#3 overall pick... a 20 year history - Page 6

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 05:27 PM

08 Matt Ryan
07 Joe Thomas
06 Vince Young
05 Braylon Edwards
04 Larry Fitzgerald
03 Andre Johnson
02 Joey Harrington
01 Gerard Warren
00 Chris Samuels
99 Akili Smith
98 Andre Wadsworth
97 Shawn Springs
96 Simeon Rice
95 Steve McNair
94 Heath Shuler
93 Garrison Hearst
92 Sean Gilbert
91 Bruce Pickens
90 Cortez Kennedy
89 Barry Sanders

Draw your own conclusions. As for myself, if this list is a good indicator, I would go DT, DE, OT or WR... unfortunately we don't have a need that pressing at OT and the DE, DT WR prospects are iffy that high...

I am not in the anti-QB at all cost crowd.. I just really am not sold on THESE two QBs... esp. Stafford...

ChiefsCountry · 02-09-2009, 01:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

Leaf - spread
Couch - spread/Mike Leach
Smith - spread
Grossman - Spurrier's Fun N Gun
Ware - Run N Shoot
Young - Spread
Vick - Option

RustShack · 02-09-2009, 02:36 AM

Seems like a good pick for a WR

Don't show Haley or Piolis this list!

**AustinChief** · 02-09-2009, 03:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I don't know why you're so hung about about the "junior" status.

Stafford has started more collegiate games in the best defensive conference in the country than a ton of seniors.

Thus, from here on out we'll call him a "senior" based on his NFL development. Feel better? Same thing with Sanchez. Dude is really a "senior."

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain (pretend you're a devoted WPI subscriber).

Stafford has started alot of game.. just not impressed.. Sanchez I AM impressed with but... 16 games? Sorry, but the STATS are on my side... I am perfectly willing to be wrong... but so far.. no one has made a halfway decent argument as to WHY I am....

**AustinChief** · 02-09-2009, 03:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Leaf - spread
Couch - spread/Mike Leach
Smith - spread
Grossman - Spurrier's Fun N Gun
Ware - Run N Shoot
Young - Spread
Vick - Option

and your point is?

ok, half of my not even close to complete list were "gimmick" college players... I can add another 4 or 5 that weren't.... the argument is... what JUNIORS have succeeded in the NFL... maybe I am wrong and it is now TIME for JUNIORS to succeed... but HISTORY shows otherwise so far...

ANYONE have a valid statistical argument to contradict me?

Hog's Gone Fishin · 02-09-2009, 04:44 AM

What suprizes me is that there have been no kickers or punters drafted #3

Mecca · 02-09-2009, 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

and your point is?

ok, half of my not even close to complete list were "gimmick" college players... I can add another 4 or 5 that weren't.... the argument is... what JUNIORS have succeeded in the NFL... maybe I am wrong and it is now TIME for JUNIORS to succeed... but HISTORY shows otherwise so far...

ANYONE have a valid statistical argument to contradict me?

Well Ben Roethlisberger was an underclassman...

I can throw up alot of arguments about why it's felt to be important. Most guys who declared early were big stat, system guys who wanted to get paid..Akili Smith comes to mind a guy who failed as a baseball player then returned to college to play football had his 1 good season and bolted.

Most of the time people don't like to take underclassmen because they haven't been well coached and they are unrefined so they'll need more work. The fact is with a guy like Sanchez he's been well coached he isn't going to learn anything else in college...

There are a huge list of seniors that have failed aswell, hell when you get out of the 1st round you're talking about basically a 5% chance of finding a franchise QB yet people always seem to want to do that.

It's about finding a guy who has the natural physical talent, the makeup and intangibles to lead your team and your franchise a guy with the desire to live and breathe nothing but the game so much so watching film is something he wants and loves to do not something he considers work.

I think Sanchez has the makeup to be a successful QB and he has supreme physical talent, and he's been very well coached in a pro style offense he properly drops, takes snaps and sets up and throws properly.

He's had responsibility for plays at SC you don't see him looking to the sideline for audibles.

I think the experience thing would mean something if you could show me something he doesn't do well because he needs more experience but that isn't the case with this guy.

I'm going to borrow a post I saw on another forum because it sums up the underclassmen QB thing pretty well...

Quote:

Simple minded people don't understand rules like 'junior QB's never pan out' are nonsense. Just because junior QB's in the past have had a poor track record does not mean some cosmic force will prevent future one's from having good careers. A BS rule about junior QB's mean as much as the old rule "rookie QB's never play well".

**doomy3** · 02-09-2009, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Who, in your "infinite wisdom" is an AVERAGE NFL QB?

Don't EVEN like this shit is rocket-science and can be explained by statistics alone.

Are you a Thigpen supporter?

Jake Delhomme
Jeff Garcia
Marc Bulger
Matt Hasselbeck
David Garrard
Kerry Collins
Steve DeBerg
Dave Kreig
etc...

