How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?

[MMXcalibur]

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by jswizzle6

Not sure if this is the place for this (may have missed a Chargers news mega thread), but seems related since it's a claim/argument about the AFC's #1 seed.

"The LA Chargers would be the no. 1 seed if Derwin James stayed healthy"
boltbeat[dot]com/posts/la-chargers-playoffs-afc-seed-derwin-james-injury (Sorry, can't post links yet)

Bold claim for a team that just got thoroughly worked by the Texans. We were without Gay, Jones, and Sneed for our game against them, which the writer claims they would have won if James were healthy. We all know the impact that injuries can have on a teams quality of play (see last year's Super Bowl), but this seems delusional.

James is known to be fragile; reminds me a bit of our time with Eric Berry. A well managed franchise would acquire depth, and a well coached team would prepare alternate strategies, to fill the inevitable void that appears with his frequent absences due to injury.

The Chargers should worry themselves more with beating teams like the Texans than being the #1 seed. Very much hoping the Dolphins, Ravens, or Raiders gets in over them.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by wachashi

We should be playing the Bengals to lock up the one seed, but Jimmy G turned into a pumpkin vs the Titans and singlehandedly lost that game.

I want the one seed, obviously, but at this point, I want that rest game against Denver almost just as much. I have PTSD from what injuries did to this team last year, costing us a Super Bowl and nearly killing our QB, so if we can rest our superstars in the last game of the season, I am 100% for that.

The Dolphins can absolutely beat the Titans and I'll be pulling hard for them this weekend. It depends on which Tannehill shows up. The one that beat the Chiefs or the one that could only score 13 points against the Texans, Pats, and Steelers. I hope it is the latter.

Tannehill just generally kind of sucks. If you can stop their running game and put him in a position where he has to pass, he almost certainly won't get it done. The Dolphins defense should be capable of that.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by jswizzle6

Not sure if this is the place for this (may have missed a Chargers news mega thread), but seems related since it's a claim/argument about the AFC's #1 seed.

"The LA Chargers would be the no. 1 seed if Derwin James stayed healthy"
boltbeat[dot]com/posts/la-chargers-playoffs-afc-seed-derwin-james-injury (Sorry, can't post links yet)

Bold claim for a team that just got thoroughly worked by the Texans. We were without Gay, Jones, and Sneed for our game against them, which the writer claims they would have won if James were healthy. We all know the impact that injuries can have on a teams quality of play (see last year's Super Bowl), but this seems delusional.

James is known to be fragile; reminds me a bit of our time with Eric Berry. A well managed franchise would acquire depth, and a well coached team would prepare alternate strategies, to fill the inevitable void that appears with his frequent absences due to injury.

When Berry saw his decline, we had far more depth problems than just safety, but it was still a noticeable hole that we struggled to work around. Didn't matter though. We still won the division in 17 and 18. And one of those years was with Alex Smith.

A terrific game-changing safety can set your team over the top, but it's never the backbone of your team's success. If the Chargers offense and Herbert is as good as everybody says they are, that shouldn't stop them from going to the playoffs.

And yet... they're currently on the outside looking in. They can't just win the rest of their games-- they need help elsewhere.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Titans are bad.

Before the season started, I'd have told you the Dolphins, even with mediocre lefty minority Alex Smith knock-off Tua at quarterback, were a better team than TN. Obviously the early part of the season, with a 7 game losing streak from Miami and a shellacking of the Chiefs by the Titans, changed that narrative.

But since then the Titans have spun their wheels (without Henry) while the Dolphins have ripped off 7 straight wins to put themselves in playoff position. Their defense, despite not having many stars, is playing damn good complementary football.

Their offense...uh...exists? Sorta. But if Tua can just do knockoff lefty Alex Smith stuff and get the ball underneath to Gesicki while getting it to Waddle and Parker in space, that's enough for 17ish points. And 17 may just win it w/ Tannehill being awfully spotty of late.

Tua can game manage them to a W if he just doesn't turn the ball over. I think he can manage that.

The Titans offense, without Henry to drive it and dictate matchups, just isn’t that good.

Tannehill is like a shitty version of Alex Smith (and ya’ll know how shitty I think Alex Smith was). If he can’t exploit 1x1 coverage on the outside, he’s not very effective.

They won the 49ers game because Tannehill threw some jump balls to AJ Brown and the 49ers had no answer. With Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, the Dolphins have a pair of corners who can match up with Brown and Jones. I don’t see Tenn getting as lucky this time around.

The Dolphins D also has been doing a really good job pressuring the QB recently. Both from its front four and when sending extra rushers. With the Titans line banged up, too, that doesn’t bode well for them.

[38yrsfan]

Execution and turnovers, officiating. As always are the key factors (obviously). Fair called game and Chiefs get the W.

[TimeForWasp]

kansas city chiefs

[Shaid]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFanatic

We missed the playoffs at 10-6, and the following year we made the playoffs at 9-7 after like 7 teams lost on the last day of the regular season, in the exact combination to get us in.

I think the NFL will eventually add another team, giving back the bye to the top two seeds.

Sent from my GM1915 using Tapatalk

yeah, I think eventually they'll add a play to get in weekend. All the wildcard teams play to decide the top wildcard teams that play the division leaders. I wouldn't be shocked if they still wanted to keep 6 games the following weekend though so you could still see the 2-4 seeds playing.

[TLO]

I give them about a 1.5% chance

[mr. tegu]

Time to talk about how we avoid the Chargers in round one.

[Gary Cooper]

About as good as my chances of banging Brittany Mahomes.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Time to talk about how we avoid the Chargers in round one.

And getting that dumb Monday night playoff game

[jettio]

If Titans beat Texans and remain number #1 seed.

I think 2 or 3 of the seeds 4 through 7 could beat Titans in divisional. Bills, Patriots, Colts and Chargers if they make it.

Chiefs would have to play an extra game, but I would not be surprised if AFC Championship is at Arrowhead because Titans face a tough matchup for them in their first game.

[Hammock Parties]

Odds for the 7th seed in the AFC, which would play KC on Wild Card Weekend if KC and TEN both win this week:

LAC 45.5%
IND 27.3%
BUF 10.6%
NE 9.0%
LV 5.6%
PIT 2.0%

— Bird Law Expert (@RealBirdLawyer) January 3, 2022

[RunKC]

Goddamnit I don’t want to play the Chargers

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Goddamnit I don’t want to play the Chargers

We beat them in their own house without Chris Jones, Willie Gay or LJarius Sneed.

We'll be fine.