep and still be talking about guys with a good shot to make the majors. The changes to the organization’s approach are bearing fruit, as even less-heralded draftees are stepping forward.

The combination of upside (Witt, Melendez, Lacy), depth, and guys you can dream on is fun. It may not produce quite as much as the 2011 group did, but it does offer a more sustainable system, less reliant on a few big-ticket guys.

[poolboy]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Why didn't they pick one of our better rookies?

[poolboy]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Baseball and football managers really shouldn't even make any in-game decisions that have to do with win probability.

what baseball in-game decisions are you talking about?
We already do a lot of it now...First pitch strikes, play the shift and outfield placement, lefty right starting lineup and pinch hitters. hit and run, stealing bases.amount of rest for starting pitchers etc
.what exactly is left to do in game?

[KChiefs1]

Article for BWillie.

Who is Vinnie Pasquantino and What's He Worth?
The Royals best hitter in 2022 was in the minors to start the year and wasn't even the best prospect at his own position to start the season.

Spoiler!

While you can find talent in the MLB draft at any level, the vast majority are going to come from the top. And that’s sort of become even more true as scouting and analysis has become so strong leading into the draft. So when someone like Mike Piazza hits it big as a 62nd round draft pick, it’s big news. These days, any player who was picked after the 20th round is a reminder of a lost time because the draft has gone from unlimited rounds to 50 to 40 to now just 20. All that said, the 319th pick in the draft has actually given some pretty darn good players.

The second-best starter on the Angels behind Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, was picked 319th in 2015. Craig Counsell had a nice big league career. He was picked 319th in 1992. Former Royals shortstop Rey Sanchez was picked there in 1986. And Bob Welch was picked there in 1974. He didn’t sign, but he had a very good career. And then just three years ago, the Royals used the 319th pick to select Vincent Joseph Pasquantino out of Old Dominion University.

Paquantino looked like one of those organizational players. You figured he’d hit in the lower levels because he was a college bat with a good eye, but he’d start to falter as he rose through the system. Half of that was right. He did hit at the lower levels, putting up a .294/.371/.592 line in 2019 in rookie ball. But 2020 was wiped out and Pasquantino was sort of forgotten. Until he just kept hitting last year. He hit .291/.384/.565 in high-A with 33 walks and 38 strikeouts. Then he hit even better at AA - .310/.405/.560 with 31 walks and 26 strikeouts.

We know what came next. He had the shot to go to AAA and he didn’t disappoint. In 69 games, he hit .280/.372/.576 with 37 walks and 36 strikeouts. So the guy that I think most people thought would eventually hit a wall just kept on hitting at every level. He came to the big leagues and hit .295/.383/.450 with 35 walks and 34 strikeouts. We can go on about how amazing that is and how rare that is and all of that, but all that matters is that he is the best hitter on the Royals and someone I believe will be a top-30 hitter in all of baseball in 2023. If that seems like an outlandish claim, it’s not.

His wRC+ of 137 ranked 29th among all big leaguers with 250 or more plate appearances. His average was 23rd. His OBP was ninth. His walk rate was 32nd and his strikeout rate was the 10th-lowest. There’s an argument to be made that the only outlandish thing about my claim that he’ll be a top-30 hitter next season is that he already is one now. And I’d wager he’ll find more success next year with the shift limited. He was shifted most of the time, but his wOBA with no shift was .422 compared to .362 with the shift on. First, take a look at where he defenses played him last season.

I think you’ll see a significantly higher number of batted balls get through for him that were turned into 4-3 groundouts, which, in my opinion, is the part of the rule that I really like with the shift limitations.

Of course, it’s not all perfect for Pasquantino. He isn’t a bad first baseman, but he’s also not nearly as good as Nick Pratto defensively. He rated fine by the metrics with -1 defensive run saved and +1 outs above average. I don’t think he’s someone who hurts you over there and he might even work himself to be a bit above average, but in the end, a slightly above average first baseman just doesn’t provide much defensive value. I always say that the real amount of importance on first base defense lies somewhere between what the Royals think and what the fans think. I do think a great defender has a bigger positive impact than a poor defender has a negative impact, but Pasquantino is neither of those.

So if the Royals believe Pratto can be a big league hitter, I assume they also believe he is their first baseman most of the time, which makes Pasquantino a designated hitter. As much as a first baseman doesn’t have much defensive value, a DH obviously has zero defensive value, so they better hit an awful lot to be worth giving any real money to in a long-term deal. But as I write that, we shouldn’t forget that Pasquantino is literally already one of the 30 best hitters in all of baseball and I believe there will be more power on the way for him.

His career minor league ISO of .277 would have been the fourth-highest ISO in baseball in 2022. Minor league numbers don’t always translate to the big leagues, but it’s pretty clear to see that he can do it. And exit velocity and barrel numbers do tend to translate to power. Pasquantino’s average exit velocity of 91.2 MPH ranked 35th in baseball among hitters with 200 or more batted ball events. That slotted him right behind Salvador Perez, Ryan Mountcastle, Freddie Freeman, Albert Pujols and Ronald Acuña Jr. on a list of 281 hitters. His barrel rate wasn’t quite as impressive at 83rd, but that’s still top-third in the league. His maximum exit velocity ranked 69th and his overall hard-hit rate ranked 39th.

