This is how the NFL rigs games

[rabblerouser]

The refs really showed out for the Bungles today.

**** the NFL.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Zhawk

Don’t they do “in house” evaluations?

They do. I believe SI did a longform piece a while back following a Crew Chief for a week and documenting the process.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

As someone who bets semi-regularly, it's not odd at all for lines to change on gameday for a multitude of reasons.

Usually it's because the book is trying to level things out to limit potential losses, which is Occams Razor in this case.

I'd like to first establish that the line changed within hours of the announcement of the replacement crew. That should be the baseline for this discussion.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

They do. I believe SI did a longform piece a while back following a Crew Chief for a week and documenting the process.

Found it. Three part series.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2013/12/04/pe...-with-nfl-refs

https://www.si.com/nfl/2013/12/05/pe...-refs-part-two

https://www.si.com/nfl/2013/12/06/pe...rew-part-three

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

Steered, manipulated, whatever.

The refs flagged the Bengals back into the game, and they flagged us to get our defense on the field.

It's easy.

They wear those earpieces in their ears and have the 'eye in the sky', but it's goddamn amazing how none of that mattered on Sunday, isn't it?

Remember when, who was it, the Cleveland coach who shoved a Chiefs player and they called in from New York? Stopped the ****ing game to get it right?

How they gonna let the Bengals false start twice and once let it be Encroachment on us and just let the other go entirely?

Come on, maaaaaaan...

I'm not even arguing against you, I'm just trying to figure out how deep this goes in your opinion, since you're clearly ignoring that part of the conversation.

I take it you don't agree with BlackOp's perspective then, and that games aren't performed and the NFL doesn't have control over entire weeks of the season when there are a lot of upsets?

You're saying this is just between the NFL front offices and the refs?

You've said "everyone knows", so of course that includes coaches and players knowing and being okay with it.... even someone like Kaepernick, who completely got screwed by the NFL, hasn't (to my knowledge) come out and put it out in the open.

So once again... your opinion is this is strictly an NFL front office and refs thing, where the NFL steers games based on specific instructions to ref crews (whether it's as real time as "the Chiefs can't score before halftime or slightly less direct like "this game needs to stay close"). No player or coach involvement.

[KCUnited]

Lines during Covid have been particularly useless. I can't imagine laying a bet any time before the morning of (its likely better now that we're a few weeks into the new protocols).

I bet KC via Draft Kings. Seemed pretty consistent at -5 most of the week, then fell to -3.5 and settled at -4.5 when I wagered on Sunday morning.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by lcarus

The Chiefs were favored by 5.5 points over the Bengals right? Once the Chiefs got ahead by 14 in the first half and were just easily carving them up, I knew the flags were gonna start flying. And right on cue, they came. Big return? Nah, holding. Big run on 3rd and 2? Nah, holding. Big stop on 3rd down? Nah, pass interference. False start on the Bengals on a big play late in the game? Nah, encroachment on the defense.

The 18 penalties they got on their final "game winning drive" was just the icing on the cake. This cake:

Yep, but then you have those that want us to believe as they want to believe, it is just incompetence. They remind me of a kid screaming when they find out there is no easter bunny or Santa Claus.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I'm sure the news of Orlando Brown's calf injury 30 minutes before the game has zero impact on the lines...

[Dartgod]

Ok, I can't post the link right now because I am on my work computer, but I think Rabblerouser is way off on this line changing stuff. I'd love to see proof if I am wrong. This is all via Oddshark.com. You can go there if you want more detail. I left out dates where the line did not change.

Bovada
Opening line 12/26: Chiefs -4.5
12/28: Chiefs -5
12/30: Chiefs -5
12/31: Chiefs -4.5
1/1: Chiefs -4
1/2: Chiefs -4

BetNow
Opening line 12/26: Chiefs -4.5
12/26: Chiefs -5
12/27: Chiefs -5.5
12/28: Chiefs -5
12/31: Chiefs -4.5
12/31: Chiefs -4
1/1: Chiefs -3.5
1/2: Chiefs -3.5

BetOnline
Opening line 12/26: Chiefs -4.5
12/27: Chiefs -5
12/28: Chiefs -5.5
12/30: Chiefs -5
12/31: Chiefs -4.5
1/1: Chiefs -3.5
1/2: Chiefs -3.5

Clearly, there were no significant jumps in the line, especially on the day of the game. I'd love to know where Rabble is getting his info.