**Manila-Chief** · 02-09-2009, 10:16 AM

Austin, I, too, am not sure what your hang up is over junior QB’s? It’s scouting and not stats that determine if a player is worth a draft pick. It seems to it’s a matter of whether a QB has the talent, skills, intellect, attitude, etc. to be a great NFL QB or not? If he does, he can gain the experience in the NFL, if … (last year that would have been a giant IF for us) he received the coaching/opportunity by the team. You can teach experience but you can’t teach the intangibles.

You say Sanchez started 16 games. I just looked up Tom Brady’s info on Wikipedia and it says he won 20 of 25. That’s 9 more games started but not a whole heck of a lot. Both, had to sit behind really good QB’s for years. (With Tom’s credentials, I wonder how in the world he could have been overlooked … I mean % of wins, championships, intellect, etc.??? Guess Pioli/N.E. recognized his greatness when Carl really didn’t know talent???, but that’s a side issue.)

I noticed Brady graduated cum laude. Intelligence is a huge factor for a QB. Anybody know Sanchez/Stafford’s IQ?

DeezNutz ... I agree, with you, that Sanchez is not a junior. He may be in football eligibility but not in school classification. Stafford has started more games than most drafted seniors. Both are more mature than a college freshman starting his first game, so it shouldn’t be an issue. Scouting is the issue. And, I humbly yield to Scott/Todd to make the determinations for all of our picks.

**BigRedChief** · 02-09-2009, 10:45 AM

So what is everyones theory that Haley will want a "Fitzgerald type" WR and take Crabtree at #3?

**DeezNutz** · 02-09-2009, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

So what is everyones theory that Haley will want a "Fitzgerald type" WR and take Crabtree at #3?

The dominant reply to this will be that Crabtree is not near the prospect that Fitz was and certainly not worth the #3 overall pick.

Additionally, it sure doesn't help that Crabtree is refusing to run the 40.

Molitoth · 02-09-2009, 11:27 AM

70% of statistics are over-rated.

**DaneMcCloud** · 02-09-2009, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doomy3

Jake Delhomme
Jeff Garcia
Marc Bulger
Matt Hasselbeck
David Garrard
Kerry Collins
Steve DeBerg
Dave Kreig
etc...

Delhomme, Collins and Hasselbeck are average?

I'm sorry but this discussion is over. You clearly don't understand the difference between a bust (someone who NEVER had a career), an average QB, an above average QB and guys who have led their respective teams to the Super Bowl.

JFC.

**doomy3** · 02-09-2009, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Delhomme, Collins and Hasselbeck are average?

I'm sorry but this discussion is over. You clearly don't understand the difference between a bust (someone who NEVER had a career), an average QB, an above average QB and guys who have led their respective teams to the Super Bowl.

JFC.

Taking your team to the Super Bowl isn't the end all be all to a QB being great. Trent Dilfer was an average QB too, and he won a Super Bowl.

You obviously have much lower expectations than I do for someone who we will draft at number 3. At that slot we need a game changer, and none of those players I listed are that.

Just because someone is a starter on a team other than the Chiefs, that doesn't mean that they are above average. All of those guys I listed are average NFL starting QBs in my opinion. Much more so than Joey Harrington, that's for sure.

How many of the guys off that list would you be happy with if we could draft that player at #3?

**OnTheWarpath15** · 02-09-2009, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

Well Ben Roethlisberger was an underclassman...

I can throw up alot of arguments about why it's felt to be important. Most guys who declared early were big stat, system guys who wanted to get paid..Akili Smith comes to mind a guy who failed as a baseball player then returned to college to play football had his 1 good season and bolted.

Most of the time people don't like to take underclassmen because they haven't been well coached and they are unrefined so they'll need more work. The fact is with a guy like Sanchez he's been well coached he isn't going to learn anything else in college...

There are a huge list of seniors that have failed aswell, hell when you get out of the 1st round you're talking about basically a 5% chance of finding a franchise QB yet people always seem to want to do that.

It's about finding a guy who has the natural physical talent, the makeup and intangibles to lead your team and your franchise a guy with the desire to live and breathe nothing but the game so much so watching film is something he wants and loves to do not something he considers work.

I think Sanchez has the makeup to be a successful QB and he has supreme physical talent, and he's been very well coached in a pro style offense he properly drops, takes snaps and sets up and throws properly.

He's had responsibility for plays at SC you don't see him looking to the sideline for audibles.

I think the experience thing would mean something if you could show me something he doesn't do well because he needs more experience but that isn't the case with this guy.

I'm going to borrow a post I saw on another forum because it sums up the underclassmen QB thing pretty well...

Quote:

Simple minded people don't understand rules like 'junior QB's never pan out' are nonsense. Just because junior QB's in the past have had a poor track record does not mean some cosmic force will prevent future one's from having good careers. A BS rule about junior QB's mean as much as the old rule "rookie QB's never play well".