These are all strong indicators that he can show more power than he did in his 298 plate appearance sample in 2022. His expected stats also indicate he could have been better already with an xSLG of .476 compared to the actual SLG of .450. This already started to normalize as he got big league time, but his groundball rate was an early issue for him. He ended the year with grounders on 40.9 percent of batted balls, but that took a bit to come down after he was hitting a lot on the ground early. This was never a problem for him in the minors, with groundball rates between 32.3 percent and 35.7 percent.

At this point, I’ve barely even touched on the outstanding plate appearances, but part of that is you know it. In the last three full seasons, there have only been nine qualifying seasons of a hitter walking at least as much as he struck out. The lowest wRC+ of those nine was this year at 124 and that was Stephen Kwan, a rookie who isn’t a power threat at all. The highest was Alex Bregman’s 167 in his outstanding 2019 season. I don’t know if Pasquantino can keep it up over the course of a full big league season, but I also wouldn’t put it past him. As a professional, he now has a 12.1 percent walk rate and a 12.9 percent walk rate. Take away his first year in rookie ball and those numbers jump and fall respectively to 12.4 percent and 12.2 percent. This is who he is. And it’s darn good.

But, again, it’s the position. What do you pay a first baseman/designated hitter who is already set to make the league minimum for the next three seasons, which happen to be his age 25, 26 and 27 seasons? I think it’s fair to assume that if he’s able to keep this up and even improve on those numbers that even with the defensive limitations, he’ll find himself getting a pretty penny in arbitration for those final three years. But the first question I’d ask is if the Royals should be locking in someone like Pasquantino when the first basemen/DH types tend to get discarded once they get too expensive. The answer is subjective. If you think he’s an elite hitter, you absolutely sign him up. If you think he’ll fade quickly, then yeah, go year-to-year.

If you do that, you’re looking at around $2.2 million for his pre-arbitration years and then probably something like $5 million, $8 million and $12 million. So that’s six years and $27 million or so. I just used Josh Bell as a guide for what he got through arbitration. But, again, you have to question if he’s Josh Bell or if he’s Freddie Freeman, who had a pretty similar season in 2014 at age 24 to what Pasquantino did in 2022 at age 24. Freeman hit .288/.386/.461 for a 140 wRC+. He struck out more and played a full season, but that’s pretty close. He also rated quite poorly defensively. That age-24 season was also his fourth big league season, so it’s not a perfect comparison, but I thought that was interesting.

So there’s a comp you don’t hear much for Pasquantino. Freeman went on to hit .276/.370/.471 in his age-25 season before he really broke out the next year, hitting .302/.400/.569. He’s been outstanding ever since and signed a massive contract with the Dodgers ahead of the 2022 season. There’s obviously no guarantee that Pasquantino progresses the same way that Freeman did to become one of the best players on the planet, but I don’t think the Royals would be too upset if he did. But even if Pasquantino simply remains the hitter he was in his half-season as a rookie, that’s a hitter you look to extend.

It’s hard to find a young first baseman who signed a contract this early in his career. It’s not really something that gets done terribly often, but I think there are a couple of very good reasons to get it done. The first is that the Royals, as a team, are very inexpensive right now. If they anticipate Pasquantino remaining a top hitter in the game for long enough to deserve a long-term contract, they can find a way to spread out the money a little bit so that when they do start to get a little more expensive, maybe Pasquantino can cost just a little bit less because they frontloaded it.

But the other reason might actually be a little more important for the entirety of the franchise. This is something I’ve mentioned on the radio before, but the Royals are in a place where they would have to pay the bad team tax even on their own players. I think they’d have a bit of a tough time getting a young player to sign on for the better part of a decade when they haven’t seen the steps taken for them to become a winner. Yes, making the moves they’ve made indicate they’re working toward taking those steps, but until they actually win something, there’s no guarantee they will. To get the guy who seems to be the heart of the team signed up long-term could be a great first step in order to get other pieces of their core on board.

Typically when I look at contract extensions, I try to find historical precedents. Freeman is one of the few to sign early. He went through his pre-arbitration years before signing an eight-year deal for $135 million. That carried him through his age-31 season before he hit free agency. I guess that’s something you can look at. He made about $25 million in his three arbitration years and then $106.5 million in the five subsequent years.

Anthony Rizzo did sign a deal that started before he hit a year of service time with the Cubs. He signed for $2 million in what would cover his two pre-arbitration years and then he would have a Super 2 player, so he’d have gone through arbitration for four years. He earned $24 million in those years and then $11 million in what would have been his first free agent year with two separate options for $14.5 million that both got exercised.

Paul Goldschmidt signed his deal with the Diamondbacks that bought out one pre-arbitration year, his arbitration years and one free agent year with an option for the second free agent year that was obviously picked up. That deal was for $17.5 million to cover the arbitration years, $11 million in the first free agent year with a $2 million buyout and $14.5 million for the second free agent year.

