***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

This is extremely discomfiting:

Just received word from an ICU doctor at a small NY hospital: They are officially out of ventilators and are now double venting patients with COVID (using the same ventilator for 2 infected patients). Do everything possible to avoid infection. PLEASE ISOLATE as best you can.

— Peter Attia (@PeterAttiaMD) March 18, 2020

I wonder if politicians and NBA players have ventilators set aside for them?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by TLO

Do you think we're "slowing the curve" enough?

Not enough tests to really determine at this time.

The next 10 days could be very crucial, however.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Not enough tests to really determine at this time.

The next 10 days could be very crucial, however.

Do you mean in the number of positive tests we see or how crowded hospitals become?

[Fat Elvis]

I apologize in advance for not knowing how to attach screenshots, but we went from 4,661 cases in the US on 3.16.20 to 9,077 just 48 hours later on 3.18.20. That spike is despite many people being turned away from testing.

rel="Lightbox"?s=88f9fd8ab5c3651dbca07dbdfcac8b88&attachmentid=120078&thumb=1&d=1584584138" class="thumbnail" border="0" alt="Click image for larger version Name: Covid19 March 16.jpg Views: 316 Size: 50.2 KB ID: 120078" style="margin: 2px" />

rel="Lightbox"?s=88f9fd8ab5c3651dbca07dbdfcac8b88&attachmentid=120079&thumb=1&d=1584584178" class="thumbnail" border="0" alt="Click image for larger version Name: COVID19 March 17.jpg Views: 293 Size: 50.1 KB ID: 120079" style="margin: 2px" />

rel="Lightbox"?s=88f9fd8ab5c3651dbca07dbdfcac8b88&attachmentid=120080&thumb=1&d=1584584188" class="thumbnail" border="0" alt="Click image for larger version Name: COVID19 March 18.jpg Views: 336 Size: 48.2 KB ID: 120080" style="margin: 2px" />

[sedated]

As others have noted, I'm not sure cases is as important as the ratio of cases that become critical cases, and then critical cases to deaths.

[TLO]

We know we're gonna see a spike in numbers. At least, that seems very logical. ( But maybe by some miracle we won't see a huge spike outside of areas already hit hard)

These are dark times. I feel as though I'm going to lose loved ones around me, if not my own life. Maybe I'm overreacting, but today I'm thinking more clearly than I have for 2 weeks. All I want to do is stay home. I want to gather up my family and try to keep them all safe. Quit my job, whatever. (Though this is probably the worst thing we could possibly do)

I feel so bad for those who have already lost loved ones. May they find peace and comfort.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I was adding important context that was missing. Hadn’t read beyond that.

preparing is a specific word in a hospital. That the public doesn’t receive the same way.

It’s breaking news that the Trump admin is preparing for this to last 18-24 months. That doesn’t mean they are expecting it to last 18-24 months, just preparing, just in case.

Hospitals should be preparing and acting like they are going to be at capacity. It’s no longer some hypothetical drills. It’s break glass time.

[FloridaMan88]

COVID-19 shutting down publication of Playboy magazine.

Link: https://medium.com/naked-open-letter...s-b859b1a4c663

[mr. tegu]

The nationwide number of people confirmed to have it is largely pointless. We are more spread out but we also haven’t been testing much and are just now increasing it. This thing has been here since late January. There are probably a good 100,00 current cases in total with varying levels of severity. The numbers “suggest” there’s a bunch of new infections in the last few days alone but it’s important to realize that’s definitely not the case. What matters more than reported cases is the ones going to the hospital, but even more so, the ones going to the same hospitals in the same region at the same time.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by TLO

We know we're gonna see a spike in numbers. At least, that seems very logical. ( But maybe by some miracle we won't see a huge spike outside of areas already hit hard)

These are dark times. I feel as though I'm going to lose loved ones around me, if not my own life. Maybe I'm overreacting, but today I'm thinking more clearly than I have for 2 weeks. All I want to do is stay home. I want to gather up my family and try to keep them all safe. Quit my job, whatever. (Though this is probably the worst thing we could possibly do)

I feel so bad for those who have already lost loved ones. May they find peace and comfort.

You and your family will be fine. Just take a deep breath and relax. The vast majority of tests come back negative, of the few that come back positive, very, very few become critical.

Yes it sucks. Yes, it can be scary. But guess what? People are fighting it. People are taking it seriously. You and your family will be OK.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

You and your family will be fine. Just take a deep breath and relax. The vast majority of tests come back negative, of the few that come back positive, very, very few become critical.

Yes it sucks. Yes, it can be scary. But guess what? People are fighting it. People are taking it seriously. You and your family will be OK.

Elvis - you're a good person. Thank you so much for your words of encouragement.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I wonder if politicians and NBA players have ventilators set aside for them?

politicians or at least the ones that are essential. The government has had emergency plans since the Cold War. Whole hospitals already set up, ready to go at a moments notice. The last one they used for 30 years got outed in 2011.


https://www.npr.org/2011/03/26/13437...ess-never-used

[TLO]

Originally Posted by sedated

As others have noted, I'm not sure cases is as important as the ratio of cases that become critical cases, and then critical cases to deaths.

Do we have numbers on those ratios right now?

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

You and your family will be fine. Just take a deep breath and relax. The vast majority of tests come back negative, of the few that come back positive, very, very few become critical.

Yes it sucks. Yes, it can be scary. But guess what? People are fighting it. People are taking it seriously. You and your family will be OK.

Boom! Well said.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by TLO

Do we have numbers on those ratios right now?

DJ's Left Nut broke it down about a day ago, and it was pretty optimistic (so far)