The way I understand the playoff picture...

[Direckshun]

This Arizona game is a gravy game. It's not critical to our chances at a playoff spot, but it would really help.

Due to our losses the past two weeks, we need to get to ten wins, and we need to run up the conference win record. I've been noodling down about a dozen scenarios, and the Chiefs must beat Oakland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego to get to 8-4 in AFC play, which would make the Chiefs virtually tie-breaker proof against any AFC wild card team.

Those wins get us to 10-5, and we can honestly drop the Arizona game at that point. 11-5 gets us in, of course, but 10-6 with wins over the Dolphins and Steelers almost guarantees we're in.

The Browns are imploding, the Chargers are hitting a buzzsaw of games at the end of their season. I expect both of them to fade to 9-7 or worse (I have them both at 8-8), which puts them out of contention.

The Ravens, more than anybody, have been bolstered by slaughtering cupcakes in the NFCS. The Ravens are 7-5 with a game in Miami this week that will likely be their version of KC-Pittsburgh, and three winnable games to close out the season. That's probably a 10-6 record. A 10-6 Chiefs team has a very easy tie-breaker with them because our conference record will have trounced theirs.

The most obvious threats here are the Bengals, the Dolphins, and the Steelers. Beating the Steelers mean we have any tie-breaker you want over two of those teams. And I think the Bengals are waltzing to the AFCN title.

This is a bit jumbled, but there's virtually no world where we lose to Oakland, Pittsburgh, and/or San Diego and survive to the postseason. But we can lose against the Cards and still comfortably get there by winning all three.

[Beef Supreme]

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Manila-Chief

Mile High ... just curious ... you have SD beating Pats & S.F. yet losing to the Chiefs & Broncos. I know that AFCW teams usually win at home no matter the record (re: Oak/KC) ... but, if they beat the Pats logic would say the beat the Chiefs????

Which seems to indicate losing to Den is a homer pick???

I don't think that's the case. KC already beat SD in SD, so it's reasonable they'd beat SD in KC.

Denver is a better team than SD, and has also beaten them once this season. It's not really a homer pick to choose Denver to win.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Manila-Chief

Mile High ... just curious ... you have SD beating Pats & S.F. yet losing to the Chiefs & Broncos. I know that AFCW teams usually win at home no matter the record (re: Oak/KC) ... but, if they beat the Pats logic would say the beat the Chiefs????

Which seems to indicate losing to Den is a homer pick???

Nothing is absolute and I'm just guessing, as everyone else is... but, I don't think NE will play well on the road after a tough road loss this week. Call me crazy, but I think SD carries the momentum from the Baltimore win into this one and catches NE on the back end of a tough 2 game road trip.

I'm not as impressed with SF lately, think SD can snag that one.

Manning and the Broncos are 15-1 vs the AFCW since his arrival, the lone loss being to SD in Denver (of all places). I think Denver plays well and takes that one, and after a grueling stretch of tough games - I think SD falls flat at the end in KC.

[Crying Ramtard]

Originally Posted by ILChief

I think KC and Baltimore get the WC spots. Miami will choke one away against Minnesota or somebody. Buffalo, Cleveland, and SD have really tough schedules. Cincy takes the north.

Browns and Bills will make the playoffs

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I think Sunday night was a wake up call and the Cardinals game will be a classic "gut check" game.

Mark my words:

-The Chiefs will win out and make the playoffs.-

You are high. Oakland was the wake up call, and the Chiefs hit snooze. We're done.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Baconeater

You are high. Oakland was the wake up call, and the Chiefs hit snooze. We're done.

I think Andy was the biggest reason we lost last Sunday. Not the players.

[BossChief]

The biggest reason we lost was because the OL couldn't block their pass rush.

[Chiefs4TheWin]

So what's going on in here? Anyone have a hot tub?

[Otter]

Direckshun, here's a bag of dicks. Try the big blue one.

[Easy 6]

Chiefs didn't just lose, they totally rolled over in the biggest game of the year thus far, at home.

Its hard to see them going on some big run after these last two pimp slappings by conference opponents, they've been exposed again just like they were this time last year.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think Andy was the biggest reason we lost last Sunday. Not the players.

Yeah, that and the defense arm-tackling, the line getting slaughtered every down, and our QB who isn't willing to throw the ball.

Other than that, it was definitely all Andy.

This was a top to bottom bed-shitting. Players, coaches, GM, concession stand vendors, etc.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

What you didn't figure into the equation is the Browns.

The Browns are putting Johnny Manziel in the week so this pretty much assures the Browns of getting in to the 6th seed at least. Where will that leave us ?

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

What you didn't figure into the equation is the Browns.

The Browns are putting Johnny Manziel in the week so this pretty much assures the Browns of getting in to the 6th seed at least. Where will that leave us ?

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

This Arizona game is a gravy game. It's not critical to our chances at a playoff spot, but it would really help.

True, sort of. No game is hugely more important than than another, but the critical thing is to win 3 of 4.

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I've been noodling down about a dozen scenarios, and the Chiefs must beat Oakland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego to get to 8-4 in AFC play, which would make the Chiefs virtually tie-breaker proof against any AFC wild card team.

A whole dozen out of 2^64? Wow. I recommend looking at about the 5000 most likely scenarios and go from there. But you are basically correct that getting to 10-6 wiht the last loss coming against Arizona gets us to a 97% chance of making the playoffs.

Originally Posted by Direckshun

This is a bit jumbled, but there's virtually no world where we lose to Oakland, Pittsburgh, and/or San Diego and survive to the postseason. But we can lose against the Cards and still comfortably get there by winning all three.

Complete hogwash. If we get to 10 - 6 with a loss to the following teams the odds of us making the playoffs are:

Pittsburgh: 82%
Oakland: 95%
San Diego: 63%

[Buck]

Direckshun, give it up man. You're a shitty clairvoyant.