With a Pasquantino deal today, you’re starting with all three pre-arbitration years. If you want to sign him through his age-31 season, that’s a seven-year deal. If you figure the $2.2 million or so for the pre-arbitration years and then around $40 million to be close to the Freeman deal but not quite there, you end up around $42ish million for seven years. That kind of makes sense. Could they structure it where he makes $6 million in the pre-arbitration years and then something like $4 million, $6 million, $9 million and $14 million with a $3 million buyout on the option for the following year? You’re never going to get a player to fully front-load a deal, but that could make a lot of sense.

I probably wouldn’t go much longer than that, but if you’re looking at additional seasons, it would be tough to go higher than $21 or $22 million given that only four first basemen in all of baseball have an AAV of more than $20 million. I’d also likely put at least one additional $20 million option at the end of the last year of the deal with that buyout to help spread the money out even more.

It’s certainly early, and if the Royals don’t want to get this deal done right now, I wouldn’t blame them at all. But as much as I don’t think the Royals should succumb to fan pressure on basically any decision, I don’t think it hurts in the public relations game to get a popular player who is already very good signed for years to come. And if it maybe starts a movement that leads to others from their core to sign up long-term, then that’s all the better.

I’m not sure that any team is going to approach what the Braves have done to get their young talent signed long-term, but if the Royals are going to find success, it’s going to start with guys like Pasquantino along with Brady Singer, Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez and others. Someone needs to get the ball rolling, so why not Vinnie?

https://insidethecrown.substack.com/...tino-and-whats

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nf...267272197.html


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-adm...s-in-baseball/

Nate Eaton is #1 with a 98.1 mph average and has a max throw speed of 103.3 MPH.

That's insane.

The next Kansas City WAR machine.

[Jerm]

I’m not pretending to report anything here, certainly nothing ground breaking, but I would put Dusty Wathan as a heavy favorite to get the Royals managerial job. @DBLesky mentioned Matt Quatraro on the pod last night. Not saying it’s down to those two, but I’d bet it’s close.

— Royals Farm Report (@RoyalsFarm) October 20, 2022

[Sassy Squatch]

I'm whelmed.

[cabletech94]

***Wet fart sounds***

[Chiefspants]

I missed a lot of this thread in my absence here this summer. Did we have any Matheny/Eldred holdouts until the very end? You know, the folks who’d insist they weren’t fans of the two but that managers and pitching coaches don’t really do anything and it was all Dayton’s fault or somesuch? That was a loud bunch in 2021 but I wondered if all the firings caused mass celebrations on here like it did everywhere else.

I loved the Royal flush of all of the above this year.

[ChiefsCountry]

Dusty or Quatraro would be fine with me. Both are pretty similar overall.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I missed a lot of this thread in my absence here this summer. Did we have any Matheny/Eldred holdouts until the very end? You know, the folks who’d insist they weren’t fans of the two but that managers and pitching coaches don’t really do anything and it was all Dayton’s fault or somesuch?
That was a loud bunch in 2021 but I wondered if all the firings caused mass celebrations on here like it did everywhere else.

I loved the Royal flush of all of the above this year.

Cosmo said this a lot.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Cosmo said this a lot.

Well, at any rate. Hope he could celebrate like the rest of us when Dayton was let go. Loved the mid 2010's like everyone else - but GMDM's comments this year about our pitching would have made Baghdad Bob blush.

I'll go on the record that I'll support pretty much any manager who...

A. Doesn't lose the players so spectacularly that even the forever Royals mouthpiece Jeffrey Flanagan confirms it.

B. Doesn't constantly trot out bullpen arms like Staumont, Brentz and Barlow 3 games in a row so they can meat grinder their arms for a 74 win season instead of a 69 win one.

[BWillie]

I was flipping through the channels looking for the NBA game and NFL game and I saw these guys playing baseball. I had forgot all about baseball. Like not even a thought of it in a few weeks. Wish there was a way to make it not such a forgetful sport and market their stars better. What Aaron Judge and Otani did this year is out of this world...and why does noone care? I don't care either and I don't know why.

[KChiefs1]

David Lesky: The Complicated Debut Season of Bobby Witt Jr.
It was VERY successful. And it also was kind of disappointing in ways.

Spoiler!

I think baseball fans today expect more out of rookies than ever before. Some of that is due to the constant exposure to them that we didn’t have previously. There are multiple outlets covering prospects extensively when it used to be one or even none. So we know about the top guys coming up and they’re hyped up nationally. Some of it is that there are young players throughout the league who came to the big leagues and made an instant impact in a way that very few had before. And that’s become much more common. So when a rookie comes up and is generally “only” solid, it’s almost seen as a disappointment. I think people were expecting Bobby Witt Jr. to be an All-Star immediately. And instead, he was simply solid.

The overall line - .254/.294/.428 with a 99 wRC+ and 102 OPS+ - screams average. The broadcast, when hyping him up, stayed away from rate stats because rate stats don’t put him toward the top of the rookie class. Only Steven Kwan from the Guardians had more plate appearances than him and no rookie played more games. So the counting stats added up.

That isn’t a knock on Witt. For one thing, actually being on the field is very important. The best ability is availability.

You might recall another former top prospect who played shortstop who hasn’t been able to stay on the field. But being able to be out there is legitimately worth celebrating. And with that, he was able to put up some really good counting stats.

