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03-23-2013, 12:18 PM | #1 | |
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It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.
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03-23-2013, 12:55 PM | #2 | |||
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03-23-2013, 01:09 PM | #3 | |
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Brilliant!!
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03-23-2013, 02:23 PM | #4 | |
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03-23-2013, 09:26 AM | #5 |
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KC drafts Geno, trades Chubby Chase for a fourth rounder, KC drafts second coming of Jared Allen with extra fourth round pick. KC wins multiple Superbowls with Geno and "Jared".
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03-23-2013, 09:46 AM | #6 |
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And personally I don't care if they take Geno or not. Take the whomever you think is the best QB in this class. If he crashes and burns take another one in a high round until you do get a good one.
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03-23-2013, 09:49 AM | #7 |
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I don't consider expectations for Geno Smith to be overinflated, but I do think folks are making him seem like he's a no risk player. He isn't. There are parts of his game that are underdeveloped and it is certainly questionable as to whether Geno Smith can handle pressure of the NFL better than pressure of college ball. Can he mature?
I have always maintained he could have good success if paired with a sympathetic offensive minded coach like Gruden or Jim Harbaugh. But I don't consider Andy Reid to coach like Gruden does, he demands his QB play the game his way and the WCO is a complex system for any young man to command. I still feel this draft is awash from 1 to 15 and Geno Smith isn't really a top fifteen player in a normal draft, but I would grab him because this team needs to start grabbing young QB talent and he does have elite ability, not necessarily saying he is elite overall. I like his throwing motion a lot. I like the trajectory he has, very high release and the ball points down when he makes short passes, which is great for WCO style and guarding the ball from INT during tips. It also makes it harder to make a play, defensively. He's got an elite arm, decent accuracy, but I have read where he loses focus and accuracy. We saw this during a few plays when he was up against K State and Baylor. I'm not sure how I feel about his nerve, though it seems he does stand in during blitz and pass rushing that gets in on him. Those are the areas of concern for me.
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03-23-2013, 10:27 AM | #8 |
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03-23-2013, 10:03 AM | #9 |
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This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.
If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.
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03-23-2013, 10:10 AM | #10 |
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They have to be idiots, then. Actual, confirmed idiots. Like, "makes a strong argument for eugenics" type idiots.
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03-23-2013, 10:34 AM | #11 | |
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We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB. This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion. |
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03-23-2013, 11:14 AM | #12 | |
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It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ. I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.
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03-23-2013, 02:11 PM | #13 | |
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I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB." Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected? Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win? Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"? Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team? How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB? I don't know. |
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03-23-2013, 02:17 PM | #14 | |
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03-23-2013, 10:28 AM | #15 |
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So Brad Johnson is basicly the "mean" of 1st round QBs. So if Brad Johnsons skill set is the average the real question would be where does Genos skill set fall in the bell curve. I do think Brad Johnson is a very average QB. He was merely in the right place at the right time to get his SB ring. Awesome D along with Gruden vs Raiders/Gannon.
Time will tell us all where Geno belongs and whether taking him or passing was the correct decision. The biggest thing for the fans IMO is: If not now, when? This draft has the feel of '08 when it was Matt Ryan or Jake Long. No I don't really want "Matt Ryan" as my QB. He is not a franchise QB IMO. He cannot put a team on his back and win. So if Reid and Dorsey view Geno as "Matt Ryan" I hope we do pass on him because we would be stuck with a good QB that can't win you a SB.
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