***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Mennonite]

The numbers in Washington state, which has done far more testing per capita than any other US state, are mildly encouraging:

new cases by day per @COVID19Tracking:
3/11: 105
3/12: 70
3/13: 120
3/14: 111
3/15: 74
3/16: 127
3/17: 135
3/18: 108

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 19, 2020

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Where's the info on that one? Curious to learn a bit more.

From what I can see she's tested positive for it, but I have seen no indication that she's been announced as critical.

Sorry got bad info she just has it.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by O.city

Like his policies or not, but Pence is a natural at this.

Praise baby Jesus this isn’t an opioid/HIV epidemic in Indiana.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I've recommended it twice, but seriously - everyone needs to go look at the animated versions of those 'flatten the curve' simulations.

They do an outstanding job of truly demonstrating how all that will work, especially the ones that also have trackers at the bottom that show the respective 'group' populations.

As you noted, the infected group explodes initially, then you see a slight tick up in deaths, then a slight tick in recoveries, all the while infections are climbing and staying well above both on the scales. Then over a period of weeks, the scales invert, recovery exceeds infected and deaths start to really trickle off as a proportion of the cases.

If one puts stock in the 'curve' at all, go find some of the animated simulations.

Are you referring to the ones in a Washington Post article from a few weeks ago, or do you have a link to the ones you're talking about?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Mennonite

The numbers in Washington state, which has done far more testing per capita than any other US state, are mildly encouraging:

new cases by day per @COVID19Tracking:
3/11: 105
3/12: 70
3/13: 120
3/14: 111
3/15: 74
3/16: 127
3/17: 135
3/18: 108

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 19, 2020

That is encouraging. And, the area was the first to basically go into semi-lockdown. Let's hope the trend continues.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

.

Really?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Italy has now surpassed China in deaths. There is something wrong going on over there.

That or China is lying about their numbers

[Donger]

The coronavirus measures in place in the hard hit Lombardy region of northern Italy are “not strict enough,” according to Chinese medical experts helping the country deal with the crisis.

The situation in Lombardy right now "is similar to what we experienced two months ago in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of COVID-19," the Chinese Red Cross vice president, Sun Shuopeng, said Thursday in a press conference in Milan, Italy.

"In the city of Wuhan after one month since the adoption of the lockdown policy, we see a decreasing trend from the peak of the disease," Sun Shuopeng said. "Here in Milan, the hardest hit area by COVID-19, there isn't a very strict lockdown: public transportation is still working and people are still moving around, you're still having dinners and parties in the hotels and you're not wearing masks. We need every citizen to be involved in the fight of COVID-19 and follow this policy.”

He advised Italians to stop all “economic activities and cut the mobility of people.”

Everyone should just stay at home, he added.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by Monticore

0.95$ litre up here.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Constitutional law is abundantly clear on the right to interstate travel.

So again, absent a suspension of the Constitution and the imposition of martial law, there's no way to ban travel from state to state.

Now there is a caveat there that's not 100% fleshed out - there isn't necessarily a right to use public roads.

So could the government lock down federal highways? Hmmmm.....maybe?

I hope so. I have an out of state job coming up that will be essential in helping my family get through this.

Big job that was on the books was forced to cancel on Monday.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

Sorry got bad info she just has it.

Preciate the follow-up.

As noted - I'm not the slightest bit concerned about myself or even my wife who works in healthcare. I'm nominally concerned about my parents and grandparents.

But any/all information I can get on its impact on children has my antenna up so obviously that turned my head a bit. Certainly hoping for the best possible outcome as that's been the lone saving grace of this pain in the ass.

You want to really start scaring people, don't threaten their parents - threaten their children.

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

A large boulder the size of a small boulder?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Are you referring to the ones in a Washington Post article from a few weeks ago, or do you have a link to the ones you're talking about?

Sorry, I really don't know where I saw them.

Colored animations w/ 4 different populations (healthy, infected, recovered, dead) and a day over day breakdown of how all those interacted together using various remedial measures.

I think I saw it about a week ago but time is pretty much a flat circle at this point so I have no idea if that's right.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

Does that make it a "medium" boulder?

[Marcellus]

Hey guys here is a bunch of info on chloroquine as a treatment or preventative measure. Sounds encouraging.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...VjIL-7deJ7/pub