He was third among rookies in home runs. He led all rookies in steals. He led in RBIs. He was second in both doubles and triples. He was third in runs scored. But the wRC+ was 27th. The OBP was 41st. The SLG was 17th. The ISO was 21st. You get the idea. There is absolutely no shame in being just fine as a rookie, but I think it’s also fair to say that he came up well short of expectations when you look at it from the rate stat perspective. Let’s break down his season a little bit.


Defense

The year started with Witt at third base and he made a spectacular play within the first 19 innings of the season.

You might recall that was the 10th inning of a 0-0 game between the Royals and Guardians. There were runners on first and third with one out. Giving up a run in that situation isn’t the worst thing in the world since the Royals were starting with a runner on second as well, but getting that runner out was absolutely massive. And they did end up winning that game in the bottom half of the inning.

He looked good at third. That defense with him at the hot corner, Adalberto Mondesi at shortstop and Whit Merrifield at second was pretty sharp. And Witt rated well at third in the first month of the season with one out above average there. He wasn’t even bad in May when he was playing a lot of third, but also shortstop. He was at zero outs above average in that month.

But then the struggles started. Witt was -3 in June, -4 in July, -4 in August and -2 in September/October. Why? There is no easy answer. Statcast will break down defense by going left, right, in and back. And each month it was a different issue for Witt. Personally I’d never heard any issues with his defense until late in the year last season when there was some talk of him wearing down a little bit. And that kind of matches what the Royals have said about his season. He dealt with shin splints, getting hit in the hand and then a hamstring injury that actually kept him out for a bit in July.

It’s interesting, though, because the more I think back on his defense, the more I think that maybe I actually buy the Royals excuses that I don’t usually buy. Is that because I want them to be right and that Witt can be a great defender or is that because they actually were right? Most of the issues came on plays that you feel like he easily should have made. This ground ball in Toronto was bad.

Video

He boots an inning-ending double play from a slow runner. Is that concentration? Is that the game moving a little faster than he expected? I don’t know, but stuff like that is fixable. What you can’t teach is his ability to range deep to the hole to make a great play.

Video

I know bad defenders can make good plays, but this one was really nice. And we saw that throughout the season. He made some great plays to his left and his right. I think we saw improvement as the season was going on and then maybe some struggles toward the last couple of weeks of the season that lend themselves to him wearing down a bit, though he was on the field.

The question defensively is where is his long-term home? In my opinion, I think he can be perfectly fine at shortstop but he can be legitimately great at third base. He has a strong arm, quick reactions and I believe his issues laterally can be overcome. He rated very well coming in, which can be important for a third baseman, so I love him there.

But it all depends on what the rest of the team can offer. If the Royals believe Maikel Garcia can hit enough to play shortstop long-term, that makes some sense. I don’t think Nicky Lopez can be counted on as an every day option and we know that Adalberto Mondesi can’t be counted on. But Garcia could be what pushes Witt to third. If, however, Garcia can’t hit, I think you find a third baseman (maybe he’s on the team already like Nate Eaton) and let Witt be fine at shortstop. That’s assuming he can get to fine, but I have confidence that’s possible.


Offense

Witt had some hit tool questions coming out of the draft and in his first professional season in 2019. They obviously weren’t huge questions because he still went second overall, but he did hit just .262/.317/.354 in 180 plate appearances in rookie ball that season with a whopping 25.6 percent swinging strike rate. I do sometimes wonder how he’d have fared in the low minors in 2020 if there had been a season, but when he got back to competitive games in 2021, the questions were at least quieter. As you know, he was outstanding at both AA and AAA and he saw his swinging strike rate drop to 15.7 percent in AA and 13 percent in AAA.


It wasn’t just the whiff rate there, but also the strikeout rate, which sat at 24 percent in AA and 22.5 percent in AAA. In today’s game, neither of those numbers are outlandish, but they also aren’t anything special. So that was maybe a bit of a concern, but I think his ability to make loud contact was something that had people a little bit less worried about how that might play in the big leagues. I don’t think the quality of contact translated quite as much as people had hoped it would.

His average exit velocity was in the 65th percentile. That’s good, not great. His barrel percentage was in the 59th percentile. Again, that’s good, not great. His hard hit rate was actually in the 43rd percentile. That’s not good. But his maximum exit velocity was in the 92nd percentile which is great. and I thought that his whiff rate being in the 45th percentile was actually a bit higher than I would have projected coming into the season.

I’ve written a bit about this before, but I wonder how much that hamstring injury in late July actually hurt him. Not physically hurt (though it did hurt, I’m sure), but in the numbers. Prior to the injury, he was hitting .258/.301/.459. That’s a 110 wRC+ with an ISO of just over .200. We can complain about the OBP and the strikeouts and all that, but that’s good stuff. After, he hit .248/.285/.382, which was a wRC+ of 84. It’s maybe a little convenient to say that a hamstring injury torpedoed the numbers, but the ability to do damage to the baseball was just…gone.

His average exit velocity prior to the injury was 90.8 MPH, which ranked in the 84th percentile. His hard-hit rate was 41.5 percent, which ranked in the 62nd percentile. His barrel rate was 8.9 percent, which was in the 63rd percentile. That may be a coincidence, but a hitter without his legs is one who might have some trouble driving the ball. And I think it’s maybe worth mentioning that he was 10 for 14 in steals after the injury after going 20 for 23 before it. I think it’s certainly fair to have questions about how much that hamstring impacted him.