/condescendingprickdisabled

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

I'd like to first establish that the line changed within hours of the announcement of the replacement crew. That should be the baseline for this discussion.

https://www.newspressnow.com/sports/...0f47f2f92.html

Okay. This provides some context.

The NFL tests refs for covid on Monday. On Tuesday, it was announced that this Torbert guy would not be officiating the game, but on Sunday, out of the blue, he ended up working it anyway. I would think it's fairly likely he tested positive for covid but then was asymptomatic during the week and also got a negative test so was able to work it.

I would imagine the other substitutions are covid-related as well.

So, at a minimum, if you can provide evidence that the line moved from Monday to Tuesday to Wednesday, that would at least provide some evidence that perhaps someone somewhere believed this to be some nefarious rigging activity and bet on Cincy as a result.

But then the guy who was subbed out worked the game anyway!? Maybe he had a change of heart and became more rig-friendly during the week?

[Fish]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

Thank you.

Logic.



[...]

... no, you are absolutely not using logic here. This conspiracy nonsense is quite the opposite of that.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

https://www.newspressnow.com/sports/...0f47f2f92.html

Okay. This provides some context.

The NFL tests refs for covid on Monday. On Tuesday, it was announced that this Torbert guy would not be officiating the game, but on Sunday, out of the blue, he ended up working it anyway. I would think it's fairly likely he tested positive for covid but then was asymptomatic during the week and also got a negative test so was able to work it.

I would imagine the other substitutions are covid-related as well.

So, at a minimum, if you can provide evidence that the line moved from Monday to Tuesday to Wednesday, that would at least provide some evidence that perhaps someone somewhere believed this to be some nefarious rigging activity and bet on Cincy as a result.

But then the guy who was subbed out worked the game anyway!? Maybe he had a change of heart and became more rig-friendly during the week?

In all of my examples the line went up Tuesday and Wednesday and then started coming back down later in the week.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

I'm not even arguing against you, I'm just trying to figure out how deep this goes in your opinion, since you're clearly ignoring that part of the conversation.

I take it you don't agree with BlackOp's perspective then, and that games aren't performed and the NFL doesn't have control over entire weeks of the season when there are a lot of upsets?

You're saying this is just between the NFL front offices and the refs?

You've said "everyone knows", so of course that includes coaches and players knowing and being okay with it.... even someone like Kaepernick, who completely got screwed by the NFL, hasn't (to my knowledge) come out and put it out in the open.

So once again... your opinion is this is strictly an NFL front office and refs thing, where the NFL steers games based on specific instructions to ref crews (whether it's as real time as "the Chiefs can't score before halftime or slightly less direct like "this game needs to stay close"). No player or coach involvement.

Absolutely I agree with BlackOp's perspective. A lot of us do. And I'm not ignoring anything.

I don't know how deep it goes.

In this year’s installment of the*America’s Game*series by NFL Films, former Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis said that he doesn’t buy that the power went out accidentally in a game that the Ravens were winning handily before darkness fell.

“I’m not gonna*accuse nobody of nothing*— because I don’t know facts. But you’re a zillion-dollar company, and your lights go out? No. No way,” Lewis said, via Nate Davis of*USA Today.*“Now listen, if you grew up like I grew up — and you grew up in a household like I grew up — then sometimes your lights might go out, because times get hard. I understand that. But you cannot tell me somebody wasn’t sitting there and when they say, ‘The Ravens [are] about to blow them out. Man, we better do something.’ … That’s a huge shift in any game, in all seriousness. And as you see how huge it was because it let them right back in the game.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profoot...-accident/amp/

In an interview with the ESPN’s Lisa Salters, fellow Ravens linebacker*Terrell Suggs echoed his teammates’ comments, and openly suggested that Goodell may have ordered the blackout for gambling-related reasons. “I was like Vegas, parlor tricks, you know what I mean?” Suggs told the newspaper. “I was like ahh, Roger Goodell, he never stops, he always has something up his sleeve. He just couldn’t let us have this one in a landside huh?”

https://www.ibtimes.com/super-bowl-f...-proof-1549788

One of the heroes of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ dominant Super Bowl win back in 2003 has a strong opinion about who decides the winner of the Lombardi Trophy every year.

