***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

And ultimately that's the problem.

All I know is that I'm fully preparing for public pandemonium once we REALLY kick testing into gear across the country. If we see a giant spike in numbers (which we very well may), people are going to lose their shit.

I'm cautiously optimistic by the numbers coming out of Washington though. Once thought to be the epicenter of the outbreak, they are reporting fairly low confirmed cases as the days go by.

Don't forget that we have numbers from countries which had this long before we did. China has flattened at 82,000 cases and 3,200 deaths. We haven't taken the same measures they have, but there's no real reason to think that we'll end up with 1,000,000 cases with the measures we have taken.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

If we had 1MM cases of H1N1 on day 72 of the outbreak and we didn't shut the country down, and you are saying the only reason we don't have that many positives right now in the US is because of testing, how do you justify the difference?

If we have 1MM current cases then the mortality rate is in alignment with H1N1.

To be clear, I'm not saying that is the only reason why we don't have more positives now. The truth is, without a lot of data, it is really hard exactly where we stand. Based upon the data we *do* have, the R0 value of Covid-19 is up to a full point higher than H1N1 and the death rate seems to be about 10x higher.

I think it may of been Singapore, but they seemed to have a really effective strategy of both limiting movement *and* isolating those who were more vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 prior to potential exposure/infection. They seemed to have emerged relatively unscathed thus far.

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Imagine spending your entire life raising a kid and this is how they turn out. https://t.co/SyKI5SvEcp
— Chelsea Handler (@chelseahandler) March 19, 2020

Find all of these people in three months.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by displacedinMN

Ralph's at 10901 Ventura Blvd, Studio City, CA 91604???
I have been there. Saw the UPS driver from Legally Blonde when I was there.

Yes, sir!

My 10 year old (at the time) was and still is a HUGE Journey fan. On Christmas Eve, 2018, I took her to the store to buy food for Christmas Dinner and we ran into the One & Only, Steve Perry!

He was extremely nice and gracious and even took a few pictures with my daughter. She printed out the photo of her and Steve and put it on the cover of her school notebook, used it as a screensaver, etc.

I've run into tons of musicians (most of whom I've known) and actors/actresses there.

[Spott]

Originally Posted by displacedinMN

Ralph's at 10901 Ventura Blvd, Studio City, CA 91604???
I have been there. Saw the UPS driver from Legally Blonde when I was there.

Is that by the In-N-Out Burger?

[neech]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Can someone explain this to me because I am honestly at a loss on this.

H1N1 first case was April 15th 2009, day 72 was June 26th and there were 1MM known cases in the US.

This is day 72 of Covid 19 and we are around 10,000 know n cases. This cant be THAt much lower just due to lack of testing can it?

Here is the timeline.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html

Tell me about it, doesn't make sense.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

But according to your numbers isn't nearly as contagious because it would be about 975,000 cases behind H1N1 in the same timeline when we did no lock down.

You get what I am saying yet?

H1N1 had an R0 of 1.5. This bug is estimated at 2 to 3.

And, it's deadlier.

So, it's clear why these actions have been taken with SARS-CoV-2 that weren't with H1N1.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Spott

Is that by the In-N-Out Burger?

The In-N-Out is a few blocks northeast on basically Lankershim and Ventura, so it's less than a mile away.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

H1N1 had an R0 of 1.5. This bug is estimated at 2 to 3.

And, it's deadlier.

So, it's clear why these actions have been taken with SARS-CoV-2 that weren't with H1N1.

I disagree. By your own theoretical numbers we won't have near 16,000 deaths nor would we without the lock down which is what H1N1 had.

Also by your numbers its not as contagious as I easily pointed out.

[TLO]

Comparing H1N1 and this virus is a future exercise. I wanted to try and do the same in the beginning, but they're not comparable.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Imagine spending your entire life raising a kid and this is how they turn out. https://t.co/SyKI5SvEcp

— Chelsea Handler (@chelseahandler) March 19, 2020

Originally Posted by Bwana

Find all of these people in three months.

Found them: http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/forumdisplay.php?f=30

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Spott

Is that by the In-N-Out Burger?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Find all of these people in three months.

hospitalized? Dead? Future Darwin Award winners?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

I think it may of been Singapore, but they seemed to have a really effective strategy of both limiting movement *and* isolating those who were more vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 prior to potential exposure/infection. They seemed to have emerged relatively unscathed thus far.

Do you think the US has done enough to take enough steps to be comparable to Singapore?

Edit - Never mind. It's not really easy to compare somewhere the size of Singapore to the US

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by neech

So does that mean we still have to pay say the utility company if we get a pass on a couple months of those bills?

I'll go out on a limb and give that a hard yes.