The whole key to the offseason right here

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

I think ford and a 2nd is way too much for 30 and a 4th.

It very well may be because he's could be worth #12.

That said, if I'm the GM of another team, I'm devaluing Ford significantly for a few reasons if I'm trading for him.
1. He's relatively one-dimensional. Although his backside pursuit against the run was significantly better this season, he's still a liability when run directly at.
2. He's had a back injury history, which seldom go completely away.
3. There's a good class of FA edge rushers and a good class of edge rushers in the draft, plus if KC retains Ford there's a good chance they have to cut Houston who'd be a good signing.

I placed his value at a 2nd and 4th, but again that's being pretty conservative.

[Chief Northman]

Originally Posted by kccrow

It very well may be because he's could be worth #12.

That said, if I'm the GM of another team, I'm devaluing Ford significantly for a few reasons if I'm trading for him.
1. He's relatively one-dimensional. Although his backside pursuit against the run was significantly better this season, he's still a liability when run directly at.
2. He's had a back injury history, which seldom go completely away.
3. There's a good class of FA edge rushers and a good class of edge rushers in the draft, plus if KC retains Ford there's a good chance they have to cut Houston who'd be a good signing.

I placed his value at a 2nd and 4th, but again that's being pretty conservative.

That seems like a fair assessment. I would hope this would be garnered from a bottom 12 picking team (top 12 picks), otherwise that value begins to decrease a bunch.

My money is still on Ford being retained by KC, and Houston cut.

[Chiefshrink]

Shane Ray is soft. Always hurt.

[Iowanian]

Ford has been healthy and productive one season...one. His contract year. He's a liability against the run too. Fords r
Trade value wouldn't be higher than this year.

Houston has injury concerns as well and hasn t performed to his contract since he got paid.

I don't care hat the Chiefs do with either one....renegotiate, re-sign or trade for the best deal. Don't care.

[BossChief]

Cut

Murray
Berry
Sorenson
Ragland

Trade Ford and a mid for a first in the early 20s
Trade Houston and a third for a second

Sign

Earl Thomas
Kareem Jackson/Jason McCourtey
Shane Ray
Trey Flowers

Extend

Hill
Jones

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Cut

Murray
Berry
Sorenson
Ragland

Trade Ford and a mid for a first in the early 20s
Trade Houston and a third for a second

Sign

Earl Thomas
Kareem Jackson/Jason McCourtey
Shane Ray
Trey Flowers

Extend

Hill
Jones

I could get down with this

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Cut

Murray
Berry
Sorenson
Ragland

Trade Ford and a mid for a first in the early 20s
Trade Houston and a third for a second

Sign

Earl Thomas
Kareem Jackson/Jason McCourtey
Shane Ray
Trey Flowers

Extend

Hill
Jones

that'd be dope but I doubt you can do all of that.

[Chief Northman]

Here's the trouble from my POV:

- As soon as Ford is tagged, his tag number ($15-16 million) automatically counts against the 2019 salary cap, signed or not.
- Houston's cap number is $21 million, and the Chiefs would incur a $7.1 million hit in dead money with his release, but free up $14 million in cap space - this $14 million almost accounts for Ford's 2019 salary/cap hit.
- I get the notion of getting a high pick for Ford if he can be traded, BUT:
i) The longer a trade takes to develop, the longer you are hampered with Ford's cap number counting against the salary cap - this is a problem as all teams want as much cap/money available at the start of free agency.
ii) Ford can wait quite a while to sign if he wants, hampering the Chiefs ability to acquire free agents, or if he does not desire a rumored/negotiated trade.
iii) You have to be sure you are getting fair value in a Ford trade: teams know that waiting a bit on trading for a tagged Ford can/will bring down the trade value. Teams will apply pressure on the cap-strapped Chiefs in any trade talks as they know his cap hit applies the moment he is tagged.

This is the greater reason why we are likely hearing of a Ford tag/retention, Houston release - the Chiefs need $$$$$$ at the start of free agency, and don't want to be left standing on the outside while players sign deals elsewhere. The Chiefs cap flexibility is a delicate balance given the circumstances of the big contracts (Ford/Houston/Berry).