Appearing on Tampa’s WDAE on Wednesday, former Bucs defensive back Dwight Smith told listeners that “Vegas decides who will win the Super Bowl,” based on which team will make them the most money. "Games aren't decided on the field."

Smith had a pair of pick-sixes in Tampa Bay’s 48-21 win over the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII.

https://bucswire.usatoday.com/2021/0...-dwight-smith/

When the Jets, 18 1/2-point underdogs, beat the Baltimore Colts, 16-7, in 1969 in the third Super Bowl, it was considered the biggest upset in the history of professional football. Now, more than 14 years later, Bubba Smith, a former Baltimore defensive lineman, is suggesting that the game may have been fixed to give the American Football League credibility in its merger with the National Football League.

Smith, who voiced his suspicions in a new autobiography, ''Kill, Bubba, Kill,'' and in an interview in the November issue of Playboy magazine, repeated them last night in a television interview with Marv Albert. He said he was told by ''a bookmaker in New York and members of the N.F.L. Players Association,'' none of whom were named, that the game had been fixed. He initially rejected the idea, he said, but changed his mind after reflecting on the game. ''I knew something was wrong, you know, through the whole day, because if you look back at the films, we were inside the 20 five times in the first half and came away with no points.''*

https://www.nytimes.com/1983/09/29/s...ix-hinted.html

Super Bowl III is interesting, because of the whole merger. And Don Shula (with Earl Morrall) going to the hapless Dolphins, who within 2 years had the NFL's only perfect season. In paradise.

And then Super Bowl IV...

Donald Dawson ...the cash...Len Dawson getting arrested and basically telling the FBI that it had nothing to do with Vegas and everything to do with establishing the legitimacy of the NFL...

The Kansas City Shuffle.

How deep DOES it go??

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

Absolutely I agree with BlackOp's perspective. A lot of us do. And I'm not ignoring anything.

I don't know how deep it goes.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/profoot...-accident/amp/



https://www.ibtimes.com/super-bowl-f...-proof-1549788



https://bucswire.usatoday.com/2021/0...-dwight-smith/



https://www.nytimes.com/1983/09/29/s...ix-hinted.html

Super Bowl III is interesting, because of the whole merger. And Don Shula (with Earl Morrall) going to the hapless Dolphins, who within 2 years had the NFL's only perfect season. In paradise.

And then Super Bowl IV...

Donald Dawson ...the cash...Len Dawson getting arrested and basically telling the FBI that it had nothing to do with Vegas and everything to do with establishing the legitimacy of the NFL...

The Kansas City Shuffle.

How deep DOES it go??

All you are doing is providing examples of players and others who think like you do. None of this is proof.

What about your assertion that the line moved right before the game when the replacement ref crew was announced? Can you refute the stuff I posted?

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by Fish

... no, you are absolutely not using logic here. This conspiracy nonsense is quite the opposite of that.

The only thing that doesn't pass the logic test is "boy them refs sure are bad at their jobs, herp-a-derp! They need to be gettin' them there eyes checked! Need new glasses ref?? DERP!"

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by Fish

... no, you are absolutely not using logic here. This conspiracy nonsense is quite the opposite of that.

The only thing that doesn't pass the logic test is "boy them refs sure are bad at their jobs, herp-a-derp! They need to be gettin' them there eyes checked! Need new glasses ref?? DERP!"

And, for the record, I was responding to someone else's comment.

I said that they were being logical. I agreed with that person's statement.