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Old 09-03-2013, 11:58 PM  
pr_capone pr_capone is offline
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Alex Smith end of season stats (what if?)
3,500 yards - 25 TD - 10 INT - 80 QBR - 56% Completion - and all 16 games started w/no injury

Is that performance worth the two 2nd round picks KC paid?

Also... would those numbers merit a contract extension and he then gets to groom his eventual replacement?
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Old 09-04-2013, 10:55 AM   #61
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If we run the same offense that Reid ran with McNabb, 3,500 yards is pretty good. He only went over that like three times and he never got 4,000 yards. We aren't going to run the downfield offense that Vick ran with Jackson and Maclin. We are going to throw it to Charles like McNabb threw it to Westbrook. Alex's roles will be much more like McNabb's than Vick's.
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:00 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Red Gorilla View Post
If we run the same offense that Reid ran with McNabb, 3,500 yards is pretty good. He only went over that like three times and he never got 4,000 yards. We aren't going to run the downfield offense that Vick ran with Jackson and Maclin. We are going to throw it to Charles like McNabb threw it to Westbrook. Alex's roles will be much more like McNabb's than Vick's.
quite possible.
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:21 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by pr_capone View Post
3,500 yards - 25 TD - 10 INT - 80 QBR - 56% Completion - and all 16 games started w/no injury

Is that performance worth the two 2nd round picks KC paid?

Also... would those numbers merit a contract extension and he then gets to groom his eventual replacement?
56% completion for an "accurate" QB like Smith, let alone any QB, would be a disaster. For comparison, Matt Cassel completed 58% of his passes last year.

Smith needs to be in the low 60's for completion percentage, especially in a Reid offense. Based on what Vick and McNabb have done in Reid's system, you'd be looking at 3100 yards, 23 TD's, 11 INT's, 60% completion, and considering Vick and McNabb's injury history in Philly, plus Smith's own history, and Cassel's recent history behind this line, you're probably looking at 14 starts max for Smith.

To be worth what we paid, the bottom line will come down to did he help us win and get into the playoffs and play well in the playoffs. But if we are just basing it on stats, you'd be looking for something similar to Gannon's first year in Oakland, which is similar to the numbers above except Gannon had 700 more passing yards. Based on history and the fact that we don't have Tim Brown on this roster, I don't think hitting 3800 yards has any chance of happening...
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:44 AM   #64
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When you trade multiple high picks for a qb the expectation should be that you are building around that guy for championships (yes, multiple). If you are not building for championships, then the picks were wasted. Until Alex Smith becomes an integral part of championship teams, I will view that trade as a collossal failure.
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:50 AM   #65
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throwing for 3,500 yards doesn't mean anything anymore...it would put him 18th between Rivers and Fitzpatrick

but throwing for 3,500 yards with such a terrible completion percentage is 'almost' impossible...noticeable exceptions: Luck and Freeman (but both were over 4,000)

and i have no idea why we'd want smith tutoring anyone..."Hey, kid, when in doubt take a sack...and always look at the rush so that you can't make a play down field"
Yeah. Because Kaep takes so many sacks right? Stop with the non sense. Some times the best teachers, weren't good players.
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Originally Posted by el borracho View Post
When you trade multiple high picks for a qb the expectation should be that you are building around that guy for championships (yes, multiple). If you are not building for championships, then the picks were wasted. Until Alex Smith becomes an integral part of championship teams, I will view that trade as a collossal failure.
Do you think that the Texans feel they got a colossal failure in Matt Schaub?

That's the same price the Texans gave up to get him.

The picks compensation is so over blown. Half of this board, doesn't even know who was drafted at 34 this year.......
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:02 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Red Gorilla View Post
If we run the same offense that Reid ran with McNabb, 3,500 yards is pretty good. He only went over that like three times and he never got 4,000 yards. We aren't going to run the downfield offense that Vick ran with Jackson and Maclin. We are going to throw it to Charles like McNabb threw it to Westbrook. Alex's roles will be much more like McNabb's than Vick's.
McNabb missed a lot of games. If you project his production over full seasons for his last 6 years in Philly it looks like this:

2004: 4100 yards, 33 TD (actual, 15 starts: 3875, 31)
2005: 4450 yards, 28 TD (actual, 9 starts: 2507, 16)
2006: 4200 yards, 29 TD (actual, 10 starts: 2647, 18)
2007: 3800 yards, 21 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3324, 19)
2008: 3916 yards, 23 TD (full season)
2009: 4050 yards, 25 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3553, 22 TD)
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:07 PM   #67
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:23 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by keg in kc View Post
McNabb missed a lot of games. If you project his production over full seasons for his last 6 years in Philly it looks like this:

2004: 4100 yards, 33 TD (actual, 15 starts: 3875, 31)
2005: 4450 yards, 28 TD (actual, 9 starts: 2507, 16)
2006: 4200 yards, 29 TD (actual, 10 starts: 2647, 18)
2007: 3800 yards, 21 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3324, 19)
2008: 3916 yards, 23 TD (full season)
2009: 4050 yards, 25 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3553, 22 TD)
Just to add to this, another approach would be to look at total Philly QB production for those years (not just McNabb...):

2004 (McNabb, Detmer, Blake): 4200 yards, 32 TD
2005 (McNabb, McMahon, Detmer): 3900 yards, 21 TD
2006 (McNabb, Garcia, Feeley): 4300 yards, 31 TD
2007 (McNabb, Feeley): 4000 yards, 24 TD
2008 (McNabb, Kolb): 4050 yards, 23 TD
2009 (McNabb, Kolb, Vick (briefly)): 4350 yards, 27 TD
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:23 PM   #69
Red Gorilla Red Gorilla is offline
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McNabb missed a lot of games.
Good point. I would expect Smith to be like 2003-2004 McNabb. He started 31games in those two years and 3500+ yards for Smith is about right imo. He's not McNabb but, it will be a very similar offense to 2003-2004.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:24 PM   #70
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Just to add to this, another approach would be to look at total Philly QB production for those years (not just McNabb...):

2004 (McNabb, Detmer, Blake): 4200 yards, 32 TD
2005 (McNabb, McMahon, Detmer): 3900 yards, 21 TD
2006 (McNabb, Garcia, Feeley): 4300 yards, 31 TD
2007 (McNabb, Feeley): 4000 yards, 24 TD
2008 (McNabb, Kolb): 4050 yards, 23 TD
2009 (McNabb, Kolb, Vick (briefly)): 4350 yards, 27 TD
Yep, good post. Now check out the RBs receiving production for the earlier years (2004-2007) if you have time.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:28 PM   #71
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Yep, good post. Now check out the RBs receiving production
I think we're all well aware of that, and expect Charles (and I believe Cyrus Gray moreso than Davis at this point) to touch the ball about 11 billion times this year.

However....in 2009 DeSean Jackson had 1150 yards, Brent Celek was just shy of 1000 and Jeremy Maclin added another 750.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:35 PM   #72
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I think we're all well aware of that, and expect Charles (and I believe Cyrus Gray moreso than Davis at this point) to touch the ball about 11 billion times this year.

However....in 2009 DeSean Jackson had 1150 yards, Brent Celek was just shy of 1000 and Jeremy Maclin added another 750.
Yep, that is true but, what I am saying is that's not the same offense I am talking about. By that point they had two competent speed WRs and a very good slot WR.

Reid plays to the team's strengths.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:36 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Red Gorilla View Post
If we run the same offense that Reid ran with McNabb, 3,500 yards is pretty good. He only went over that like three times and he never got 4,000 yards. We aren't going to run the downfield offense that Vick ran with Jackson and Maclin. We are going to throw it to Charles like McNabb threw it to Westbrook. Alex's roles will be much more like McNabb's than Vick's.
Can you please tell me how the playcalling changed from those 2 QBs, with specifically detailing the amount of vertical concepts per play as well as designed throws to RBs(1st prog) and those that were checkdowns?


You really just don't know what you're talking about, do you? Do you think Andy Reid came up with an entire new offense; threw everything out the window that had worked previously? Really? Because that's hilarious to me.
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I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:37 PM   #74
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Yep, that is true but, what I am saying is that's not the same offense I am talking about. By that point they had two competent speed WRs and a very good slot WR.

Reid plays to the team's strengths.
Again, please tell me how the number of vertical concepts called per game changed when they drafted Jackson/Maclin as opposed to previous years.


Put a number on it.
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Quote:
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I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:40 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by keg in kc View Post
McNabb missed a lot of games. If you project his production over full seasons for his last 6 years in Philly it looks like this:

2004: 4100 yards, 33 TD (actual, 15 starts: 3875, 31)
2005: 4450 yards, 28 TD (actual, 9 starts: 2507, 16)
2006: 4200 yards, 29 TD (actual, 10 starts: 2647, 18)
2007: 3800 yards, 21 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3324, 19)
2008: 3916 yards, 23 TD (full season)
2009: 4050 yards, 25 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3553, 22 TD)
Quote:
Originally Posted by keg in kc View Post
Just to add to this, another approach would be to look at total Philly QB production for those years (not just McNabb...):

2004 (McNabb, Detmer, Blake): 4200 yards, 32 TD
2005 (McNabb, McMahon, Detmer): 3900 yards, 21 TD
2006 (McNabb, Garcia, Feeley): 4300 yards, 31 TD
2007 (McNabb, Feeley): 4000 yards, 24 TD
2008 (McNabb, Kolb): 4050 yards, 23 TD
2009 (McNabb, Kolb, Vick (briefly)): 4350 yards, 27 TD
Good post. Solid research.
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