We definitely hurt Mike Matheny and others talk about how the season was taking a toll on him. That, in itself, is maybe a little concerning because if the Royals are going to get where they want to get, Witt is probably the guy they need to be their best player and he needs to figure out how to maintain over the course of a full season. But still, it was his rookie year in the big leagues, playing a demanding defensive position and shifting between two spots on the field. And this is after playing a full season a year after playing zero competitive games. I think it’s certainly a fair expectation that 2023 will be better on that front.

While we can speculate on that, I think it’s fair to say that we know there’s thunder in his bat. This absolute missile off Jose Urquidy (a potential trade target!) was his farthest home run of the year at 443 feet and the fifth-hardest he hit at 109.8 MPH.

Video

While we’re separating his season based on what I thought happened, I feel like after his slow 10-game start that he made an effort just to put bat on ball for a little bit. He had an 11-game hitting streak from April 21 to May 3 where he hit .342 but with just four extra base hits, including his first career home run. Again, this is totally arbitrary, but from after that first home run to the hamstring injury, he hit .264/.309/.487 with 14 doubles, four triples and 13 home runs. That’s a pace of 71 extra base hits over 162 games. It sort of felt like he was putting things together at that point. He had a 119 wRC+ in that stretch that was a little shorter than half of a season. And in that time, he started hitting the ball the other way.

Here’s his line drive/foul ball spray chart from May 4th through the hamstring injury:

Spray Chart

You can see a significantly more all-field approach. With his ability to do damage to the baseball, I think that’s a key for him. You may notice I didn’t include ground balls in those spray charts. Why not? Well, there lies the biggest problem for Witt, in my opinion. Here’s the spray chart:

Spray Chart

He rolls over A LOT. To see that small of a number of grounders to the right side is kind of crazy. I’m not saying you necessarily want to see a lot over there. With his speed, a grounder to the left side could be a hit. But it’s a sign of a bigger problem. I’m actually a little surprised he wasn’t shifted much, though I guess a team might be concerned he’d push a bunt to the right side with his speed, but the issue here is that he might have made (you ready for this?) too much contact.

But wait, wasn’t contact supposedly an issue for him? Why yes, yes it was. And he did swing and miss a fair amount. However! Not all contact is good contact. Let’s say you get, oh I don’t know, a 2-0 fastball off the plate down by one run and he swings the bat to hit a lazy fly ball to center.

Video

There actually aren’t a ton of examples of this, but in swinging at pitches in the shadow zones and the chase zones, he hit just .237 with a .350 SLG. He had an average exit velocity of 86.1 MPH and hit the ball 161 feet on average. He made 57 outs on pitches in the chase zone alone with an average exit velocity of 72.2 MPH. Yes, he had some highlight hits on those pitches because he’s extremely talented, but these aren’t pitches a batter can do much with, clearly. In a weird way, if he swung through more of these, he might actually get a better pitch to hit.

Witt did chase a decent amount. The approach wasn’t what you’d call “good” by any stretch. But I actually think he chased a little less than I maybe expected him to. His chase rate was 34.6 percent, which exceeds big league average by more than five percent. I guess I just had low expectations for that aspect of his game, but it wasn’t like he was Salvador Perez level or anything. His 34.6 percent was lower than Bryce Harper! I know the outlier doesn’t indicate success can be there, but that chase rate is not one that can hamper a career is my point. Jean Segura, Rafael Devers, Albert Pujols, Julio Rodriguez and Trea Turner were some of the names in the neighborhood where Witt was. So he could be better, but not terrible.

But he made contact 61.1 percent of the time when he chased. He hit .237 with a .328 SLG on balls outside the zone. You can succeed in making contact outside the zone. I don’t think Witt is that type of hitter. Harper chased more than Witt, but he made contact less. The same was true of Rodriguez and Turner. Devers was close, Pujols was somehow even higher on the contact. Segura is a different kind of hitter. If you want to do damage to the baseball, as Witt should and does, those just aren’t the pitches to do it on. It’s just not a spot to find results. If Witt had swung and missed at those a little more, you never know where the next pitch might have been. Maybe he does more damage. He absolutely needs to chase less, but if he whiffed more, it may have been a good thing. Not all contact is good contact.


Baserunning

This is the one area I have zero worries about. We all know he was one of the fastest runners in baseball with his sprint speed of 30.4 ft/s tied for second in all of baseball. He had 107 bolts, which was second behind only Trea Turner. A bolt is any run where the sprint speed is at least 30 ft/s, which is considered elite. His home to first time ranked 12th in all of baseball. He was 30 for 37 stealing bases. Witt can run the bases just fine. Fangraphs has a stat, BsR, that rates all runners in baseball. It’s the combination of weighted stolen bases, weighted GIDP runs and ultimate baserunning. Witt ranked fourth in all of baseball. He’ll slow down eventually, but there’s nothing complicated about his baserunning. He’s fast and he runs the bases well.


