***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Wheres Dr. Fauci? Two days in a row he hasn't been at the press conference. The most knowledgeable person on the planet with infectious diseases isn't there. He's the only one not lying to us or giving us a bunch of BS. #wheresfauci

He was on CNN last night.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'm also curious what the mortality timelines are.

Does it appear that the people who are popping positive then dying are dying within 72 hours or are they limping along for 6-8 days before dying?

If it's the former, the death rate is unlikely to spike in any meaningful way - they're already baked into the pie so to speak. If it's the latter, it'll probably continue to decline a bit as the denominator gets bigger before the deaths start to result, but then we'll see an inexorable climb towards those spooky 7-8% mortality rates that have people so fearful of the Italy situation.

If you look at this site that's been mentioned before https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6, the ratio of deaths to closed cases (dead or recovered) is currently at 9.9 percent. When we first found the web site, it was at 6.3 percent. While it doesn't directly answer your question, the fact that it's rising means that death occurs faster than recovery in cases where one or the other has happened. So right now, the sad stories are disproportionately high compared to happy stories. Once we get the spread under control, that'll reverse.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

via GIPHY

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Dude. Are you just completely incapable of making a post in this thread that doesn't try to coyly allude to government failure? Get the **** out of the thread if you can't help yourself.

The sad part is the media is spending just as much if not even more time on the politics of this.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

If you look at this site that's been mentioned before https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6, the ratio of deaths to closed cases (dead or recovered) is currently at 9.9 percent. When we first found the web site, it was at 6.3 percent. While it doesn't directly answer your question, the fact that it's rising means that death occurs faster than recovery in cases where one or the other has happened. So right now, the sad stories are disproportionately high compared to happy stories. Once we get the spread under control, that'll reverse.

Or once we start seeing cases en masse recover. It does take longer to list cases as "recovered" so spikes will happen there.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The sad part is the media is spending just as much if not even more time on the politics of this.

I don't really care. I barely watch the news. I (like many) am primarily keeping up on everything in this thread.

I just couldn't care less about who is to blame in all of this. It's devastating people around the world from all walks of life and all forms of government.

Just keep the blame game shit out of this thread. It shouldn't be that hard.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

Howard County MD has a 5-year old one critical condition

Where's the info on that one? Curious to learn a bit more.

From what I can see she's tested positive for it, but I have seen no indication that she's been announced as critical.

[petegz28]

Italy has now surpassed China in deaths. There is something wrong going on over there.

[Mennonite]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I just couldn't care less about who is to blame in all of this.

whew - that's a relief. I was a little nervous about posting my raw bat salad recipe in the FMB thread, but if you're cool with it...

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

STOP REPORTING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS STATISTICS AS IF THEY ARE ACCURATE. https://t.co/Ro01qnw8cD

— Isaac Stone Fish (@isaacstonefish) March 19, 2020

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I don't really care. I barely watch the news. I (like many) am primarily keeping up on everything in this thread.

I just couldn't care less about who is to blame in all of this. It's devastating people around the world from all walks of life and all forms of government.

Just keep the blame game shit out of this thread. It shouldn't be that hard.

totally agreed

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Or once we start seeing cases en masse recover. It does take longer to list cases as "recovered" so spikes will happen there.

I've recommended it twice, but seriously - everyone needs to go look at the animated versions of those 'flatten the curve' simulations.

They do an outstanding job of truly demonstrating how all that will work, especially the ones that also have trackers at the bottom that show the respective 'group' populations.

As you noted, the infected group explodes initially, then you see a slight tick up in deaths, then a slight tick in recoveries, all the while infections are climbing and staying well above both on the scales. Then over a period of weeks, the scales invert, recovery exceeds infected and deaths start to really trickle off as a proportion of the cases.

If one puts stock in the 'curve' at all, go find some of the animated simulations.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

STOP REPORTING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS STATISTICS AS IF THEY ARE ACCURATE. https://t.co/Ro01qnw8cD

— Isaac Stone Fish (@isaacstonefish) March 19, 2020

Care to summarize? I'm not registering to read an article.

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Dude. Are you just completely incapable of making a post in this thread that doesn't try to coyly allude to government failure? Get the **** out of the thread if you can't help yourself.

^

[loochy]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'm also curious what the mortality timelines are.

Does it appear that the people who are popping positive then dying are dying within 72 hours or are they limping along for 6-8 days before dying?

If it's the former, the death rate is unlikely to spike in any meaningful way - they're already baked into the pie so to speak. If it's the latter, it'll probably continue to decline a bit as the denominator gets bigger before the deaths start to result, but then we'll see an inexorable climb towards those spooky 7-8% mortality rates that have people so fearful of the Italy situation.

It's the latter. We'll need to wait a bit unti we really know.