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Here's the trouble from my POV:

- As soon as Ford is tagged, his tag number ($15-16 million) automatically counts against the 2019 salary cap, signed or not.
- Houston's cap number is $21 million, and the Chiefs would incur a $7.1 million hit in dead money with his release, but free up $14 million in cap space - this $14 million almost accounts for Ford's 2019 salary/cap hit.
- I get the notion of getting a high pick for Ford if he can be traded, BUT:
i) The longer a trade takes to develop, the longer you are hampered with Ford's cap number counting against the salary cap - this is a problem as all teams want as much cap/money available at the start of free agency.
ii) Ford can wait quite a while to sign if he wants, hampering the Chiefs ability to acquire free agents, or if he does not desire a rumored/negotiated trade.
iii) You have to be sure you are getting fair value in a Ford trade: teams know that waiting a bit on trading for a tagged Ford can/will bring down the trade value. Teams will apply pressure on the cap-strapped Chiefs in any trade talks as they know his cap hit applies the moment he is tagged.

This is the greater reason why we are likely hearing of a Ford tag/retention, Houston release - the Chiefs need $$$$$$ at the start of free agency, and don't want to be left standing on the outside while players sign deals elsewhere. The Chiefs cap flexibility is a delicate balance given the circumstances of the big contracts (Ford/Houston/Berry).

that's fair, but-Ford's tag money comes off as soon as a trade gets done.
He's the most talented pure pass rusher available. he's going to be sought after. I think it more likely that teams are competing to nab him than ignoring and waiting.

You have some cap money early-until you get all your own guys done and draftees signed. They literally have enough money right at the start of FA to sign a Landon Collins; you just have other bills you need to pay so you can't unless there's cap relief elsewhere. You've got plenty of time before those bills are due. You've got $25 million or so right now; you just need a bunch of that before camp. you could sign a couple of guys and wait on some other things, like extending players.

You can shop, talk, and negotiate with players; you don't have to wait for Ford's deal to be done to do anything but sign on the dotted line if it's more than you've got at that moment under the cap.
Again, I think that'll be sooner than later as long as he clear's a team's physical. Hell, if you have questions, a team with cap room can play him on the tag themselves and see if he's worth re-signing next year.

Cutting Houston almost pays for Ford as long as you don't consider the $7
million in dead cap money. It's literally cheaper to pay Houston and tag-and-trade Ford-and if you count NEXT YEAR's cap, it's a LOT cheaper. Which Veach has to take into account.

Keeping Ford and cutting Houston costs $24 million on this year's cap.
Keeping Houston and trading Ford costs $21 million plus whatever pick you get from Ford.

And next year, you can cut Houston for $1.5 million against the cap. Next year, if you re-sign Ford it's going to be more like Houston's $21 million IF HE BALLS OUT. If he doesn't, it was all for naught.

I get what you're saying, I just think it's literally the better fiscal move. And I think the team is better with a well rounded player there.

[Chief Northman]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

that's fair, but-Ford's tag money comes off as soon as a trade gets done.
He's the most talented pure pass rusher available. he's going to be sought after. I think it more likely that teams are competing to nab him than ignoring and waiting.

You have some cap money early-until you get all your own guys done and draftees signed. They literally have enough money right at the start of FA to sign a Landon Collins; you just have other bills you need to pay so you can't unless there's cap relief elsewhere. You've got plenty of time before those bills are due. You've got $25 million or so right now; you just need a bunch of that before camp. you could sign a couple of guys and wait on some other things, like extending players.

You can shop, talk, and negotiate with players; you don't have to wait for Ford's deal to be done to do anything but sign on the dotted line if it's more than you've got at that moment under the cap.
Again, I think that'll be sooner than later as long as he clear's a team's physical. Hell, if you have questions, a team with cap room can play him on the tag themselves and see if he's worth re-signing next year.

Cutting Houston almost pays for Ford as long as you don't consider the $7
million in dead cap money. It's literally cheaper to pay Houston and tag-and-trade Ford-and if you count NEXT YEAR's cap, it's a LOT cheaper. Which Veach has to take into account.

Keeping Ford and cutting Houston costs $24 million on this year's cap.
Keeping Houston and trading Ford costs $21 million plus whatever pick you get from Ford.

And next year, you can cut Houston for $1.5 million against the cap. Next year, if you re-sign Ford it's going to be more like Houston's $21 million IF HE BALLS OUT. If he doesn't, it was all for naught.

I get what you're saying, I just think it's literally the better fiscal move. And I think the team is better with a well rounded player there.

Here's the other reason.

