***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Demonpenz]

Reaper16 once had a Burnt end Z-man. I think he is full of shit but he/she maybe telling the truth.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

Oscar-winning movie producer Harvey Weinstein has tested positive for #COVID19 virus at an upstate New York prison, CNHI has learned. Exclusive report coming from @TipMahoney #MeToo

— Joe Mahoney (@TipMahoney) March 22, 2020

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

Oscar-winning movie producer Harvey Weinstein has tested positive for #COVID19 virus at an upstate New York prison, CNHI has learned. Exclusive report coming from @TipMahoney #MeToo

— Joe Mahoney (@TipMahoney) March 22, 2020

What
A
Shame

[Donger]

The Best Case

I’ve been speaking to epidemiologists about their best- and worst-case scenarios to gauge what may lie ahead and see how we can tilt the balance. Let me start with the best case, since we could all use a dose of hope — which may even be therapeutic — before presenting a bleaker prognosis.

“The best case is that the virus mutates and actually dies out,” said Dr. Larry Brilliant, an epidemiologist who as a young doctor was part of the fight to eradicate smallpox. Brilliant was a consultant for the movie “Contagion,” in which a virus evolved to become more deadly, but that’s the exception. “Only in movies do viruses seem to become worse,” he explained.

Two other lethal coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, both petered out, and that is possible here. “My hope is that Covid-19 will not survive,” said Dr. Charles G. Prober, a professor at Stanford Medical School.

Several countries have shown that decisive action can turn the tide on Covid-19, at least for a time. China, astonishingly, on Thursday reported not a single new case of domestic transmission. While China is still vulnerable to a second wave, it has apparently shown that the virus can be squelched.

The West isn’t going to copy the coercive tactics of China, but Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have also demonstrated that, at least temporarily, the virus can be controlled.

Singapore and the other successful Asian models responded with the standard epidemiological tool kit: vigilance and rapid response, testing, isolating the sick, tracing contacts, quarantining those exposed, ensuring social distancing and providing reliable information. They did not shut down their entire countries, and Singapore managed to keep its schools open throughout.

“Singapore is a best-case scenario,” said Dr. Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He said that there was some possibility that with social distancing and limits on gatherings, the United States could knock down the numbers of infections and begin to adopt Singapore-style strategies to reduce new infections.

“The most important lesson is that the virus can be contained if people are responsible and adhere to certain simple principles,” said Dr. Christopher Willis, a physician in Singapore. “Stay calm. For most people it’s like the common cold.”

Dr. Tom Inglesby, an expert on pandemics at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said, “The fact that Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and China — and to some extent Japan — have all flattened their curves despite having the initial onslaught of cases should give us some hope that we can sort out what they’re doing well and emulate it.”

One encouraging sign is that in Washington State, which had an early outbreak, the number of positive tests appears stable.

The weather may also help us. Some respiratory viruses decline in summer from a combination of higher temperatures and people not being huddled together, so it is possible that Northern Hemisphere nations will enjoy a summer break before a second wave in the fall. That’s what happened during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic: It hit in the spring of 1918, went away but returned worse than ever in the fall.

Of the four coronaviruses that cause the common cold, two diminish in warm weather, while two are more variable. SARS and MERS did not have clear seasonal variations, and even seasonal flu is transmitted in the summer, although less than in winter. So while experts hope that hot weather will shortly bring a reprieve from the coronavirus — the flu is already on the retreat — there’s no solid evidence.

One reason for measured optimism is the prospect that antiviral medicines will beat the coronavirus; some are already in clinical trials. Scientists have hopes for remdesivir, originally developed for Ebola; chloroquine, an old anti-malaria drug; and some anti-H.I.V. and immune-boosting drugs. Many other drugs are also lined up for trials.

Even without proven treatment, the coronavirus may be less lethal than was originally feared, so long as health care systems are not overwhelmed. In South Korea and in China outside Hubei Province, about 0.8 percent of those known to be infected died, and the rate was 0.6 percent on a cruise ship.

That’s still roughly six times the rate of seasonal flu, about 0.1 percent, but Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University argues that the fatality rate may end up even lower. He warns that we are engaging in hugely disruptive interventions without firm evidence of the threat that the virus poses. Singapore has had more than 200 confirmed cases of the virus and not a single death.

About four out of five people known to have had the virus had only mild symptoms, and even among those older than 90 in Italy, 78 percent survived. Two-thirds of those who died in Italy had pre-existing medical conditions and were also elderly; Dr. David L. Katz, the former director of the Prevention Research Center at Yale University, notes that many might have died soon of other causes even if the coronavirus had not struck.

That said, a new C.D.C. study finds that of coronavirus cases in the United States requiring admission to the intensive care unit, nearly half involved patients under age 65; there is also concern about lasting lung damage among survivors.

Putting it all together, Dr. Tara C. Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University, said: “I’m not pessimistic. I think this can work.” She thinks it will take eight weeks of social distancing to have a chance to slow the virus, and success will depend on people changing behaviors and on hospitals not being overrun. “If warm weather helps, if we can get these drugs, if we can get companies to produce more ventilators, we have a window to tamp this down,” Smith said.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Sounds like the market is about to tank.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

Oscar-winning movie producer Harvey Weinstein has tested positive for #COVID19 virus at an upstate New York prison, CNHI has learned. Exclusive report coming from @TipMahoney #MeToo

— Joe Mahoney (@TipMahoney) March 22, 2020

It's possible Harvey dies but not by COVID19

"COVID19 did not kill Weinstein"

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Its hard to accept the large gap between social distancing and shelter in place on those graphs. I'm fine being sheltered in place(?), but doesn't feel like much has changed here as far as movement and the number of things considered essential kind of sends mixed signals.

Yeah... “essential services” so far pretty much seems to mean “everyone”

[suzzer99]

From a doctor in Seattle on another forum, referencing this WARNING:GRAPHIC article:

Everything in that article is exactly what I have experienced. It’s death, isolation, and stupidity every day. If I have to remove the breathing tube so we can let a patient die in peace while the family watches on FaceTime again I’m going to scream bloody murder. Requirements for PPE changes daily and it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with what is safe for us and safe for our patients. It is driven by what is available and how long we think we are going to have to stretch supplies.

Or I’m just tired and need a day off.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

as it stand right now you are not going to avoid getting it so why shut anything down other than to delay it? Old people stay home young go work

you read anything in this thread? This is your solution? Let’s just let everyone get it? Old people, stay home.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

older guy in a luxury high rise

being ordered to netflix and chill doesn't seem like a reason to suicide

losing your job and then losing a shit ton of net worth might be

maybe he got a double whammy and it was just too much

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

you read anything in this thread? This is your solution? Let’s just let everyone get it? Old people, stay home.

Delaying it is the whole point. Deaths are low right now due to the American medical system (as flawed as it is.) If hospitals are full and can't treat people ALL illnesses can become fatal.

Your appendix, colon obstruction, or kidney infection could kill you.

[Demonpenz]

best buy in st joe is open but they deliver the shit to your car door on the app.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

as it stand right now you are not going to avoid getting it so why shut anything down other than to delay it? Old people stay home young go work

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Sounds like the market is about to tank.

It has already tanked. It will require a complete restructure after all this is over...

[Rausch]

I hope Kevin Bacon doesn't get it.

We're all 7 handshakes away from that guy...