The Future

It isn’t easy to be a superstar offensive talent with a sub-.300 OBP. It’s possible if you can hit for crazy power, but it’s tough. If anyone has the skillset to be a difference maker with that low of an OBP, it could be Witt. He has elite, game-changing speed. He can hit the ball about as hard as anyone. When he homers, he hits it about as far as anyone, ranking fifth in average home run distance. I have my concerns about his defense, though I do believe he can be better there with a year under his belt. The good news, too, is that because of those tools he possesses, he has the floor of an above average regular, which would be disappointing given the pedigree, but still nice to know that there’s something you can count on.

But still, I do have my concerns about his approach at the plate. I think we all absolutely should because the approach is clearly lacking. I think it’s difficult to watch someone like Vinnie Pasquantino, as selective as he is, make contact the way he does and not wish he could give like 20 percent of that ability to Witt. There is a sharp contrast in the approach that is clear to anyone watching. And if Witt never takes that next step, it’s unequivocally because of that.

But at the same time, I also don’t think it’s fair to say definitively that he won’t take that next step. And that’s where this gets into the person over the data. I think the fact that he doesn’t chase totally wildly like some former top prospect shortstops this team has had leads me to believe that he can make improvements on some of the pitches he goes after while pitchers begin to be a bit more careful with him.


What I do believe in is Witt as a person and a worker. And I believe that as he shows the power is for real (and can maybe carry it through a full season), he won’t get challenged on the edges quite as much because of the risk of hanging those breaking balls. There is no data for this, but I think a full season of experience coupled with the way Witt works with his guys (like Bobby Stroupe, who has done some work with another big KC athlete) will lead to him being able to emphasize what he does well and close some holes on what went poorly for him. His 2022 was a bit complicated in how to evaluate it properly, but I’m personally quite excited to see how he returns in 2023.

https://insidethecrown.substack.com/...eason-of-bobby


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

David Lesky: The Complicated Debut Season of Bobby Witt Jr.
It was VERY successful. And it also was kind of disappointing in ways.

Spoiler!

I think baseball fans today expect more out of rookies than ever before. Some of that is due to the constant exposure to them that we didn’t have previously. There are multiple outlets covering prospects extensively when it used to be one or even none. So we know about the top guys coming up and they’re hyped up nationally. Some of it is that there are young players throughout the league who came to the big leagues and made an instant impact in a way that very few had before. And that’s become much more common. So when a rookie comes up and is generally “only” solid, it’s almost seen as a disappointment. I think people were expecting Bobby Witt Jr. to be an All-Star immediately. And instead, he was simply solid.

The overall line - .254/.294/.428 with a 99 wRC+ and 102 OPS+ - screams average. The broadcast, when hyping him up, stayed away from rate stats because rate stats don’t put him toward the top of the rookie class. Only Steven Kwan from the Guardians had more plate appearances than him and no rookie played more games. So the counting stats added up.

That isn’t a knock on Witt. For one thing, actually being on the field is very important. The best ability is availability.

You might recall another former top prospect who played shortstop who hasn’t been able to stay on the field. But being able to be out there is legitimately worth celebrating. And with that, he was able to put up some really good counting stats.

He was third among rookies in home runs. He led all rookies in steals. He led in RBIs. He was second in both doubles and triples. He was third in runs scored. But the wRC+ was 27th. The OBP was 41st. The SLG was 17th. The ISO was 21st. You get the idea. There is absolutely no shame in being just fine as a rookie, but I think it’s also fair to say that he came up well short of expectations when you look at it from the rate stat perspective. Let’s break down his season a little bit.


Defense

The year started with Witt at third base and he made a spectacular play within the first 19 innings of the season.

You might recall that was the 10th inning of a 0-0 game between the Royals and Guardians. There were runners on first and third with one out. Giving up a run in that situation isn’t the worst thing in the world since the Royals were starting with a runner on second as well, but getting that runner out was absolutely massive. And they did end up winning that game in the bottom half of the inning.

He looked good at third. That defense with him at the hot corner, Adalberto Mondesi at shortstop and Whit Merrifield at second was pretty sharp. And Witt rated well at third in the first month of the season with one out above average there. He wasn’t even bad in May when he was playing a lot of third, but also shortstop. He was at zero outs above average in that month.

But then the struggles started. Witt was -3 in June, -4 in July, -4 in August and -2 in September/October. Why? There is no easy answer. Statcast will break down defense by going left, right, in and back. And each month it was a different issue for Witt. Personally I’d never heard any issues with his defense until late in the year last season when there was some talk of him wearing down a little bit. And that kind of matches what the Royals have said about his season. He dealt with shin splints, getting hit in the hand and then a hamstring injury that actually kept him out for a bit in July.

It’s interesting, though, because the more I think back on his defense, the more I think that maybe I actually buy the Royals excuses that I don’t usually buy. Is that because I want them to be right and that Witt can be a great defender or is that because they actually were right? Most of the issues came on plays that you feel like he easily should have made. This ground ball in Toronto was bad.

Video

He boots an inning-ending double play from a slow runner. Is that concentration? Is that the game moving a little faster than he expected? I don’t know, but stuff like that is fixable. What you can’t teach is his ability to range deep to the hole to make a great play.

Video

I know bad defenders can make good plays, but this one was really nice. And we saw that throughout the season. He made some great plays to his left and his right. I think we saw improvement as the season was going on and then maybe some struggles toward the last couple of weeks of the season that lend themselves to him wearing down a bit, though he was on the field.