If the Chiefs are in 'win now" mode, can they afford to let their most dynamic pass rusher go? No draft pick is replacing Ford's production, neither is any free agent. Ford is a premiere SPEED rusher. Houston/Speaks won't get near the pressure as Ford/ANYBODY.

I get the sensibilities $-wise in your proposal as well as getting value out of Ford, but given the team's situation as a Superbowl favourite, I'm not sure you eliminate one of its defensive strengths for a bit of money and "potential".

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Here's the other reason.

If the Chiefs are in 'win now" mode, can they afford to let their most dynamic pass rusher go? No draft pick is replacing Ford's production, neither is any free agent. Ford is a premiere SPEED rusher. Houston/Speaks won't get near the pressure as Ford/ANYBODY.

I get the sensibilities $-wise in your proposal as well as getting value out of Ford, but given the team's situation as a Superbowl favourite, I'm not sure you eliminate one of its defensive strengths for a bit of money and "potential".

BUT I would argue that Houston's much, MUCH better as a run defender, while being just slightly less as a pass rusher. And really, on a per snap basis, you could argue that Houston is just as dynamic a pass rusher (compare sacks, pressures, and QB hits per snap).

Ford's a great speed pass rusher, but that's literally the only part of his game that is above average let alone 'elite'. Houston is a plus player in all areas other than perhaps pass coverage.

[Toad]

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Here's the trouble from my POV:

- As soon as Ford is tagged, his tag number ($15-16 million) automatically counts against the 2019 salary cap, signed or not.
- Houston's cap number is $21 million, and the Chiefs would incur a $7.1 million hit in dead money with his release, but free up $14 million in cap space - this $14 million almost accounts for Ford's 2019 salary/cap hit.
- I get the notion of getting a high pick for Ford if he can be traded, BUT:
i) The longer a trade takes to develop, the longer you are hampered with Ford's cap number counting against the salary cap - this is a problem as all teams want as much cap/money available at the start of free agency.
ii) Ford can wait quite a while to sign if he wants, hampering the Chiefs ability to acquire free agents, or if he does not desire a rumored/negotiated trade.
iii) You have to be sure you are getting fair value in a Ford trade: teams know that waiting a bit on trading for a tagged Ford can/will bring down the trade value. Teams will apply pressure on the cap-strapped Chiefs in any trade talks as they know his cap hit applies the moment he is tagged.

This is the greater reason why we are likely hearing of a Ford tag/retention, Houston release - the Chiefs need $$$$$$ at the start of free agency, and don't want to be left standing on the outside while players sign deals elsewhere. The Chiefs cap flexibility is a delicate balance given the circumstances of the big contracts (Ford/Houston/Berry).

You may be on to something with the timing thing.

From my understanding, teams can apply the tag between Feb 20 thru March 14. Free agency starts on or around March 14. If the team cannot secure a trade by then, they are hand tied for the prime time of FA.

It is a risk.

[BossChief]

That would leave us with:

Speaks/draft pick
Jones/Hamilton
Nnadi/Williams
Flowers/Kpass

Draft pick/DOD
Hitchens/draft pick
Draft pick/Ray?

Draft pick/Ward
Draft pick/Watts
Thomas/Lucas
McCourtey/Jackson
Fuller

Those draft picks would be

1 first in the 20s
The 29th pick
3 second rounders
1 5th
2 6ths
2 7ths

[YontsRBake]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That would leave us with:

Speaks/draft pick
Jones/Hamilton
Nnadi/Williams
Flowers/Kpass

Draft pick/DOD
Hitchens/draft pick
Draft pick/Ray?

Draft pick/Ward
Draft pick/Watts
Thomas/Lucas
McCourtey/Jackson
Fuller

Those draft picks would be

1 first in the 20s
The 29th pick
3 second rounders
1 5th
2 6ths
2 7ths

Flowers is projected for a 5 year $75 million contract (based on the example set by Danielle Hunter I believe) I don't think we can afford that.

One thing I don't see many people talking about that I think should be considered is what about leaving Chris Jones at the SDE spot? Then going to FA or the draft for a DT.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by YontsRBake

One thing I don't see many people talking about that I think should be considered is what about leaving Chris Jones at the SDE spot? Then going to FA or the draft for a DT.

No I think that would be a mistake. his ability to pressure from INSIDE is elite and second only to Aaron Donald. I don't think you want to mess with that.