Harrison Butker is the second-most accurate field goal kicker in NFL history.

[TLO]

This is a factual statement.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Yeah, it could be that.

Or it could be that the Chiefs are more concerned about the long term health (remember Denver?) of our half billion dollar franchise QB, literally the ONLY reason we will be in position to compete for a Super Bowl every single year, and they wanna do everything possible to minimize high contact situations for him unless it’s absolutely necessary.

But you’re probably right. It’s probably more about stroking Butker’s ego a little.

We’ll have to watch and see how many times the Chiefs opt to go for 2 this year, not because they need to, mind you, but because they’ve lost confidence in Butker. We’ll check the results at the end of the year and see who was right.

Yes, I'm sure injury risk also plays a part in why we don't go for it more. Is that something that's being disputed?

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by -King-

Yeah we might not having this conversation if he missed 2 less XPs. But he did. And I'd guess Reid isn't trying to rock the boat and trying to get Butkers confidence back up cause once you start attempting more 2 point conversions, you can't put that toothpaste back in the tube. But I bet if it continues into this year we do start attempting more 2 point conversions.

What kind of gutless take is this?

No. Reid is never going to look at Butker and say to himself, "well, he's only making 44 XPs out of every 50, so we have to start going for 2 more." No HC in their right mind would consider that. 44 points are 44 points, and at no risk to any starting offensive players. Simple.

And right now, last season's 6 misses (and wasn't there a botched hold and a blocked attempt or something last season?) were nothing more exciting than a statistical aberration, period. There's nothing to suggest that Butker is going to miss another 6 XPs this year, or any other year going forward. In fact, the numbers suggest that he'll miss 3 on average for the rest of his career. Any HC would take those 44 points and laugh all the way home.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by SupDock

The point is

Butker has gained 186 points out of 199 attempts.

If the chiefs decided to go for a two point conversion every time and completed at the league average of 49 percent, 0.46 x 199 x 2 points for every completed attempts that is 183 points. If we complete by a little higher than league average due to the Mahomes factor, then we come out ahead compared to the 186 points Butker earned.

I’m not necessarily advocating for this, just explaining the perspective.

Yeah, I quit trying to explain logic to Megatron long ago.

I didn't attempt to explain the math. He needs to pony up for a a semester of Quantitative Reasoning like the rest of us...

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

Yeah, I quit trying to explain logic to Megatron long ago.

I didn't attempt to explain the math. He needs to pony up for a a semester of Quantitative Reasoning like the rest of us...

math? here's a point: we have almost no evidence that the chiefs would convert 66 out of 100 2-pointers. We have 8 or 9 attempts over the last 4 years (or whatever the actual total is), and that's it. In the world of 'math' that's really close to the same thing as nothing.

At least with Butker we have 199 attempts, which isn't definitive either, statistically speaking, but it's a hell of a lot more significant than 8 or 9.

So while we'd like to think that KC could convert more 2-pointers than the league average, we literally have no actual facts to support that. "mathematically" the Chiefs conversion rate is insignificant at this time.

in other words, it's nothing more than a wild-ass guess.

[SupDock]

I think a bigger issue is the reliability of points. Across a season you may score more points, but it will be more random in the times it is helpful. You could go through a game where you miss all 4 two point conversions and put yourself in a difficult spot.
This is why head coaches tend to do it when the extra point will be more likely to be helpful.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

math? here's a point: we have almost no evidence that the chiefs would convert 66 out of 100 2-pointers. We have 8 or 9 attempts over the last 4 years (or whatever the actual total is), and that's it. In the world of 'math' that's really close to the same thing as nothing.

At least with Butker we have 199 attempts, which isn't definitive either, statistically speaking, but it's a hell of a lot more significant than 8 or 9.

So while we'd like to think that KC could convert more 2-pointers than the league average, we literally have no actual facts to support that. "mathematically" the Chiefs conversion rate is insignificant at this time.

in other words, it's nothing more than a wild-ass guess.

Which is why we even used the league average conversion rate and not Mahomes own conversion rate.

You're really in here trying to convince people that Mahomes (who as of right now has converted 5/7 2PT) wouldnt be able to get 2 yards more than 50% of the time if it came to it. C'mon man.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

math? here's a point: we have almost no evidence that the chiefs would convert 66 out of 100 2-pointers. We have 8 or 9 attempts over the last 4 years (or whatever the actual total is), and that's it. In the world of 'math' that's really close to the same thing as nothing.

At least with Butker we have 199 attempts, which isn't definitive either, statistically speaking, but it's a hell of a lot more significant than 8 or 9.