The question defensively is where is his long-term home? In my opinion, I think he can be perfectly fine at shortstop but he can be legitimately great at third base. He has a strong arm, quick reactions and I believe his issues laterally can be overcome. He rated very well coming in, which can be important for a third baseman, so I love him there.

But it all depends on what the rest of the team can offer. If the Royals believe Maikel Garcia can hit enough to play shortstop long-term, that makes some sense. I don’t think Nicky Lopez can be counted on as an every day option and we know that Adalberto Mondesi can’t be counted on. But Garcia could be what pushes Witt to third. If, however, Garcia can’t hit, I think you find a third baseman (maybe he’s on the team already like Nate Eaton) and let Witt be fine at shortstop. That’s assuming he can get to fine, but I have confidence that’s possible.


Offense

Witt had some hit tool questions coming out of the draft and in his first professional season in 2019. They obviously weren’t huge questions because he still went second overall, but he did hit just .262/.317/.354 in 180 plate appearances in rookie ball that season with a whopping 25.6 percent swinging strike rate. I do sometimes wonder how he’d have fared in the low minors in 2020 if there had been a season, but when he got back to competitive games in 2021, the questions were at least quieter. As you know, he was outstanding at both AA and AAA and he saw his swinging strike rate drop to 15.7 percent in AA and 13 percent in AAA.


It wasn’t just the whiff rate there, but also the strikeout rate, which sat at 24 percent in AA and 22.5 percent in AAA. In today’s game, neither of those numbers are outlandish, but they also aren’t anything special. So that was maybe a bit of a concern, but I think his ability to make loud contact was something that had people a little bit less worried about how that might play in the big leagues. I don’t think the quality of contact translated quite as much as people had hoped it would.

His average exit velocity was in the 65th percentile. That’s good, not great. His barrel percentage was in the 59th percentile. Again, that’s good, not great. His hard hit rate was actually in the 43rd percentile. That’s not good. But his maximum exit velocity was in the 92nd percentile which is great. and I thought that his whiff rate being in the 45th percentile was actually a bit higher than I would have projected coming into the season.

I’ve written a bit about this before, but I wonder how much that hamstring injury in late July actually hurt him. Not physically hurt (though it did hurt, I’m sure), but in the numbers. Prior to the injury, he was hitting .258/.301/.459. That’s a 110 wRC+ with an ISO of just over .200. We can complain about the OBP and the strikeouts and all that, but that’s good stuff. After, he hit .248/.285/.382, which was a wRC+ of 84. It’s maybe a little convenient to say that a hamstring injury toraudioed the numbers, but the ability to do damage to the baseball was just…gone.

His average exit velocity prior to the injury was 90.8 MPH, which ranked in the 84th percentile. His hard-hit rate was 41.5 percent, which ranked in the 62nd percentile. His barrel rate was 8.9 percent, which was in the 63rd percentile. That may be a coincidence, but a hitter without his legs is one who might have some trouble driving the ball. And I think it’s maybe worth mentioning that he was 10 for 14 in steals after the injury after going 20 for 23 before it. I think it’s certainly fair to have questions about how much that hamstring impacted him.

We definitely hurt Mike Matheny and others talk about how the season was taking a toll on him. That, in itself, is maybe a little concerning because if the Royals are going to get where they want to get, Witt is probably the guy they need to be their best player and he needs to figure out how to maintain over the course of a full season. But still, it was his rookie year in the big leagues, playing a demanding defensive position and shifting between two spots on the field. And this is after playing a full season a year after playing zero competitive games. I think it’s certainly a fair expectation that 2023 will be better on that front.

While we can speculate on that, I think it’s fair to say that we know there’s thunder in his bat. This absolute missile off Jose Urquidy (a potential trade target!) was his farthest home run of the year at 443 feet and the fifth-hardest he hit at 109.8 MPH.

Video

While we’re separating his season based on what I thought happened, I feel like after his slow 10-game start that he made an effort just to put bat on ball for a little bit. He had an 11-game hitting streak from April 21 to May 3 where he hit .342 but with just four extra base hits, including his first career home run. Again, this is totally arbitrary, but from after that first home run to the hamstring injury, he hit .264/.309/.487 with 14 doubles, four triples and 13 home runs. That’s a pace of 71 extra base hits over 162 games. It sort of felt like he was putting things together at that point. He had a 119 wRC+ in that stretch that was a little shorter than half of a season. And in that time, he started hitting the ball the other way.

Here’s his line drive/foul ball spray chart from May 4th through the hamstring injury:

Spray Chart

You can see a significantly more all-field approach. With his ability to do damage to the baseball, I think that’s a key for him. You may notice I didn’t include ground balls in those spray charts. Why not? Well, there lies the biggest problem for Witt, in my opinion. Here’s the spray chart:

Spray Chart

He rolls over A LOT. To see that small of a number of grounders to the right side is kind of crazy. I’m not saying you necessarily want to see a lot over there. With his speed, a grounder to the left side could be a hit. But it’s a sign of a bigger problem. I’m actually a little surprised he wasn’t shifted much, though I guess a team might be concerned he’d push a bunt to the right side with his speed, but the issue here is that he might have made (you ready for this?) too much contact.