Spot on, and I'm making some room in my sig for that quote as we speak.

**doomy3** · 02-09-2009, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Delhomme, Collins and Hasselbeck are average?

I'm sorry but this discussion is over. You clearly don't understand the difference between a bust (someone who NEVER had a career), an average QB, an above average QB and guys who have led their respective teams to the Super Bowl.

JFC.

OK, you got me thinking about this and if maybe I was being too hard on some of these QBs. So, I listed each starting QB from last year and where I would rank them roughly. Where do you disagree that Delhomme, Collins or Hasselbeck should move up this list? And where would Harrington fit in here. By definition, average would be anything in the middle group, numbers 10 or 11 through about 21.

1. Peyton Manning
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Kurt Warner
7. Tony Romo
8. Phillip Rivers
9. Jay Cutler
10. Eli Manning
11. Carson Palmer
12. Matt Ryan
13. Aaron Rogers
14. Matt Hasselbeck
15. David Garrard
16. Marc Bulger
17. Kerry Collins
18. Chad Pennington
19. Jeff Garcia
20. Matt Shaub
21. Brett Favre
22. Trent Edwards
23. Joe Flacco
24. Jake Delhomme
25. Jason Campbell
26. Kyle Orton
27. Tyler Thigpen
28. Shaun Hill
29. Brady Quinn
30. JaMarcus Russell
31. Tarvaris Jackson
32. Dan Orlovsky

02-08-2009, 05:27 PM
AustinChief Administrator Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Austin Casino cash: $-754998	#3 overall pick... a 20 year history 08 Matt Ryan 07 Joe Thomas 06 Vince Young 05 Braylon Edwards 04 Larry Fitzgerald 03 Andre Johnson 02 Joey Harrington 01 Gerard Warren 00 Chris Samuels 99 Akili Smith 98 Andre Wadsworth 97 Shawn Springs 96 Simeon Rice 95 Steve McNair 94 Heath Shuler 93 Garrison Hearst 92 Sean Gilbert 91 Bruce Pickens 90 Cortez Kennedy 89 Barry Sanders Draw your own conclusions. As for myself, if this list is a good indicator, I would go DT, DE, OT or WR... unfortunately we don't have a need that pressing at OT and the DE, DT WR prospects are iffy that high... I am not in the anti-QB at all cost crowd.. I just really am not sold on THESE two QBs... esp. Stafford...
Posts: 20,021

02-09-2009, 02:36 AM	#77
RustShack **** That Noise Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Jack Trice Casino cash: $3036954	Seems like a good pick for a WR Don't show Haley or Piolis this list! __________________
Posts: 15,126

02-09-2009, 04:44 AM	#80
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1539523	What suprizes me is that there have been no kickers or punters drafted #3
Posts: 40,649

02-09-2009, 10:16 AM	#83
Manila-Chief Supporter Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Memphis/Miss Casino cash: $10006883	Austin, I, too, am not sure what your hang up is over junior QB’s? It’s scouting and not stats that determine if a player is worth a draft pick. It seems to it’s a matter of whether a QB has the talent, skills, intellect, attitude, etc. to be a great NFL QB or not? If he does, he can gain the experience in the NFL, if … (last year that would have been a giant IF for us) he received the coaching/opportunity by the team. You can teach experience but you can’t teach the intangibles. You say Sanchez started 16 games. I just looked up Tom Brady’s info on Wikipedia and it says he won 20 of 25. That’s 9 more games started but not a whole heck of a lot. Both, had to sit behind really good QB’s for years. (With Tom’s credentials, I wonder how in the world he could have been overlooked … I mean % of wins, championships, intellect, etc.??? Guess Pioli/N.E. recognized his greatness when Carl really didn’t know talent???, but that’s a side issue.) I noticed Brady graduated cum laude. Intelligence is a huge factor for a QB. Anybody know Sanchez/Stafford’s IQ? DeezNutz ... I agree, with you, that Sanchez is not a junior. He may be in football eligibility but not in school classification. Stafford has started more games than most drafted seniors. Both are more mature than a college freshman starting his first game, so it shouldn’t be an issue. Scouting is the issue. And, I humbly yield to Scott/Todd to make the determinations for all of our picks.
Posts: 2,152

02-09-2009, 10:45 AM	#84
BigRedChief Has a particular set of skills Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: On the water Casino cash: $-801038 VARSITY	So what is everyones theory that Haley will want a "Fitzgerald type" WR and take Crabtree at #3? __________________ Mahomes is not a game manager. Release the Kraken.
Posts: 81,343

02-09-2009, 11:27 AM	#86
Molitoth Mahomes Fanboi Join Date: Apr 2004 Casino cash: $154969	70% of statistics are over-rated.
Posts: 20,299