So while we'd like to think that KC could convert more 2-pointers than the league average, we literally have no actual facts to support that. "mathematically" the Chiefs conversion rate is insignificant at this time.

in other words, it's nothing more than a wild-ass guess.

I have little doubt that if we went for two every time, we would end up scoring more points across a season. If we converted at the league average we would be very close to coming out even.

I’m not convinced that this would win us more games, though.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

math? here's a point: we have almost no evidence that the chiefs would convert 66 out of 100 2-pointers. We have 8 or 9 attempts over the last 4 years (or whatever the actual total is), and that's it. In the world of 'math' that's really close to the same thing as nothing.

That's why you posted this :

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Over the last 4 years the Chiefs success rate on 2-point conversions is 66%.

Right?

Originally Posted by Megatron96

At least with Butker we have 199 attempts, which isn't definitive either, statistically speaking, but it's a hell of a lot more significant than 8 or 9.

So while we'd like to think that KC could convert more 2-pointers than the league average, we literally have no actual facts to support that. "mathematically" the Chiefs conversion rate is insignificant at this time.

in other words, it's nothing more than a wild-ass guess.

At the present, you yourself have posted that the Chiefs' have completed 66% of their 2pt attempts over the past 4 years, which is significantly higher than the league average.

Do we have any reason to think that Reid, Mahomes, & Co would not actually IMPROVE on that percentage if they were focused on making the 2 point conversion a more integral part of their point scoring structure?

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by -King-

Which is why we even used the league average conversion rate and not Mahomes own conversion rate.

You're really in here trying to convince people that Mahomes (who as of right now has converted 5/7 2PT) wouldnt be able to get 2 yards more than 50% of the time if it came to it. C'mon man.

Exactly
If you convert at least 50 percent of the time, you would come out ahead in points at the end of the season, if you assume your kicker misses at least one XP

[-King-]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I think a bigger issue is the reliability of points. Across a season you may score more points, but it will be more random in the times it is helpful. You could go through a game where you miss all 4 two point conversions and put yourself in a difficult spot.
This is why head coaches tend to do it when the extra point will be more likely to be helpful.

I agree. That's why I do think this is something we should do only if Butker is struggling again. If he's good, then yeah, no reason to chase points.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I have little doubt that if we went for two every time, we would end up scoring more points across a season. If we converted at the league average we would be very close to coming out even.

I’m not convinced that this would win us more games, though.

Exactly. The math supports going for 2 every time. But the things math can't account for...chemistry...context...statistics can't calculate what "the feel of a game" is like, and that's why coaches have that sheet that tells them "the best situations to go for 2 in", because coaches are people and get caught up in the moment, right?

[SuperBowl4]

[BigRedChief]

I'm positive that the math is there to go for two every time with Mahomes. But, thats not the coaching dogma.

Usually a kicker missing extra points is also missing field goals.

This is a unique situation. Calls for a unique solution.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'm positive that the math is there to go for two every time with Mahomes.

It is.

There is precedence, iirc in like 2000 or 2001, the Rams placekicker (Tony Zendejas? Maybe?) got hurt, like a groin pull or something. Like a couple weeks with a bye week giving them an extra week to heal?

Instead of Tiny Nacho Pocket Jesus-ing him and cutting him, or IRing him and bringing in someone for the couple of weeks he was out, or even (God forbid) cutting someone to sign a PK...Martz just went without a placekicker. And they KILLED people. Just had the punter kickoff, no punts, went for 2 every time. Slaughtered people.

EDIT : Jeff Wilkins was the kicker.

Wilkins kicked the extra point after Horne's score, squibbed a kickoff to end the run on kick-return TDs, then had to leave the game. The Rams had no backup place-kicker, so they went without one the rest of the way.

Rams coach Mike Martz asked for volunteers to kick off, and backup wide receiver Chris Thomas did a decent job, squibbing most of his kicks to around the Atlanta 20.

"That's my fault," Martz said of the absence of a backup. "How stupid am I? Shoot, that's ridiculous."

St. Louis actually took advantage by converting four of five two-point tries the rest of the way. Without the field-goal option, the Rams twice converted fourth-down plays in Atlanta territory and eventually scored touchdowns in a 45-29 victory.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...276-story.html

[FAX]

Have you guys considered the possibility that Harrison Butker is the offspring of a High Priestess who mated with a 5th Degree Magus in the Church of Satan? Conceived beneath the Sigil of Baphomet during a blood ritual held in the Black House Grotto? Then suckled by a dog as an infant?

And Alfred E. Neimann is his twin brother?

Have you considered that?

FAX