But wait, wasn’t contact supposedly an issue for him? Why yes, yes it was. And he did swing and miss a fair amount. However! Not all contact is good contact. Let’s say you get, oh I don’t know, a 2-0 fastball off the plate down by one run and he swings the bat to hit a lazy fly ball to center.

Video

There actually aren’t a ton of examples of this, but in swinging at pitches in the shadow zones and the chase zones, he hit just .237 with a .350 SLG. He had an average exit velocity of 86.1 MPH and hit the ball 161 feet on average. He made 57 outs on pitches in the chase zone alone with an average exit velocity of 72.2 MPH. Yes, he had some highlight hits on those pitches because he’s extremely talented, but these aren’t pitches a batter can do much with, clearly. In a weird way, if he swung through more of these, he might actually get a better pitch to hit.

Witt did chase a decent amount. The approach wasn’t what you’d call “good” by any stretch. But I actually think he chased a little less than I maybe expected him to. His chase rate was 34.6 percent, which exceeds big league average by more than five percent. I guess I just had low expectations for that aspect of his game, but it wasn’t like he was Salvador Perez level or anything. His 34.6 percent was lower than Bryce Harper! I know the outlier doesn’t indicate success can be there, but that chase rate is not one that can hamper a career is my point. Jean Segura, Rafael Devers, Albert Pujols, Julio Rodriguez and Trea Turner were some of the names in the neighborhood where Witt was. So he could be better, but not terrible.

But he made contact 61.1 percent of the time when he chased. He hit .237 with a .328 SLG on balls outside the zone. You can succeed in making contact outside the zone. I don’t think Witt is that type of hitter. Harper chased more than Witt, but he made contact less. The same was true of Rodriguez and Turner. Devers was close, Pujols was somehow even higher on the contact. Segura is a different kind of hitter. If you want to do damage to the baseball, as Witt should and does, those just aren’t the pitches to do it on. It’s just not a spot to find results. If Witt had swung and missed at those a little more, you never know where the next pitch might have been. Maybe he does more damage. He absolutely needs to chase less, but if he whiffed more, it may have been a good thing. Not all contact is good contact.


Baserunning

This is the one area I have zero worries about. We all know he was one of the fastest runners in baseball with his sprint speed of 30.4 ft/s tied for second in all of baseball. He had 107 bolts, which was second behind only Trea Turner. A bolt is any run where the sprint speed is at least 30 ft/s, which is considered elite. His home to first time ranked 12th in all of baseball. He was 30 for 37 stealing bases. Witt can run the bases just fine. Fangraphs has a stat, BsR, that rates all runners in baseball. It’s the combination of weighted stolen bases, weighted GIDP runs and ultimate baserunning. Witt ranked fourth in all of baseball. He’ll slow down eventually, but there’s nothing complicated about his baserunning. He’s fast and he runs the bases well.


The Future

It isn’t easy to be a superstar offensive talent with a sub-.300 OBP. It’s possible if you can hit for crazy power, but it’s tough. If anyone has the skillset to be a difference maker with that low of an OBP, it could be Witt. He has elite, game-changing speed. He can hit the ball about as hard as anyone. When he homers, he hits it about as far as anyone, ranking fifth in average home run distance. I have my concerns about his defense, though I do believe he can be better there with a year under his belt. The good news, too, is that because of those tools he possesses, he has the floor of an above average regular, which would be disappointing given the pedigree, but still nice to know that there’s something you can count on.

But still, I do have my concerns about his approach at the plate. I think we all absolutely should because the approach is clearly lacking. I think it’s difficult to watch someone like Vinnie Pasquantino, as selective as he is, make contact the way he does and not wish he could give like 20 percent of that ability to Witt. There is a sharp contrast in the approach that is clear to anyone watching. And if Witt never takes that next step, it’s unequivocally because of that.

But at the same time, I also don’t think it’s fair to say definitively that he won’t take that next step. And that’s where this gets into the person over the data. I think the fact that he doesn’t chase totally wildly like some former top prospect shortstops this team has had leads me to believe that he can make improvements on some of the pitches he goes after while pitchers begin to be a bit more careful with him.


What I do believe in is Witt as a person and a worker. And I believe that as he shows the power is for real (and can maybe carry it through a full season), he won’t get challenged on the edges quite as much because of the risk of hanging those breaking balls. There is no data for this, but I think a full season of experience coupled with the way Witt works with his guys (like Bobby Stroupe, who has done some work with another big KC athlete) will lead to him being able to emphasize what he does well and close some holes on what went poorly for him. His 2022 was a bit complicated in how to evaluate it properly, but I’m personally quite excited to see how he returns in 2023.

https://insidethecrown.substack.com/...eason-of-bobby


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks for sharing. This is a really great breakdown of Bobby Witt.

If he's Trevor Story minus Coors Field, that's still a really good and valuable player.

I don't think he's as rough at SS as the numbers say he was this year (meaning: Long-term he can play a solid SS). He didn't seem to handle moving back and forth as well as you'd expect - some guys handle that better than others.

[OKchiefs]

I love the multiple poorly veiled shots at Mondesi in that article.